Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
A Deeper Love
According to ESPN's Rob Demovsky, the 65-yard touchdown pass that Dontayvion Wicks caught in stride on the third play of the Packers exhibition opener in Cleveland was reminiscent of the 17 deep balls Jordan Love connected on last year.
Only two quarterbacks hit on more throws of 25 or more air yards last season: New Orleans' Derek Carr and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa with 19.
But even with 17 deep-throw connections last season, Love's completion rate on those passes was no better than 15th among all quarterbacks. That's why improving his 34.7 percent success rate on throws of 25-plus air yards has been a focus in training camp.
Last summer, Love struggled to hit his speed receivers in practice. According to Demovsky, deep ball after deep ball hit the ground, many underthrown.
In the first seven games of last season, Love completed just 7 of 25 throws that went at least 25 yards in the air. At 28 percent, he ranked 23rd among all starting quarterbacks in completion percentage on those plays. Five quarterbacks were at 50 percent or better on those throws last season.
That wasn't the case late last season.
Love showed significant improvement during the last 10 games. He completed 10 of 24 on deep throws to rank 11th in the league at 41.7 percent.
"I think a lot of it was with him early last year; he was kind of forcing balls down the field," offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. "Once he just understood, 'OK, it might not be there. Bang, hit your checkdown.' So he was hitting a lot more checkdowns. And then, when the open balls were there, he was hitting them, you know what I mean? He wasn't forcing it. So I think it was just basically taking what the defense gives you and having that understanding of being patient. I think that was big for him."
It was big for fantasy investors, too.
Over the final eight weeks, Love scored a quarterback-leading 153 fantasy points. His 21.9 point per game average ranked third best behind only Josh Allen's 24.6 and Lamar Jackson's 24.4.
Who's No. 1?
According to local observers, Love's deep-ball prowess has carried over into training camp.
So, if Love is improving as a deep passer, how should fantasy managers invest in his receiving corps, and who is the team's WR1?
Fair questions. But don't ask head coach Matt LaFleur.
"I want to vomit every time I hear 'No. 1 receiver,' to be honest with you," LaFleur said Monday. "It drives me crazy. That's something that you guys talk about. I feel like we've got a bunch of them."
The pecking order at this position has been a question LaFleur has faced often in the aftermath of the March 2022 trade of Davante Adams to the Raiders. The Packers didn't have a single catch last season by a receiver with more than two years of NFL experience because they didn't have one of those on the roster.
Nonetheless, Love managed to throw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns.
Then-rookie Jayden Reed led the Packers with 64 catches and 793 yards last season. His eight touchdown catches tied Romeo Doubs for the team lead. Christian Watson had the best yards-per-catch average with 15.1 but was limited to just nine games because of a recurring hamstring injury. Wicks ranked second to Watson last season with a 14.9-yard average and four touchdowns.
And, of course, none of them posted the Packers' first 100-yard receiving game last season.
That honor belonged to Bo Melton, who wasn't even on the regular 53-man roster when he did it; he was a game-day elevation from the practice squad for the second-to-last game of the regular season when he caught six passes for 105 yards and a touchdown on Dec. 31 against the Vikings.
"They're all capable of being a 'No. 1' in some capacity," LaFleur said before suggesting how they want to attack a given opponent determines usage.
So, how do we sort this out?
If there's a receiver who Love has the kind of connection with that Aaron Rodgers had with Adams (or Jordy Nelson before that), Demovsky believes it's Doubs.
Entering his third season, Doubs is coming off a stellar postseason. In two playoff games, he caught 10 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown, including five for 151 in the Packers' victory over the Cowboys.
I'm not in a position to disagree with that. Still, Watson's big-play potential is appealing at cost.
With an average of 15.0 yards per catch over his first two seasons, only 13 receivers with at least 100 targets over that span have a higher yards per catch average. We've had glimpses of how high the ceiling might be here. Watson scored four touchdowns from Week 11 to 13 last year. You might also remember his four-game, seven-touchdown stretch he delivered as a rookie in 2022.
