Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Officially In Command
The Washington Commanders made the expected official: Jayden Daniels is their starting quarterback.
Head coach Dan Quinn announced the move Monday, though Daniels, the second overall pick in April's draft, had been working with the first-team offense exclusively in training camp for the past three weeks.
Quinn and the Commanders played coy in the weeks leading up to the announcement. But there was never really a question.
"We knew we would get here," Quinn said, "but we were just excited to see how we would. Seeing him hit all the spots, this is a rare competitor. He's just had a remarkable start to things."
Though the news was more of a formality, Daniels said he didn't take anything for granted and said it filled him with "joy and happiness."
He also understood why they wanted to take their time to make the decision.
"They didn't want to go out there and [immediately say] hey, you're a starter," Daniels said. "I haven't earned anything. What I did in college was great. Now it's time for a new slate, clean slate. I have to prove it not only to myself, not only to the coaches, but to my teammates."
Daniels is correct. What he did at the previous level was great.
With 55 starts over five seasons in college, Daniels isn't an inexperienced first-year player. As ESPN.com's John Keim put it, "The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner is pre-built and ready straight out of the box."
At Arizona State and LSU, he compiled 12,750 passing yards and 89 touchdowns. Those aren't "needs time to learn from the sideline" numbers.
The biggest question entering training camp and the preseason was how comfortable he'd be in Kliff Kingsbury's offense.
Daniels answered that emphatically during his brief preseason appearances by completing 12 of 15 passes for 123 yards in two exhibition games.
In his first outing, Daniels did not throw a touchdown pass but did score on a three-yard run against the New York Jets on a zone read. Also against New York, he completed a 42-yard pass to receiver Dyami Brown after checking out of a screen pass based on the coverage.
His confidence to change the play on the first third down he faced affirmed the rookie's place atop the pecking order.
In the team's second game, Daniels completed 10-of-12 passes for 78 yards in Miami, showing off a quick release that avoided pressure on multiple rushes and prevented him from being hit in the pocket. According to Next Gen Stats, Daniels' average time before throwing against the Dolphins was 2.02 seconds.
His performance in Miami further reinforced that this wasn't much of a "competition" to begin with.
Still, team officials wanted to see how he handled each step.
According to Keim, Daniels impressed Quinn by correcting his mistakes, often knowing what went wrong before the coaches told him. In addition, his work ethic, poise in the pocket, and a personality that draws in teammates have been cited as positive attributes.
Quinn has said Daniels brings a mix of "humility and swagger."
Keim added that the qualities that stood out to Washington before the draft are the same ones it has praised since he joined the team, but the team wanted to ensure Daniels was ready.
He is.
But Is He Ready To Be Your Fantasy Starter?
That depends on how you play the game.
Footballguy Jason Wood laid it out well in an article published on the site as camp opened, in which he highlighted six reasons Daniels is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick at quarterback. Wood explained, "You need to understand that Daniels has an every-week upside but also stands a genuine chance of being a wasted draft pick that you'll be dumping for the hot waiver wire free agent."
That is 100 percent correct. And it makes Daniels a polarizing figure.
Our own Sigmund Bloom wrote: "If Daniels stays healthy, Justin Fields value with the Bears should be his floor."
Fields finished as QB6 and QB10 on a points-per-game basis in his last two years as Chicago's starter.
Footballguy Matt Waldman, the author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio, isn't as keen on Daniels. While he acknowledges Daniels has the potential to become a good starter, Waldman would prefer the newcomer sit for a year before running the Commanders offense.
"I don't believe his preseason is indicative of what we'll see beyond 3-5 games in the regular season," Waldman added.
I've made no secret of my willingness to roll with Daniels at cost.
One more time: He threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions at LSU last season. He delivered 103 explosive plays along the way. He rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs.
That combination of big play and rushing ability set him apart, and it's why he heads into training camp as QB11 on the Footballguys redraft rankings.
