Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the NFL season.
Let's dive in . . .
McCaffrey: The After-Action Review
After declaring Friday he had no doubt that he would play, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey was ruled out 90 minutes before Monday night's opener against the New York Jets.
McCaffrey has dealt with a calf and Achilles injury since the early days of training camp, with head coach Kyle Shanahan announcing the ailments on Aug. 6. Shanahan said then that McCaffrey would be out for a couple of weeks and not participate in the preseason. The expectation, though, was that the star running back would be able to get back in time for Monday's game.
On Friday, McCaffrey, who worked on a limited basis in practice all week, even said he was hopeful he would get his usual heavy workload.
And general manager John Lynch told KNBR radio Friday morning that McCaffrey would "be out there and ready to roll."
That didn't happen. If there's an immediate positive here, I suspect you won't hear similar optimism this week.
In his day-after-game conference call, Shanahan said McCaffrey would again be monitored daily this week as the 49ers prepare to play the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
According to Shanahan, the Achilles is holding McCaffrey, who worked on a limited basis in Wednesday's practice, back more than his calf.
"The Achilles is tendonitis, and that stuff comes and goes," Shanahan said. "And when it is acting up, it's something you've got to be very careful about."
While the official decision will likely again be made much closer to game time, NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport told viewers on Wednesday that McCaffrey "feels like a long shot" to play Sunday against the Vikings.
There's one additional factor for the Niners to consider, as their next two opponents -- the Vikings and Los Angeles Rams -- play on artificial surfaces.
"I'll ask the player how he's feeling," Shanahan said. "If they feel good and they're ready to go, they're ready to go. If they say I feel good on grass, but not on turf, that's usually a way of saying that you don't really feel that good. We'll see how he feels [Tuesday]. See the next day. And we'll see how he feels on Sunday."
Meanwhile, third-year veteran Jordan Mason replaced McCaffrey as the starter and dominated the Jets, posting 147 rushing yards and a touchdown on 28 carries.
So, how about some takeaways?
Nobody Is Telling You The Truth
Mason told ESPN's Lisa Salter immediately after the game that he was told last Friday he would be playing against the Jets.
That's interesting. The 49ers didn't apply the "questionable" label to McCaffrey until Saturday.
And as Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio noted, if Mason knew he'd be starting on Friday, the 49ers knew it, too. And they worked the injury-reporting system to hide the truth for as long as they could.
It exposes the inherent flaw to a set of rules that allows a team to label a player as "questionable," even if there's no real internal question about his status.
While the 49ers might have broken the spirit, if not the letter of the rules, the rules are so loose and incomplete that it allows teams to take subtle liberties.
Keeping the Jets in the dark for as long as possible helped them strategically. But Florio argues it also impacted the wagers (especially prop bets) placed in advance of the game.
It also impacted our fantasy football lineups.
What should we have known?
Clearly, those who cover the team on a daily basis didn't know. The group of well-connected national insiders were also in the dark.
We must remember that whether it's lying by omission or commission, teams (and their players) aren't above fooling you to fool their opponent.
Be More Skeptical
We all should have been more skeptical. In hindsight, I wish I had paid more attention to a video by Grant Cohn, who covers the Niners for SI.com.
Christian McCaffrey is questionable for Week 1. pic.twitter.com/iKyZA22eW0
— Grant Cohn (@grantcohn) September 7, 2024
Immediately after McCaffrey drew that questionable designation last Saturday, Cohn asked all the right questions.
And he made all the right points.
Specifically, Cohn reminded us the calf/Achilles issue dates back to Week 17 of last season. McCaffrey left that game against the Commanders in the third quarter and did not return. He took the following two weeks off as the 49ers rested their starters in Week 18 and had a bye week in the first round of the playoffs.
And even after all that rest, Cohn contends McCaffrey wasn't quite himself in the playoffs when he averaged just 4.5 yards per carry -- down from 5.4 yards per carry in the regular season.
Then McCaffrey had an entire offseason to rest his Achilles.
And yet he reinjured it almost immediately during training camp -- just after the 49ers gave him a new contract with lots of guaranteed money in it.
Which, Cohn believes, could mean his Achilles might never fully recover. It might be something that has to be managed all season.
Nobody can say this with certainty. But it's necessary to consider the possibility . . .
