Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
The Saints Come Marching In
Last Sunday, during my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio Pregame Show, I suggested we might have been too dismissive of the Saints' Week 1 offensive fireworks because they came against the hapless Carolina Panthers.
My argument was the performance had as much to do with new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak using more motion than the Saints ever have to create mismatches, play-action to keep defenders off balance, and rollouts to give Derek Carr and his receivers more time for routes to develop, as it did the struggling Panthers. My cohost, Jeff Mans, wholeheartedly agreed.
Halfway through the Saints drubbing of the Cowboys in Dallas, we had further confirmation.
At halftime of that Week 1 win over the Panthers, the Saints led 30-3. At halftime of the win over the Cowboys, the Saints led 35-16.
According to Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith, that put New Orleans in rare company in NFL history. Only two other teams -- the 2001 Colts and 1968 Raiders -- scored at least 30 points in the first half of each of their first two games of a season.
With 91 points through two games, the Saints have the most points through two weeks of any team in the NFL in the last 15 years and the fourth-most ever.
Their two hot first-half starts have allowed the Saints to coast through the second halves on their way to a 2-0 record and an NFL-best plus-62 point differential.
New Orleans scored on their first 15 drives of the season with Carr at quarterback, scoring on all nine drives in the opener before Jake Haener replaced Carr. Then they got TDs on the first six possessions against the Cowboys before an interception ended that run.
Sportradar has tracked player participation since 2006, and no other quarterback in that span had led 15 straight scoring drives at any point of a season.
This Is Great, But . . .
As ESPN.com's Dan Graziano said, "You have to think at some point an opposing defense will figure something out and hold them under 40 points."
Sure. But expecting the Saints to continue outperforming pre-season expectations seems plenty reasonable.
As Footballguy Matt Waldman wrote, "The Saints have the personnel, coordinator, and scheme to be a top fantasy offense with Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed, Alvin Kamara, and Carr having fantasy value."
Waldman further explained that the Saints dismantled a good Cowboys defense on Sunday because Kubiak's expert application of his talent forced Dallas to account for too much.
As a result, Kamara scored four touchdowns on runs of 5, 12, and 7 yards and on a 57-yard reception. He finished with 115 rushing yards on 20 carries and two catches for 65 yards. Carr completed 11 of 16 passes for 243 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Shaheed had four catches for 96 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown.
For what it's worth, that 70-yard TD to Shaheed traveled 54.5 yards in the air.
It was Shaheed's seventh reception over 50 yards of air distance since the start of 2023, the most in the NFL. No other receiver has more than four.
Carr has totaled nine completions that traveled at least 50 yards of air distance since the start of last season, most in the NFL.
Adding to all that, the Saints' protection schemes worked beautifully against Micah Parsons, who, after the game, said it felt like he was fighting his way through a "maze" at times.
"Combined with a good Saints defense, New Orleans is the favorite to win the NFC South division," Waldman wrote, "And fantasy GMs should expect top-24 WR production from both Olave and Shaheed and top-5 RB value from Kamara."
The Prime Beneficiary
For the record, Kamara is currently RB1 overall with 66 fantasy points after rushing for 198 yards, adding 92 yards receiving yards, and scoring five touchdowns.
While his 33-point per-game average is totally unsustainable, Waldman's contention that Kamara could finish in as a top-5 running back is realistic because that's precisely what he was last year on a points-per-game basis.
NFL.com's Kevin Patra wrote, "Kamara looks vintage in Kubiak's offense, owning the perfect vision and slipperiness for the outside runs."
His four-TD outing in Dallas was the second game with at least four scores in Kamara's career. Kamara is the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to have multiple games with 150-plus scrimmage yards and four-plus scrimmage TDs.
The four touchdowns weren't a career-high for Kamara, as he had six in a 2020 win over the Vikings, but they did make him an easy choice for one of the league's weekly awards.
On Wednesday, Kamara was named the NFC's offensive player of the week. It's the third time Kamara has taken the honors with a 2021 game, joining the six-touchdown effort on the honor roll.
If nothing else, the veteran running back has put the kibosh on at least one question:
Alvin Kamara isn't washed up. He isn't old. That man is in his prime.