That ranking aligns with his average draft position, with Daniels being drafted as QB12 in the ninth round.
What makes it easy for me to go with the rookie is the pool of talent still available at the position after Daniels is gone. Players like Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith are all on the board when Daniels comes off.
Of course, it would be even easier to roll with Daniels if the Commanders could get him to slide instead of taking on opposing defenders at the end of his runs . . .
Man Overboard
Meanwhile, we learned heading into last weekend that Jahan Dotson was battling Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, and third-round pick Luke McCaffrey for Washington's No. 2 receiving role.
That's no longer the case.
The Commanders traded Dotson, a former first-round draft pick, to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday.
The Eagles secured a No. 3 to complement starting wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith by acquiring Dotson, who adds another weapon for Jalen Hurts, already surrounded by Brown, Smith, running back Saquon Barkley, and tight end Dallas Goedert.
It had been a rotating cast at WR3 in Philadelphia this summer, with veterans Parris Campbell and Britain Covey and rookie Johnny Wilson among the wideouts receiving first-team reps.
What kind of expectations should we have for Dotson in Philadelphia?
Footballguy Dave Kluge made a salient point to his X followers by noting that -- with rare exceptions (we see you, T.J. Hockenson), we don't see deals like this.
My take on the Jahan Dotson trade is that teams don't usually trade good players inside their division.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 22, 2024
Beyond that, the concerns are pretty obvious.
Last year, the three Eagles wide receivers not named Brown and Smith combined to catch 36 passes. The year before, two receivers combined for 48.
So, with Brown, Smith, Barkley, and Goedert in the pecking order, how might Dotson become a significant contributor in Philadelphia?
Well . . . The Eagles have a new offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore. According to Wood, the WR3 in Moore's previous stops in Dallas and with the Chargers averaged a 13.1 percent target share.
Is that enough to get me excited about drafting a player who looks like the fifth receiving option in this passing attack?
No.
I might be slightly encouraged by a change of scenery as a Dynasty investor. Still, Dotson won't be a redraft target for me any more than the Commanders holdovers not named Terry McLaurin -- Brown, Zaccheaus, or McCaffrey -- will, and I like Daniels a lot.
I feel like a bit of a hater after all that, so let me acknowledge my Dynasty interest in McCaffrey . . .
Bo (Nix) Knows . . . He's The Starter
Head coach Sean Payton named Rookie Bo Nix the Broncos' starting quarterback on Wednesday.
It wasn't a huge surprise.
Nix had taken most of the snaps with the starting offense in recent practices, including during the team's joint practice against the Packers before their second exhibition game against Green Bay.
Nix against the Packers, finishing 8-of-9 passing for 80 yards and a touchdown in the Broncos' 27-2 victory at Empower Field at Mile High. In two preseason appearances, Nix led the Broncos on scoring drives in six of his seven possessions.
The Broncos had multiple first downs in every one of Nix's drives, albeit mostly against reserves for both the Colts and the Packers.
Nix said Payton informed him before Wednesday's practice of the decision he would be the starter.
"He walked up and said he was going to tell you guys this afternoon, so let's have a good practice," Nix said with a smile. ". . . We all attacked every day like we were the starter . . . So if you go with that mindset, when they tell you, it shouldn't change much because you've been practicing that way, and that's your daily habit.
". .. [Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson] have pushed me extremely hard. I've learned a lot from those two and wouldn't be here without them pushing me along . . . I'm really thankful for that."
When Nix lines up behind center for the September 8 regular-season opener in Seattle against the Seahawks, he will be the first Denver rookie to start the regular-season opener since John Elway in 1983.
"Obviously, that's great to share with such a great player as John Elway," Nix said. ". . . You just want to go out there and get the first win, ultimately compete at a high level, and give your team the best chance to win."
In addition, Nix is now the first rookie quarterback to open a season starting for Payton, who enters his 18th season as an NFL head coach.