Adding to the intrigue, in many of the 13 practices to date this summer, Love's deep shots have often landed in Watson's hands.
"I think we're in a really good spot," Watson said. "We've got four weeks 'til Game 1, so we've got plenty of time to work on it still, plenty of opportunities. But I think that we've connected well on it so far, and I think it's only going to get better from here on out. So I think we're in a good spot."
Watson, who has 69 catches for 1,033 yards and 12 touchdowns in 23 games, is currently being drafted as WR40. That's one spot after Bears rookie Rome Odunze and one ahead of Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy, neither of whom have had the opportunity to demonstrate similar upside.
All that said, none of the Green Bay wideouts are cost-prohibitive.
Reed is WR36, Doubs is WR51, Wicks is WR61, and Melton as WR116 is a free-square play, so it's not hard to argue that pairing any of them with Love -- going in Round 7 as QB10 -- represents a reasonable approach . . .
It's Elementary, Watson
Ken Dorsey is the Browns offensive coordinator, but head coach Kevin Stefanski will still call the offensive plays.
So why go out and land Dorsey?
The Browns have made it clear from the time they hired Dorsey what their motivation was.
He was hired to get Deshaun Watson on track.
I went through this back in March, but it's worth revisiting.
In his first season with the Bills, Dorsey worked with quarterback Josh Allen, who tallied the biggest improvement in QB rating in the NFL in 2019.
In 2020, Dorsey helped Allen finish second in the MVP voting, and Allen set single-season franchise records for passing touchdowns (37), completions (396), 300-yard games (8), passer rating (107.2), completion percentage (69.2), passing yards (4,544), and total touchdowns (46).
Allen also became the first player in NFL history with at least 4,000 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and eight rushing touchdowns in a season in 2020.
In addition to having great success with Allen, Dorsey also helped coach Watson's close friend Cam Newton to an NFL MVP and a Super Bowl berth in 2015 when he was with the Panthers.
So, if the objective is to get the most out of Watson, the question is this: What is Watson capable of when he's at his best?
Before he arrived in Cleveland, Watson compiled elite numbers during a four-year run with the Texans.
Watson left Houston with the highest completion percentage in NFL history (67.8 percent) among all players with at least 1,500 passing attempts. He led the NFL in passing yards with 4,823 in 2020 and set the Texans' franchise record with 33 passing touchdowns that same season.
Watson also became the first player in NFL history to record consecutive seasons (2018-19) with at least 25 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns.
Other highlights include being the first player in NFL history to surpass 10,000 career passing yards and 1,000 career rushing yards in his first 40 games. Waston also had five passing touchdowns three times in a game and did not record an interception in any of those contests. He registered a career-high 426 passing yards against Atlanta on Oct. 6, 2019.
More importantly, he was a top-5 fantasy quarterback in three out of his four seasons in Houston.
He was QB26 as a rookie in 2017, followed by a pair of QB4 seasons (2018 and '19) with a QB5 finish in 2020, his final season with the Texans.
Watson has fallen far short of that since making his Browns debut late in the 2022 season.
Limited by suspension and injury, he's played just 12 games for Cleveland over the last two seasons. He's completed 60 percent of his throws for 2,217 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He's finished as QB36 in fantasy in both campaigns as a Brown while averaging a mediocre 14.2 fantasy points per game.
So how do they fix that?
"He needs reps, needs live action," Dorsey told ESPN's Dan Graziano as training camp opened.
To achieve that objective, the Browns put hands on Watson.
During practices, even their early non-padded walk-throughs, the Browns surrounded Watson with disturbances. Getting people near or tapping him with pads as he dropped back to simulate game conditions was a priority.
But the Browns also decided this offseason that they hadn't been doing Watson any favors schematically.
They felt Dorsey would help them modernize their offensive philosophy at a time when they badly needed to do so. According to Graziano, the Browns believed they put Watson in too many challenging third-down situations last season and that they could avoid that by working harder on first and second downs.
