Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
The Horror!
As NFL.com's Grant Gordon framed it, "Refusing to rest on the laurels of their surprising 2023 season, the Houston Texans have been busy concocting an enhanced offensive beast for 2024."
Quarterback C.J. Stroud thinks the new-and-improved version could be a frightening opponent for defenses to stop.
"It's a five-headed monster," Stroud recently said. "It's definitely super dope to have just a bunch of options."
The impressive group includes returning wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, returning tight end Dalton Schultz, and trade acquisitions Stefon Diggs at receiver and Joe Mixon at running back.
Stroud, the reigning AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdown passes, and just five interceptions while leading the Texans to an unexpected playoff berth.
Expectations are high here.
Two weeks ago, I explored Mixon's potential in Houston in this spot. But we haven't explored the fantasy outcomes for the receiving corps -- or Stroud, for that matter -- in this space.
Let's rectify that.
If you missed it, the Texans signed Collins to a three-year, $72 million extension in May, including $52 million guaranteed.
Collins would have become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Instead, he became one of the ten highest-paid receivers in the NFL.
The 25-year-old is coming off a career-best 2023 season in which he had 80 receptions (ranked 23rd in the NFL) for 1,297 yards (ranked 8th) and eight touchdowns (tied for 8th) in 15 games.
He joined Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins as the only receivers in franchise history to have at least 1,200 yards.
In the last two games, when the Texans were desperate to win, Stroud and Collins combined for 16 receptions and 275 yards, and the Texans won both games.
In the season's most crucial game, Collins was at his best.
In the final game at Indianapolis, the Texans needed to win to earn the AFC South title. Collins caught nine passes for 195 yards and a touchdown in the 23-19 victory that secured a worst-to-first season. With the Texans trailing 3-0 in the first quarter, Stroud and Collins collaborated on a 75-yard touchdown that gave the Texans a lead they never relinquished.
It was Collins' second 190-yard game last season, tying Andre Johnson's team record.
At this time last year, no one had any idea what kind of season Collins might have playing with a rookie quarterback. The Texans knew what Collins was capable of because he flashed his talent in his first two seasons when he played with quarterbacks Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor.
A further indication of the team's confidence in Collins is the extension came after Houston bolstered its receiving room by trading for Buffalo's Stefon Diggs in March.
Diggs will be a free agent in 2025 after the Texans voided the final three years on his contract, increasing his 2024 base salary to $22.5 million. So extending Collins gives the Texans two receivers they view as dynamic playmakers under contract beyond this year: Tank Dell and Collins.
Even before the Texans validated it with this investment, Collins was our top fantasy wideout in Houston.
That hasn't changed.
Collins is WR18 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. Diggs is WR26, and Dell is our WR32.
In the real world, Collins investors are even more confident. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is WR13.
To be fair, Diggs, with a WR19 ADP, and Dell, at WR28, also remain popular.
Beyond that, Houston Chronicle beat writer Jon Alexander recently told me he envisions the same pecking order outlined here for this receiving corps in 2024.
That being the case, I'm more likely to buy the cheaper piece.
2023 third-rounder Dell finished his rookie season with just over 700 yards but was on pace for 1,200 yards before suffering a broken leg in early December.
The second-year man is healthy, and it's worth noting that last year, he was WR19 on a points-per-game basis with 15 PPR points a week.
For perspective, DeVonta Smith (14.4), Chris Olave (14.3), Jaylen Waddle (14.2), and DK Metcalf (14.1) were the four receivers immediately behind Dell in that category.
As for Collins, our own Sam Wagman digs into the question about the budding star's ability to pay off his ADP in this Player Spotlight.
The more significant issue is that we're all betting on Stroud to build on his remarkable rookie campaign.
We think Stroud will continue to be fabulous -- our QB6 Ranking reflects that -- but mitigating any concerns about a possible step back by investing in players the second-year man has already established chemistry with and demonstrated an affinity for working with -- whether it's Collins or Dell -- makes sense to me . . .
Wilson Primed To Shine
Aaron Rodgers is returning from his Achilles injury, and ESPN.com's Rich Cimini reports that after full participation in OTAs, the 40-year-old quarterback has the "all clear" for training camp.
After posting back-to-back MVP seasons in 2020 and 2021, Rodgers was mediocre in 2022. So when I spoke with Cimini this past week, the question was, how confident are the Jets that Rodgers can be elite again?
Cimini told me team officials are confident, but he acknowledged it's a valid question, and how the offensive line plays will be part of the equation. He also told me that Rodgers is about 95 percent as camp opens, but the QB hopes to be 100 percent before the summer ends.
Cimini doesn't think we'll know the answer until the regular season when the game speed increases and Rodgers' reflexes and instincts -- the hallmarks of his game -- are put to the test. Cimini believes it may take a few games for Rodgers to acclimate to all that.