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) September 15, 2024
What's Next?
This week, Carr, Kamara, Kubiak, and the rest of the Saints host the Eagles. There's reason for optimism in New Orleans.
Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was pressured on just 2-of-14 dropbacks (14 percent) in the first half, the lowest rate he's faced in any half since Week 1 of 2023. But the lack of a pass rush might take a backseat to the Eagles' inability to stop the run.
The Eagles allowed 163 yards rushing to the Packers, with Josh Jacobs rolling for 84. The Falcons ran for 152 yards, with Bijan Robinson collecting 97 of those with a 6.7 yards per carry average. The team average was slightly better than Week 1 at 5.4 yards per rush.
Taking it all in, I'll not be dialing back on expectations for the Saints offense this week . . .
The Road To Greatness
Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson was the best player on the field in the first half Sunday against the 49ers, and he's off to one of the best starts to his career of any receiver in NFL history.
Jefferson had four catches for 133 yards at halftime, including a spectacular 97-yard touchdown, and the Vikings lead the 49ers 13-7.
That "spectacular" description might not do justice to the catch and subsequent run. This stat helps:
Jefferson traveled 127.5 yards in total in the play, the most distance traveled by a ball carrier on an offensive touchdown in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Whatever the case, with his first-half effort, Jefferson topped 400 career catches and 6,000 career yards.
Sunday's game was the 62nd game of Jefferson's NFL career, and he reached those two marks faster than almost anyone else in NFL history.
Lance Alworth also reached 6,000 career yards in his 62nd game in 1967 while playing for the San Diego Chargers of the American Football League. Alworth is widely regarded as the AFL's best receiver and one of the greatest receivers in the history of professional football.
Jefferson also reached 400 catches in his career in game No. 62. Only Michael Thomas, who reached 400 catches in 56 games, and Odell Beckham Jr., who reached 400 catches in 61 games, did it faster.
Meanwhile, Jefferson downplayed the quad injury that kept him from dominating the second half of Sunday's game. Head coach Kevin O'Connell gave an update on Jefferson's condition during his Monday press conference, and the word continued to be good about Jefferson's chances of playing against the Texans in Week 3.
"Justin did come in today feeling pretty good, which was a positive based upon the initial quad contusion that kinda happened on that run play," O'Connell said. "We'll be day-to-day with Justin."
Jefferson took part in the team's initial walkthrough practice on Wednesday. If all goes according to plan (and you'll want to watch our daily News page and Game Day coverage to verify his status), Jefferson will be back at it Sunday while continuing to help prove the anecdotal theory I've been hammering you with all offseason, including early in March, when I wrote the following in a Fantasy Notebook the week before free agency opened:
"It's clear Jefferson wants (Kirk) Cousins back, but it's just as clear that if Cousins doesn't return, Jefferson has no doubts he'll continue to produce. As he mentioned, he did so last year with Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall, each filling in after Cousins tore his Achilles.
"From a fantasy perspective, Jefferson's argument makes total sense.
"I talk about it often: Less-than-ideal quarterback situations don't destroy good receivers.
"Jefferson is a great receiver . . ."
In fact, Jefferson was WR3 on a points-per-game basis in the five-game stretch after his return from a hamstring injury last season, with the three quarterbacks mentioned as his triggermen.
Of course, Sam Darnold has been better than expected.
He's completed 72 percent of his passes so far and has four touchdown passes against two interceptions. He even ran for 32 yards Sunday. Per ESPN Research, it was the first time Darnold had consecutive games with multiple passing touchdowns since Weeks 14-15 of the 2019 season.
Worth noting: Darnold had the lowest completion percentage (59.7) and passer rating (78.3) in the NFL from 2018-2023 (among 39 QBs with 1,000-plus pass attempts).
As Graziano explained, Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell has taken the work Kyle Shanahan did with Darnold in San Francisco last year and built on it, and O'Connell believes he has Darnold -- still just 27 years old -- in the best situation he has ever been in and that his talent will help him thrive in it -- although playing at his current level might be a reach.