For example, general manager Andrew Berry told Graziano that the Browns threw the ball on 41 percent of their first downs in games started by Watson last season, but in games started by Joe Flacco, that number was 60 percent. The Browns were 29th in the league last season in third-down conversion rate at just 31.6 percent. Only three teams -- the Giants, Cardinals, and Jets -- faced a longer average of yards to go on third down than Cleveland's 7.5.
Meanwhile, the Bills, who had Dorsey as their offensive coordinator for the first 10 games last season, led the league with a third-down conversion rate of 49.8 percent.
So, the Browns have a plan.
And, as noted in our Browns Preseason Update, Watson is embracing his leadership role, even coaching the offense on days when he is not throwing. In addition, Jerry Jeudy, who has had a few starting QBs in his career, is impressed with Watson's accuracy.
It hasn't been all smooth in those training camp sessions, and Watson, coming off last year's shoulder surgery, is still limited on downfield throws. But Stefanski is not concerned about Watson's progress, saying, "You see him making all the throws necessary that we need to make within the system. The more he practices and the more he sees those live reps in practice, the more comfortable he's going to get."
I get it. Watson is a polarizing figure. I don't blame anybody looking to avoid him based on the off-field issues. Or for his on-field shortcomings the last two seasons.
But I love my discounts. And, as Footballguy Gary Davenport noted in our staff Quarterback Sleeper collaboration, the pieces are in place: "Skill-position weapons. An excellent coach. One of the best lines in the league. It's all there -- all Watson has to do is play better.
"Oh, and he's all but free in most leagues."
In fact, he's QB21, going in Round 13 . . .
A Subtle Change In Miami's Messaging
Just over one month ago, I suggested we might not have been drafting De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert correctly based on their respective Average Draft Positions (ADPs) and anticipated roles.
Achane is being drafted in the second round as RB8. Mostert is going in Round 8 as RB25.
That's almost a complete reversal of their finishes last year.
While I totally understand the current pricing -- and I don't think they're unreasonable in best ball, head coach Mike McDaniel said last month that Mostert remained the lead back in this committee.
As such, Mostert was being overlooked as a high-end fantasy RB3.
But this past week brought a shift in messaging.
First, the Dolphins listed two starters on their initial depth chart. While these pre-season releases are unofficial, it's safe to say Mostert and Achane both show up as starters for a reason.
McDaniel then took it to the next level.
"I mean, who says we have to stop at two?" the coach asked reporters on Monday. "Maybe we can just have four."
While that statement seemed intentionally hyperbolic, the explanation was not.
McDaniel intends to let the players determine who gets the ball and how frequently they get it during a given game based on their performance.
Seasoned fantasy players know this as the "hot hand approach."
Check that . . . The "dreaded hot-hand approach."
It's something we've come to realize is a distinct possibility in today's NFL. It seems even more likely in the offense of an innovative thinker like McDaniel, who discussed how players -- when given a chance to develop, often do just that.
"You don't put a ceiling on that because guys will continue to surprise you in a positive manner if you let them," McDaniel said.
In addition to Achane and Mostert, the Dolphins have Jeff Wilson Jr., Salvon Ahmed, Chris Brooks, and rookie Jaylen Wright, a fourth-round pick in the 2024 draft.
In the preseason opener, Wright had 10 carries for 55 yards. Brooks had 12 for 40. Mostert, Achane, and Ahmed did not play.
In case you missed it, our own Cecil Lammey and Sigmund Bloom, during a recent episode of The Audible, identified Wright as their top deep sleeper.
I'm not digging any deeper than Wright -- who I view as the third option here. He's available as RB49 in Round 13.
Investing late-round draft capital on ambiguous backfields is often a path to fantasy success . . .
Likely To Succeed?
In Baltimore, Ravens All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews did not "sustain any apparent injuries" after an early morning car accident on his way to the team's training facility on Wednesday.