Don't Panic . . . Yet
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra put it: "Treat Week 1 like a lying toddler. Smile, gently correcting if necessary, knowing there is no ill will."
We may have forgotten this entire episode by October. Footballguy Adam Harstad offered up some comforting words along those lines on Tuesday:
"Great players are more important than you probably think," Harstad wrote. "And losing them for an extended stretch may not be as bad as you think."
To illustrate that point, Harstad offered up some compelling numbers: "McCaffrey averaged 24.7 points per game last year in PPR leagues, which was 7.7 points better than Breece Hall (who finished as RB2) and 9.9 points better than Bijan Robinson (who was RB8).
"That kind of positional advantage is nearly impossible to replicate. McCaffrey outscored Robinson by more per game than Robinson outscored Emari Demercado or Zamir White, who finished the year 56th and 57th at the position. A team could have two Top 10 running backs with Robinson (RB8) and Derrick Henry (RB9) and they'd still get beat out by a team starting McCaffrey and some random guy off of waivers."
The overall premise is that once McCaffrey returns, he will deliver leverage over the field weekly. That kind of edge can't be dismissed out of hand . . .
Big Picture View
Harstad continued by explaining, that's why, "despite dealing with a calf injury all throughout August, McCaffrey was the first player off the board in all 12 drafting platforms and formats we track in our aggregate ADP data. The upside more than justified the downside risk."
I don't disagree. But you might. And it's okay if you do.
There isn't a league where I had the 1.01, and I didn't smash the McCaffrey button when the draft started.
I did this knowing everything Cohn outlined. I did it for all the reasons Harstad outlined.
I did the same thing, under very similar circumstances, with Cooper Kupp last year, even though he was sidelined by a hamstring issue all summer.
I selected both players despite ample reasons for concern.
As Footballguy Clayton Gray said in an off-line conversation this week, "Take Lock is a powerful thing."
Mike Dempsey and I discussed it on Wednesday's Footballguys Daily Update Podcast.
As much as we love having the "player and a half" advantage a healthy McCaffrey offers, would we treat him the same if we knew today what we knew when we were drafting?
"I don't think there's any question we would not have done that," Dempsey said.
It's also possible that when McCaffery returns, it might take him some time to get up to speed. That's especially true with Mason showing you what he can do with a feature-back workload. The 49ers won easily on Monday night without McCaffrey. Jordan's ability to fill in will make it easier for the 49ers to be cautious with CMC.
I don't know if all this will drastically change my approach in the future, but Gray's words and the lessons learned over the last two years will be factors as I consider future possibilities . . .
Immediate Response
Per NFL Research, Mason's 28 carries were the most carries of any 49ers player in a game under Shanahan. With all the doubts about McCaffrey's availability this week (and perhaps beyond), Mason should have been a priority waiver addition.
He's also a must-start against Minnesota this week.
It's almost as much about the role the halfback plays in Shanahan's offense as the individual playing it. But Mason is clearly up for the challenge . . .
Long-Term Response
According to ESPN's Ben Solak, Mason is not going to bite into McCaffrey's volume once the star running back is healthy, nor does a split backfield make sense for San Francisco, which uses McCaffrey as a receiving threat with almost as much value as a ball carrier.
So yes, as ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner suggested, the Niners will always miss McCaffrey when he's unavailable. But the combination of him and Mason offers some tantalizing possibilities whenever McCaffrey returns.
What if you're a speculative player with an open spot on your roster?
Don't overlook rookie Isaac Guerendo.
While acknowledging Mason was the first man up, our own Matt Waldman noted while discussing McCaffrey's injury issues the last week of August, "Shanahan's musical chairs with running backs can be frustrating. Guerendo or a free agent could suddenly earn Shanahan's favor . . ."
Most Important
The most obvious takeaway is this: When you have questionable players heading in Monday night games, move them to your flex positions and set yourself up for the best possible success by adding potential pivots to your roster. Also, carefully consider all available options from the Sunday games.
It might not be ideal, but avoiding a zero can be the difference between a win or a loss on any given week . . .
Encouraging And Likely To Persist
Joe Mixon's Houston debut went well enough that he's received an accolade for it. As PFT reported, Mixon was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his season-opening performance in the Texans win over the Colts.