Once he does, Rodgers will have enough weapons around him -- notably receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall -- to lift the offense out of its annual doldrums.
But make no mistake: Everything in the Jets' universe hinges on Rodgers, putting immense pressure on him to revive the franchise.
That won't be the case for fantasy managers, however. Rodgers is being drafted as QB20, which is interesting, considering Hall and Wilson, who Rodgers believes has the ability and drive to be the best receiver in the NFL, are both going in the first round of fantasy drafts.
I took a closer look at Hall and his chances of pushing Christian McCaffrey for the overall RB1 position a few weeks back, but Wilson also merits a closer look.
After all, as Rivka Boord of JetsXFactor.com suggested, "If one Jets player was robbed in 2023, it was Wilson."
The 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Wilson posted 83 catches, 1,103 receiving yards, and four touchdowns while playing with four different quarterbacks that year.
Expectations rose accordingly with a Hall of Fame passer coming on board last year.
But once Rodgers was hurt in the opener, the situation devolved, and Wilson finished with lower numbers across the board -- yardage, touchdowns, yards per reception, and yards per route run.
A lack of viable complementary receivers compounded the shortcomings at quarterback. Boord notes that Wilson faced double coverage at the highest rate of any receiver in the NFL.
With Rodgers back in the mix, expectations are high again.
Wilson is WR8 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, which aligns directly with his ADP. He's being drafted with the 12th pick overall and Footballguy Jason Wood makes an even more compelling first-round case for Wilson in this Player Spotlight.
Who will be Rodgers' No. 2 option in the passing game?
Cimini and I agree: The best bet is tight end Tyler Conklin, who can fill the No. 2 role until wide receiver Mike Williams gets comfortable.
Although Cimini said Allen Lazard has been impressive early in camp, Conklin is a reliable intermediate receiver who built a nice rapport with Rodgers in OTAs. Hall, with 76, finished second in catches last season, behind Wilson (95), but his total figures to drop because Rodgers will do a better job of getting the ball to the wideouts and tight ends than the backups who replaced him last season.
Returning from ACL surgery, Williams is on the Active/PUP list. The former Charger is targeting a Week 1 return but will need an acclimation period.
One last note on Conklin . . . He turned the third-most targets on the team (83) into the third-most catches (61) and second-most yards (621) in 2023 -- even with the QB woes. If he maintains a similar role with Rodgers as his quarterback all season, fantasy managers could wind up with a reasonably priced TE2, delivering low-end TE1 totals . . .
Harrison Ahead Of The Curve
Darren Urban of the Cardinals official website reminded readers, "Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn't played a snap in the NFL. He hasn't even put on pads yet."
That hasn't kept fantasy investors from paying a second-round price to land him.
But we're not alone in having high expectations.
The No. 4 overall pick has drawn plenty of praise two months into his pro career, about as much as a player could earn without appearing in a game. For example, teammate Michael Wilson expects Harrison to carry his impressive production at Ohio State into the pros.
"He is very perspicacious and always seeking information," Wilson said.
I'm not a Stanford graduate like Wilson, so I had to look that up. Let me save you the trouble: "Perspicacious" means to have a ready insight into and understanding of things.
Wilson isn't alone in seeing that.
"My expectation for him, he meets and exceeds it thus far," head coach Jonathan Gannon said.
Quarterback Kyler Murray has also praised Harrison, who said he has worked to not "come in here with a big head" this offseason. The rest of the Cardinals might be making that a little more difficult as they look forward to big things from Harrison on the field this fall.
The expectations are understandable.
The 6-3, 209-pound Harrison came into the league with ideal size, speed, and collegiate production. He uses that big frame like a power forward to wall off and shield defenders.
In other words, he's a prototypical No. 1 receiver and should enjoy immediate NFL success.
Yet, I have concerns.
As noted above, fantasy managers have been willing to pay up for Harrison, who is currently WR9 going with the 15th pick overall.
Plenty of rookies have delivered big fantasy seasons.
Rams wideout Puka Nacua had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history for a wide receiver in 2023, setting the rookie receiving record with 105 catches for 1,486 yards and six touchdowns, resulting in a WR4 finish.
There have been others. Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase delivered a WR5 finish in 2021. Justin Jefferson was WR7 in 2020. New Orleans' Michael Thomas was WR7 in 2016, while Odell Beckham Jr was WR7 as a rookie in 2014 despite missing a quarter of the year. That same year, Mike Evans was WR13 as a rookie.
In 2003, an unheralded youngster named Anquan Boldin finished with 101 catches for 1,377 yards, and eight scores to finish as WR3 during his rookie season in Arizona.
Then there's the absolute rookie ceiling established by Randy Moss in 1998.
The Hall of Famer finished his first season with 1,313 receiving yards and a league-high 17 touchdown receptions. Moss was fantasy's WR1 that year.