In a statement, the Ravens said Andrews was evaluated by their medical staff and "later joined the team for morning meetings."
So all is well, and Andrews, a three-time Pro Bowl selection for the Ravens with 40 touchdowns in 87 career games (42 starts), is set to fulfill his TE4 ADP.
I fully expect him to do that.
Last season, he had six touchdown catches in the first 11 weeks before suffering an ankle injury.
But what if he goes down again this season?
Last year, with Andrews sidelined, Isaiah Likely totaled five touchdown catches in the final five games of the regular season. Looking past the touchdowns, Likely caught 30 of his 40 targets for 411 yards.
This year, the talk is Baltimore will make an effort to get Andrews and Likely on the field at the same time.
Likely said, during OTAs, he was focused on learning all the receiving positions in coordinator Todd Monken's offense, and recent reports, including one from NFL Insider Albert Breer, indicate that Likely has shown considerable progress in that regard.
Whatever the case, Fantasy Nation seems to have a good understanding of the player values in Baltimore.
Derrick Henry is the first Raven off the board, currently with the 20th pick overall as RB8 -- a spot that continues to rise. I have him one spot ahead of ADP, but Jackson is QB4 going early in Round 4.
Andrews is going five picks later than Jackson, still in the fourth round, as TE4. Zay Flowers is coming off the board in Round 5 as WR26.
All is well within reason.
The next Raven in the eyes of fantasy investors?
Likely. He's TE20 going with the 167th pick overall.
I'm not advocating adding Likely as a locked-in TE2 on your team, but I do advocate watching him closely.
Baltimore only used two tight-end sets on 11 percent of their plays last season.
Expect that number to increase because, as the Footballguys Ravens Preseason Update put it, "Likely is too talented to keep off the field."
Given all that, Bloom wrote this week that Likely is "an exciting player to have in tight-end premium dynasty leagues right now and could have standalone value in redraft leagues."
Bloom added: "If Andrews goes down again, Likely could be one of the most valuable tight ends in fantasy football . . ."
The Ultimate Upside Gamble
If you're wondering why I'm sitting here talking about off-the-radar fantasy tight ends, it's like this: The Saints Taysom Hill has been the very definition of off the radar, yet he finished 2023 as fantasy's No. 12-scoring tight end.
Sometimes, it's more about usage and opportunity for these players.
In terms of volume, Hill is coming off a career season. He received 114 touches -- the most of his seven seasons -- that led to 692 yards (also a career best). Most of Hill's snaps came as a quarterback but barely ahead of lining up in the slot. He had 33 receptions for 291 yards and two touchdowns.
However, New Orleans Times-Picayune staffer Matthew Parras believes Hill's versatility will lead to even more varied usage under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. After asking around, Graziano reports the expectation is Hill could play up to five positions -- fullback, running back, quarterback, tight end, and wide receiver -- this year.
And if all that leads to even more volume?
Good things are likely to ensue.
ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft pointed out that over the past two seasons, neither of which featured Hill making a start at quarterback, he had a combined 20 rushing attempts plus targets, resulting in eight touchdowns, in goal-to-go situations.
Travis Kelce (26 and 11) was the only tight end with more of either.
I know.
Hill seems dicey. Cockroft characterized him as "the ultimate weekly dice roll."
But if you invest in the position early in Best Ball drafts, you're almost certainly waiting on your second and third tight ends.
If that's the case, and you expect Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Andrews or one of the other top prospects to carry you most weeks, I think there's an argument to made for adding Hill's upside over players like Noah Fant, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Jonnu Smith, Mike Gesicki, Greg Dulcich, and others, all of whom have failed to deliver at hoped-for levels in recent season.
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. As the regular season draws nearer, staying on top of all the latest developments becomes more critical.
The Footballguys team-by-team Preseason Updates offer a great starting point in your 2024 journey. Then be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, listen to the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, released every weekday morning. I give you a 10-minute rundown of news that matters most and put it all in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
Check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show, Sirius Channel 87.