In his first game for the Texans, Mixon rushed for 159 yards on 30 carries with a touchdown. He also caught three passes for 19 yards in the 29-27 win.
Mixon said he told the offensive line earlier in the week, "Let's go get 150 to start it off."
It was an aggressive goal.
Mixon's 159 yards were the third-most rushing yards in his career and his most since 2021 when he rushed for 161 for the Bengals against the Steelers. Mixon had only one 100-yard game for Cincinnati last season, rushing for 111 in Week 17.
According to ESPN.com's DJ Bien-Aime, Mixon ran well against every defensive look the Colts threw at Houston. He ran for 88 yards against a light box, 34 yards against a neutral box, and 37 yards against a stacked box.
We learned that a healthy Mixon will benefit significantly from both volume and a high-powered offense in Houston.
What could that mean for you?
In Cincinnati, Mixon averaged 18-plus touches per game in all but his rookie season, and he's finished with at least 1,200 yards from scrimmage in five of his seven seasons. Besides that 2017 rookie campaign, the other outlier was 2020, when he was limited to six games due to injury.
His fantasy finishes those other five years?
He was RB9 in 2018, RB11 in 2019, RB3 in 2021, RB14 in 2022, and RB6 last season.
Adding to the intrigue, ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft recently pointed out that Mixon has scored at least 75 of his fantasy points inside the red zone in each of the past three seasons, the only running back who can claim that.
Cockroft added that's a testament to Mixon's excellence in scoring position, as are his league-leading totals of 34 attempts and 17 touchdowns on goal-line carries.
That's noteworthy with Mixon playing alongside a quarterback in C.J. Stroud, who is not known as a runner.
Assuming he continues to see similar volume in Houston, managers who invested a fourth-round draft pick in Mixon, who was RB16 in our final Footballguys ADP data, will have a huge win . . .
Encouraging, But Will It Persist?
Asked last week how he'd split the carries between Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman pledged to ride "the hot hand."
Edwards got the start, but Dobbins spontaneously combusted, carrying the ball 10 times for 135 yards and a touchdown in a 22-10 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1.
With runs of 46 yards and 61 yards -- the longest since his rookie year of 2020, Dobbins hit the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time since Week 15 of the 2022 season. Dobbins scored on a 12-yard run on the opening play of the fourth quarter.
As for the 61-yard run, a play that put the offense in the red zone and led to the game-sealing touchdown by Ladd McConkey a couple of plays later, Justin Herbert was impressed.
"You have the belief that every play could be a big play like that," the QB said.
After injuries limited him to playing in just nine of 51 possible games, those explosive runs showed that Dobbins is all the way back, and as NFL.com's Dan Parr suggested, with a coaching staff committed to running the ball and a plus matchup against Carolina this weekend, Dobbins is absolutely a flex-level fantasy starter.
How should Edwards' investors see this?
While Dobbins saw a larger share of the snaps than your guy (who also happens to be one of my guys), it was only 58 to 42 percent.
Edwards still has value as a goal-line back, but with Dobbins establishing himself as the more explosive and dangerous threat, I'll be parking "The Bus" on my bench until we see more . . .
Rookie Receivers Yield Mixed Results
Arizona rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. caught one pass for four yards against the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.
He was targeted three times during the game.
How did quarterback Kyler Murray take all this?
"As a quarterback, obviously, you're going through your reads," he said. "Sometimes the ball goes to him, but that's not my job. I have a sense and a feel for guys when they don't get the ball and when they are getting the ball, but I leave that up to (offensive coordinator Drew Petzing). He tells me, 'Don't worry about that type of stuff. Just keep playing your game and get the ball to where the ball is supposed to go.'"
While Harrison should be more involved in Week 2 against the Rams, a passing attack based on Harrison appears unlikely for now.
As for using him in your line?
Harrison opens Week 2 as WR37 on the Footballguys Projections. That makes him a borderline starter in three-receiver leagues . . .
Meanwhile, Giants rookie Malik Nabers was good for five receptions for a game-high 66 yards on seven targets in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings in his NFL debut.
Nabers was on the field for all the Giants' 70 offensive snaps. Quarterback Daniel Jones was the only other player on the field for every play.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke suggested, given how much the Giants will likely need to pass this season, Nabers can remain in fantasy starting lineups.