Payton has consistently praised Nix's maturity, decision-making, accuracy, and composure -- all attributes you'd expect after Nix played in 61 games in five college seasons at Auburn and Oregon combined.
Footballguy Cecil Lammey, who also covers the Broncos daily, considers Nix an ideal fit for Payton's system. Nix is a smart and accurate quarterback with mobility that will surprise some defenders.
So we love Nix in dynasty formats, but as a rookie starter in 2024, he'll likely struggle.
Wood, who leads the projections on the site, has Nix at QB25, ahead of Derek Carr, Bryce Young, Sam Darnold, and Daniel Jones.
I have Young a shade ahead of Nix, but not by enough to argue with Wood, and we're not recommending either as more than a QB3 in 2QB and Superflex formats.
The bigger question is what Nix does for the other fantasy prospects here. And again, nobody on this offense is cost-prohibitive. Courtland Sutton is the most expensive receiving asset. He's WR47 going in Round 9.
So, taking shots on Sutton, Tim Patrick, who caught a touchdown pass from Nix against the Packers last weekend, and Marvin Mims Jr. is fine.
Finer still?
What about my favorite late-round running back, Jaleel McLaughlin, who's currently RB50, going in Round 13?
Payton loves his receiving backs. And while some might complain that almost a third of Nix's collegiate attempts were thrown to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, all my McLaughlin shares couldn't be happier with it . . .
Overreaction SZN?
Processing information with reason and logic can be challenging under the best circumstances. For fantasy managers heading into their drafts as August winds down, it's even more demanding.
We project some remarkable outcomes based on what might be mundane circumstances.
If you haven't already heard some of it, you likely will. You'll undoubtedly hear some now because I'm going to use a couple of items that drew heavy attention last week to help you navigate the fastest-moving portion of the NFL and fantasy football year.
In Las Vegas, Raiders running back Zamir White has high expectations being placed on him heading into the 2024 season after his excellent four-game stretch to close out the 2023 campaign.
As SI.com's Hondo Carpenter framed it, so far this preseason, White has had an "interesting" role based on his playing time.
Interesting is an understatement.
After doing his usual charting of playing time after the team's second exhibition game, Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus wrote of "concern around" White.
Jahnke said: "For the second straight game, White played deeper into the preseason than most would expect."
Jahnke went on to detail that playing time. He compared it to when and how much teammates Alexander Mattison and rookie Dylan Laube played and wondered if it foreshadowed more of a rotation than we expected. Perhaps one that could push White from a borderline fantasy starter to a backup in most fantasy leagues.
The bottom line, per Jahnke, is: "It is pretty unheard of for a starting running back to be playing in the second half of any preseason game, outside of rookies working their way up the depth chart."
First, Jahnke's work is fantastic and valuable; I review it weekly throughout the season.
When viewed in a vacuum, this particular info paints a bleak picture.
But I highlighted this story to demonstrate things don't happen in a vacuum. In this case, we have considerable history and context to include in the narrative.
There always is.
For example, Jahnke added some to his report that in the previous three seasons, only one running back who played in the second half of the second preseason game finished as a top-50 fantasy running back. And that player, Devonta Freeman in 2021, had some unusual context.
But what about the context surrounding White?
According to Carpenter, what needs to be added to Jahnke's analysis is that White isn't your typical starting NFL running back. He only has four career starts under his belt and is entering his first season as -- what we hope will be -- a full-time starter. The Raiders might just be trying to give White a variety of situational play.
Carpenter acknowledges the plan could also be to have White and Mattison share reps this season, although that doesn't mean White's role will be less valuable.
I would add further context by noting that when former Raiders running back Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing in 2022, he accounted for nearly 80 percent of the team's carries. He was on pace for a similar percentage last season before sustaining the quad injury that opened the door for White to show off his abilities.
White responded to a similar workload by averaging 114.3 yards from scrimmage over his four-game run.