So there's ample precedent for Harrison to make good on the draft capital expended. Just know you're paying a premium for him to deliver at a ceiling he's yet to reach . . .
Williams Unstoppable?
Among all Lions pass catchers, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, with 164, and tight end Sam LaPorta, with 120, received most of the targets last season. Jahmyr Gibbs received the third most targets, with 71, an average of 4.7 per game.
The next man up after that, Josh Reynolds, is gone. His departure in free agency opens up a starting role and more targets.
Jameson William appears to be ready to fill the void.
And maybe more.
The former first-round pick came on strong at the end of last year, and now, as the No. 2 receiver alongside St. Brown, he'll see his snaps double this year.
Williams wasn't at practice Friday for personal reasons, but over the first couple of days, his potential impact on the offense with increased reps has been felt. So much so that the Detroit Free Press reports he was among the most impressive players as the Lions opened training camp.
Williams didn't have any drops, looked smooth, strong, and confident, and, per the Free Press, "at times, he was simply unstoppable."
According to ESPN.com's Eric Woodyard, Williams has been working to connect with quarterback Jared Goff on the deep ball. This was evident on Day 1 of training camp when they connected on a long touchdown after Williams beat two defensive backs for one of the biggest plays of the day.
"He's a guy who can score on one play, and you've seen it quite a bit in his career," Goff said of Williams. "He gets the ball, and he scores quite a bit. He just continues to get better, and it's exciting. His consistency has raised a ton, and he knows what time it is for himself and our team and has come to work really well."
Goff believes he and Williams can reach a point where their comfort level on down-field throws can rival his comfort level with St. Brown on the short and intermediate routes.
"Of course, oh yeah. It's just reps. I've been saying that since he got here," Goff said. It's just reps, just an amount of time, and a matter of time. He and I continue to get on the same page and continue to work towards that, and like I said early on in camp, he's done a great job, and we just keep on growing and improving."
As Footballguy Jeff Haseley noted in our Lions Team Vibe series, Williams has faced several challenges, namely injuries and suspensions, but this could be the year he turns things around.
The best part is there's no real risk associated with finding out.
Williams' WR49 ADP and 9th-round price tag make him a reasonable WR4 target with upside . . .
Money Matters
Receiver CeeDee Lamb was a no-show at Cowboys training camp, holding out until he gets a new contract from Dallas. Cincinnati's Ja'Marr Chase and San Francisco's Brandon Aiyuk are holding in -- they've reported, but aren't practicing with teammates as they await new deals.
But a couple of quarterbacks did get paid heading into the weekend.
In Green Bay, the Packers and Jordan Love agreed to a four-year, $220 million contract extension that puts him in a tie for the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Love's deal averages $55 million annually, tying him with Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow at the top of the QB market.
By coming to an agreement, Love, who had elected to sit out training camp practices until a deal was done, resumed working with his teammates on the field.
The Packers -- and Fantasy managers might both end up getting great value here.
In his first year as a starter, Love completed 64.2 percent of his throws for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He also rushed for 247 yards and four touchdowns.
But most impressive, over the final eight weeks of 2023, Love scored a quarterback-leading 153 fantasy points. That was good for a 21.9 point per game average, third best behind only Josh Allen's 24.6 and Lamar Jackson's 24.4.
I'll remain mindful of that as I sit in draft rooms, looking at Love at his current ADP, which is QB10 . . .
In Miami, the Dolphins are in the Tua business long-term.
NFL Network reported on Friday that the team and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa agreed to a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension with $167.1 million guaranteed. The $53.1 million-per-year new-money extension is a shade over Goff's recent $53 million pact and just behind Love, Lawrence, and Burrow.
Despite outside questions about Tua's future in Miami, general manager Chris Grier and the coaching staff never wavered in their hopes of locking down the former Alabama lefty to a long-term, big-money deal.
Since Mike McDaniel took over in Miami, Tagovailoa has taken off. In the past two years, the 26-year-old has ranked second in the NFL in pass yards per attempt (8.5) and passer rating (102.9), fourth in total passing yards (8,172) and fifth in passing TDs (54).
The team has also taken off.
Overall, the Dolphins have scored 27.6 points per game with the southpaw as the starter and 16.3 PPG in four games that Tagovailoa missed with injury in the last two seasons (two starts each from Skylar Thompson and Teddy Bridgewater).
Injuries, including multiple concussions, were an issue in his first three seasons. Not last year, however.
In 2023, he showcased his promise and ability to stay healthy, leading the NFL with 4,624 passing yards while playing all 17 games.
Tua, who was QB10 last year, is being drafted as QB15 so far this year . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. With training camps rolling at full speed, there's no shortage of news and developments of interest to us.
So be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, listen to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. I give you a 10-minute rundown of the news that matters most and put it all in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
Also, check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