The Vikings' upcoming schedule is demanding -- vs. Texans, at the Packers, vs. Jets (in London), and vs. Lions.
Regardless, I expect Jefferson, assuming he's in the locked and upright position, to keep doing his thing by providing fantasy investors consistent WR1 production throughout the season . . .
Good Enough
By the way, Jefferson isn't alone in all that. I'm convinced Malik Nabers will also be in the WR1 conversation every week.
In the second game of his NFL career, Nabers caught 10 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown.
At 21 years and 49 days old on Sunday, Nabers became the youngest player ever with at least 10 receptions, 100 receiving yards, and a touchdown catch in a game.
At the risk of belaboring the point, this was another case where we might have overstated the impact of the quarterback and the offense in general while assessing the outcomes for a special player.
From the June 9 edition of the Fantasy Notebook:
"I know you've heard this before, but it bears repeating: Overlook receivers with less-than-ideal quarterbacks or who play in lackluster offenses at your own risk.
"The examples are copious.
"DJ Moore, with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent as his triggermen, and Mike Evans, playing with an unexpectedly effective Baker Mayfield, finished as WRs 6 and 7 last season.
"In 2022, Amari Cooper was WR11, playing with Jacoby Brissett most of the year.
"Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf finished that campaign as WRs 13 and 14, with Geno Smith outperforming expectations.
"But an even better example might be Adam Thielen.
"The veteran had 103 catches and finished as WR18 despite playing with Bryce Young, who had a historically lousy rookie season after being selected with the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The youngster threw 11 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, and the Panthers' offense was tied for the lowest-scoring in the NFL.
While the Giants, with Daniel Jones and Drew Lock in the top two spots on their depth chart, definitely qualify for less-than-ideal status, expecting Nabers to benefit from better play than Thielen did isn't a massive reach"
As it turns out, Jones knows what side his bread is buttered on.
Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason pointed out that Nabers saw two-thirds (64 percent) of Jones' targets in Week 2. That's 18 of 28 attempts going to Nabers.
We'll be fine with half that every week . . .
The Other Side Of The QB Coin
Of course, none of that means superior quarterback play doesn't add to the mix.
Ask Marvin Harrison Jr.., who rebounded from a horrible Week 1 showing in which he caught one pass for a mere 4 yards in a loss to the Bills. Worse yet, Harrison led the Cardinals in routes run in Buffalo, yet he had only three targets -- and had one obvious drop.
As NFL.com's Eric Edholm reported, Harrison quickly put that talk to bed Sunday.
In the first three-plus minutes of Sunday's game against the Rams, Harrison exploded for touchdown catches of 23 and 60 yards.
Harrison became the first rookie with four or more catches and two or more touchdowns in a first quarter since - incredibly - his father, Marvin Harrison Jr., did it in 1996 with the Indianapolis Colts. Harrison Jr. was even able to get one over on dad, totaling more receiving yards (130) in that first quarter than the elder Harrison had in any game as a rookie in 1996.
Better still, Harrison Jr. put up his positional-high 29 fantasy points despite playing less than 70 percent of Arizona's offensive snaps.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted, Harrison only played four-of-16 snaps in the fourth quarter, as he left the game earlier than most starters. Still, as Jahnke wrote, "There is no need to worry about that sub-70 percent snap share in this game."
That's especially true if Kyler Murray continues to play at a level close to what he did against the Rams.
Per the NFL, Murray became only the second player in league history to generate a perfect passer rating while throwing for 250 or more yards and rushing for 50 or more yards.
It last happened nearly 50 years ago when then Bengals quarterback Ken Anderson achieved those three distinctions.
Murray was 17 of 21 for 266 yards and three touchdowns. He added 59 rushing yards on five attempts.
Of course, this week will be interesting.
Aidan Hutchinson is coming off a four-sack game for the Lions, who visit Arizona. Darren Urban of the team's official website wrote, "Hutchinson vs Paris Johnson Jr. with the dose of Kyler's scrambling ability will be fascinating to watch."
Still, for those looking for Murray to have his best season thus far, he's off to a promising start . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL brings us a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez asked after Sunday's win in Baltimore: "So THIS is what the offense is supposed to look like?"