His initial Footballguys Week 2 Projection is WR15 . . .
If you enjoyed the off-season version of the Fantasy Notebook, you know my stance on this. I made the same argument on Harrison and Nabers as I did on Bijan Robinson, who I felt was going earlier than he should (in the first round), and Jahmyr Gibbs, who was going later than he should (in Rounds 3 and 4).
For me, landing Nabers at a cost in Round 4 was wise, while drafting Harrison at the end of the first round or early in Round 2 was an overly expensive proposition, considering we were paying a considerable premium that required a rookie to hit a ceiling we've yet to see him reach.
I'm not going to take a hard and fast stance on most anything after a single game, but taking draft-day discounts on players with similar ranges of outcomes will always be my go-to move . . .
Young QBs Hit Big
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels completed 17 of his 24 passes for 184 yards and rushed 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-20 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1.
Daniels became the first rookie QB all-time with 50-plus rush yards in a Week 1 debut. He set a Commanders QB record with 16 carries and had the 4th-most rushing yards by a Commanders QB all-time.
The big issue is other than Daniels using his legs, the offense came up short.
NFL.com noted that running backs Austin Ekeler (4/52) and Brian Robinson (3/49) led Washington in receiving, underscoring the types of passes Daniels was throwing. The rookie completed just one pass of 10-plus-air yards and only attempted four.
It was surprising that Washington didn't air it out more. We'll see if there's more emphasis on that heading into this week's game against the Giants . . .
Colts QB Anthony Richardson only completed 9-of-19 passes for 212 yards, but two were touchdowns in a Week 1 loss to the Texans.
Richardson added six runs for a game-high 56 yards and another score.
Richardson's 60-yard TD pass to Alec Pierce traveled 65.3 yards in the air. It was the third-longest completion in the Next Gen Stats era.
As NFL.com's Michael Baca suggested, in addition to what might have been the most eye-opening TD throw of the week, the second-year man was far too inconsistent passing the ball to produce a winning effort. There were a handful of plays where open receivers saw passes sail over their heads, including a moment in the second quarter where Adonai Mitchell was in position for a would-be score.
Despite Richardson's struggles, the Colts wouldn't have been in the game without their QB . . .
Fantasy managers getting top-five efforts from Daniels (QB3) and Richardson (QB5) won't sweat the details and lapses from Week 1 as they happily insert both into their starting lineups again this week.
As DLF.com's Mike Faiella suggested during a Tuesday appearance On The Hotseat, it's a reminder that being a great NFL player isn't a prerequisite for being a great fantasy play . . .
What Can No. 2 Do For You?
For the most part, the top-five QB performances in Week 1 didn't catch me off guard. As noted above, I was keen on Daniels and Richardson. Josh Allen finishing any week as QB1 isn't going to make waves any more than Lamar Jackson finishing as Q4 will.
But Baker Mayfield's QB2 finish?
In a week where the list of quarterbacks who fell short of expectations was lengthy, Mayfield's success might seem even greater than it was.
But it was great nonetheless.
Mayfield completed 24 of his 30 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns in Tampa Bay's 37-20 win over the Commanders.
As NFL.com explained, "The best word to describe Mayfield at this time is comfortable. Comfortable in his skin. Comfortable in Tampa. Comfortable in Liam Cohen's offense. Comfortable in the pocket. Comfortable dropping dimes to Mike Evans. Comfortable threading the needle to Chris Godwin on third down. Comfortable escaping sacks and turning negatives into positives . . ."
Mayfield hit the ground running, leading the Bucs on five consecutive scoring drives to open the game. The veteran signal-caller tossed four touchdowns in a contest that never really felt in doubt after the first quarter. Despite an offensive coordinator change, Mayfield didn't miss a beat to open the season.
He'll try to keep it rolling against the Lions in Detroit this week . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and all the other goodness available weekly.
Beyond that, I hope you'll subscribe to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. You'll get a daily 10-minute dose of news that matters most, all put in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
I'll also do two live streams on The Audible channel each week: On The Hotseat will stream every Tuesday at 7 pm ET. My Ask Me Anything stream will go live every Saturday at 11 am ET. Lineup questions, roster management, music, food, cats . . . It's all fair game.
Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook. See you then.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