Even more context: I spoke with USA Today Raiders Wire Managing Editor Marcus Mosher early in camp. Mosher explained why he's all in on White, saying it's because the Raiders are all in on White. Mosher told me Jacobs could have returned the final two games last year, but coaches stuck with White because they felt he brought more juice to the backfield.
Adding that head coach Antonio Pierce loves White, Mosher expects the heavy workload we saw when Jacobs went down -- White averaged 24 touches per game during that span -- to continue this year. Mosher believes 225 to 250 carries are realistic.
A little more context: Still on his rookie contract, there's no reason for the Raiders to limit White's workload.
So, what's the correct answer here?
Carpenter and Mosher are plugged in with coaches and team officials. They hear things. Jahnke is providing hard data and historical information.
It's our job as fantasy managers to understand the data and apply the context. All of it. And the beauty of that is we can all draw conclusions and build our teams as we see fit.
In this case, I have a few final items to plug into the matrix of information compiled and presented here.
Like they did last year, we should expect the Pierce-led Raiders to lean into their stout defense and strong rushing attack to win games -- much like they did under Pierce late last season, including White's four starts.
White was RB9 over that stretch. He's currently being drafted as RB23 at the start of Round 7.
He's RB32 on the Footballguys Consensus Draft Rankings. He's RB23 on my own rankings.
One final bit of context: I mentioned that Jacobs led the NFL in rushing in 2022.
On August 5 that year, Jacobs received significant playing time over the Raiders' first two drives in the annual Hall of Fame game. The Raiders' decision to give Jacobs extensive snaps in what might be the most meaningless game possible raised some eyebrows. Jacobs was the only starter among the team's skill players to even dress for the game, let alone play in it.
I know, different coach, different GM, different circumstances. However, the conversation surrounding Jacobs' playing time in that game was very similar to what we heard about White this week.
Jacobs finished as fantasy's RB3 that season . . .
QB Intrigue In ATL?
In Atlanta, we have another mystery from Week 2's preseason action.
It arises from the Falcons unexpected decision to keep rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out of Saturday's visit to Baltimore.
After selecting him at No. 8 overall to be the heir apparent to Cousins, why have coaches decided to limit the rookie quarterback's preseason playing time?
To be fair, Penix was on the field for 24 snaps in the preseason opener against Miami -- and he played well. But he did not play against the Ravens, and head coach Raheem Morris didn't play Penix against the Jaguars in Friday's preseason finale.
Morris said after holding him out against Baltimore that Penix had shown enough against the Dolphins not to play again in the preseason.
It's absolutely fair to wonder why coaches aren't letting Penix go through the process of preparing for and playing in two games.
As Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio put it, if, as we've been led to believe, Cousins will start and Penix will serve as the backup, why not let Penix play in the preseason?
One reason for this unusual plan is that Morris does not want his top players on the field during the preseason, per ESPN. Morris also said on "Up & Adams" that injury concern is a factor, adding Penix would be playing behind backup offensive linemen.
The conventional thinking is that Penix would benefit from those snaps more than his draft classmates, such as Caleb Williams, Daniels, and Drake Maye, since he may not start one game this season.
So, yes. It's odd. And it's leading to all kinds of speculation -- including the possibility that Penix will be the Week 1 starter -- over Cousins, who signed a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed this offseason.
We call that an overreaction.
Whatever the truth, even if keeping Penix from getting reps in the preseason if he won't be getting any during the 2024 regular season makes zero sense, it's worth remembering Cousins, who was QB4 when he went down with his torn Achilles last year, averaged 4,263 passing yards and 31 touchdowns per season from 2015 to 2022 . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. With Week 1 looming, staying on top of all the latest developments becomes essential.
The Footballguys team-by-team Preseason Reports offer a great starting point in your 2024 journey. Week 3 is available now. Week 4 will be available late Monday or early Tuesday. Then be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, listen to the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, released every weekday morning. I give you a 10-minute rundown of news that matters most and put it all in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
Check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sirius Channel 87.