Probably so.
After an anemic six-plus quarters of football -- the Raiders had only 48 yards of offense at halftime -- the unit came to life in the second half in Baltimore.
Trailing by 10 points with 12 minutes to play, Las Vegas suddenly became an offensive juggernaut. The offense's awakening gave the defense a breather, and complementary football led to the win.
Gardner Minshew II's main two targets on the day were Davante Adams and rookie tight end Brock Bowers. They combined for 18 catches and 208 receiving yards, becoming the first duo in franchise history to have at least nine catches and 90 receiving yards a piece in a game.
Adams caught nine passes for 110 yards and the game-tying touchdown while Bowers continued to produce at a torrid pace.
The first-round pick is off to a start unlike any other rookie tight end in NFL history.
According to Smith, Bowers is the first tight end ever to have at least five catches and at least 50 receiving yards in each of the first two games of his career.
Bowers had nine catches for 98 yards against the Ravens. That followed a Week 1 debut where he had six catches for 58 yards.
Bowers has caught 15 of the 17 passes thrown to him for 156 yards, with eight of his catches going for first downs.
He's the No. 1 tight end in the league in catches, yards, and first downs. He's TE2 in all of fantasy, second only to Isaiah Likely, who scored 26.1 points in Week 1 . . .
By the way . . . If the Raiders can pick up the pace on offense, the possibility they'll be playing with a lead at some point becomes more realistic. All my Zamir White shares would greatly appreciate that opportunity after head coach Antonio Pierce suggested a more prominent role for White in Carolina this weekend.
"Our goal is to get 20-plus touches with him," Pierce said. "It ain't Zamir, we gotta start up front, man. The big boys up front gotta block. Bottom line."
So far this season, that's been easier to do against the Panthers than it has been against every other NFL team except the Colts . . .
The Bad
After Sunday's loss to the Browns, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence was blunt in his assessment of his 0-2 team, saying, "We suck right now."
As PFT's Mike Florio noted, the Jags have allowed 38 points in the first two weeks, so the sucking has been more pronounced on the offensive side of the ball.
Through two games, Lawrence has completed 51 percent of his passes for 382 yards with one touchdown. He was noticeably worse against the Browns, generating his lowest completion percentage over expected (-11.2) in a game since Week 2 of the 2023 season.
Losing tight end Evan Engram in pregame warmups to a hamstring injury forced the Jaguars to adjust their game plan less than two hours before Sunday's kickoff. There isn't another tight end on the roster who can do what Engram does, though Brenton Strange did step up in the intermediate pass game with three receptions for 65 yards.
According to ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco, going up against the Bills on Monday Night Football, making rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr.. a bigger part of the offense would be wise. He delivered a big play for the second week in a row against the Browns -- catching a 66-yard pass on a post pattern to set the Jaguars up inside the 10-yard line for their only touchdown.
He had only four targets in Week 1 and three in Week 2, but he's averaged 22.6 yards on his five catches.
More Thomas might lead to less sucking . . .
The Ugly
After a 2-16 start to his NFL career, the Carolina Panthers are replacing quarterback Bryce Young with Andy Dalton for Sunday's game against the Raiders.
That makes Young the first quarterback selected No. 1 overall in the common draft era (since 1967) to be benched for non-injury reasons.
While I stand by my argument that outstanding quarterback play isn't necessary for fantasy receivers to excel, NFL teams have a different perspective.
The 0-2 Panthers have been outscored 73-13 in the first two weeks, with their only touchdown coming on a scramble by Young, which was initially ruled a fumble.
The 60-point differential is the worst by a team in the first two games since 2019.
According to ESPN.com's David Newton, Carolina's offensive efficiency rating (.70) through two games ranks last out of 608 instances for Weeks 1-2 since it was first tracked in 2006, and they have converted two of 22 third-down opportunities, worst in the NFL.
The list goes on and on, but ultimately, the Panthers believe Dalton gives them a better chance of winning.
My quarterback theories notwithstanding, fantasy managers invested in Diontae Johnson probably feel the same . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, I'll see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
