Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
New Staff Ready To Unleash Pitts
According to Atlanta Journal-Constitution beat writer D. Orlando Ledbetter, the Falcons plan to play Kyle Pitts at tight end and wide receiver.
"He's learning basically two different positions," offensive coordinator Zac Robinson said. "There's some tight end, and there's some receiver. So, he's got a lot on his plate. He's handled it really well. I'm just excited to see him continue to get more comfortable in the system."
The Falcons will look for the 6-foot-6, 247-pound Pitts, who ran the 40 in 4.44 seconds at his University of Florida Pro Day in 2021, to create mismatches.
"We'll move him around the formation," Robinson said. "We'll use him as a blocker. We'll use him as a receiver. We'll use him all across the board."
Expectations are high.
"The sky is the limit for what kind of season that he can have," Robinson said.
Pitts had a strong rookie season in 2021 and nearly broke Mike Ditka's recording for receiving yards by a rookie. Ditka had 1,076 yards in 14 games in 1961. Pitts had 1,026 in 17 games.
However, his production tailed off after Matt Ryan was traded to the Colts, and Pitts dealt with a series of injuries, including a season-ending knee injury in 2022.
Pitts said his surgically-repaired knee was an issue last season.
"Everybody likes to feel 1,000 percent and at your normal self," he told Ledbetter. "I would say that it wasn't so much bad during the games, it was more (preparing) during the week. Dealing with that soreness and tightness just all through the week. Then Sunday was just show day. So, you can figure it out on Sunday. But all through the week, it was a grind."
So far this year, the Falcons like how Pitts has approached his new role, and Robinson is eager to unlock the former first-round pick's potential.
"There is so much in there," Robinson said. "Obviously, (everyone) sees the athletic traits."
Still, the Falcons will try to get some questions answered in the exhibition season.
"What can he do when the ball is in the air?" Robinson said. "What can he do with the ball in his hands? I'm excited about him as a blocker. I think that's untapped. I think he's willing and he's wants to do it. He wants to be a complete tight end."
We'd all love to see Robinson get the most out of Pitts, and Kirk Cousins should help in that endeavor.
Cousins has a long history of maximizing the talents of his tight ends.
Last year, T.J. Hockenson was TE2 when Cousins was injured in Week 8. Kyle Rudolph was TE10 in 2018, Cousins' first season as a Viking. Washington's Jordan Reed was TE3 in 2015, Cousins' first season as an NFL starter, and TE9 in 2016.
Meanwhile, Pitts' TE10 finish as a rookie marked his best fantasy output. He fell off to TE33 in 2022 due to the knee injury that cost him seven games. He was TE13 last season, and it's reasonable to believe improved quarterback play will help.
After all, the group Pitts worked with after Ryan's departure -- Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke -- weren't exactly high-end. To that point, Yahoo's Kate Magdziuk reminded us that over the past three seasons, Pitts ranked last among 40 qualifying tight ends with a 67.5 percent catchable target rate.
Cousins had the third-lowest inaccurate/uncatchable pass rate among 44 qualifying QBs over that span.
So, as Footballguy Cecil Lammey suggested this week, Pitts could move near the top 5 if he plays up to his potential.
And that's the lone drawback here. Expectations among fantasy managers are as high as they are at Falcons headquarters.
His TE6 Average Draft Position (ADP) and fifth-round price tag align with his TE7 spot on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings.
So while we're drafting Pitts above his proven ceiling, we at least have more reason to be optimistic than we have in recent seasons . . .
Buffalo Ready To Cook
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra reminded readers this past week, when offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over as Buffalo's play-caller midway through the 2023 season, he relied on a more balanced approach, which helped unleash Josh Allen.
Now, as training camp opens, Brady's had an entire offseason to fully implement his plan for 2024 as the club rebuilt their wide receiver room. Heading toward training camp, the coach said on the "Centered on Buffalo" podcast with former Bills offensive lineman Eric Wood that the plan is always fluid and will likely depend on how things shake out during training camp.
That said, one noticeable change when the Bills fired Ken Dorsey and promoted Brady to play-calling duties was the team's commitment to the run. After Brady took over in Week 11, the Bills rushed for more than 100 yards in each contest, including a 266-yard Week 15 against Buffalo.
Will that persist this season?
Brady told Wood that leaning on the run game was more a product of how defenses played against Allen and the Bills than a holistic philosophy. Still, the run game, with James Cook and Allen leading the way, helped open the entire offense. Given the revamped receiving corps, the expectation is Brady will lean on the ground game again, especially early in the season.
If that's the case, we should pay more attention to Cook, who finished 2023 as the league's fourth-leading rusher (1,122 yards) and sixth in the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,567).
But it wasn't until Brady took over the offense that Cook kicked it up a notch.
From Weeks 11-18, he was the RB10, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game. Cook averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game, almost three points over his full-season average (13.9).
The dual-threat back also showed improved vision and decision-making.
SI.com's Kyle Silagyi believes that improvement, coupled with the expectation of a more ground-oriented attack than in previous seasons, should have the attention of fantasy managers.
Silagyi isn't alone in that belief. ESPN.com's Matt Bowen included Cook on his "All-Upside" fantasy team.
"Under Brady, Cook averaged 16.7 carries from Weeks 11 to 18," Bowen wrote. "Simply put, the run game was a foundational piece of the Bills' offense during that stretch, and I expect that to continue this season with Brady returning in a permanent role."
Bowen especially likes Cook's pass-catching ability (he's caught 65 passes throughout his professional career). And his passing-game usage skyrocketed under Brady. Per FantasyPros, after Week 10, Cooks was 16th in target share (11.4 percent) among 34 qualifying backs.
Add in his explosive traits -- he had 33 rushes of 10 or more yards last season, and it's easy to argue Cook is a solid value at his current RB14 ADP, which has him being selected in the fourth round.
There are concerns.
Allen, who scored 15 rushing touchdowns last season, and the addition of rookie running back Ray Davis could continue to limit Cook's scoring opportunities in the red zone after he finished with just six touchdowns last year (two rushing and four receiving).
But that doesn't keep Cook from having RB1 upside at RB2 prices . . .
White Sees A Path To Duplicating Last Season
Buccaneers running back Rachaad White came within 10 yards of breaking the 1,000-yard rushing barrier last season, something no Bucs player has done since Doug Martin in 2015.
Heading into his third year in the league, White said during a recent appearance on The Rich Eisen Show that he's ready to smash past that plateau.
Can he get there?
Earlier this month, USA Today's Jason Kanno joined those reporting that White will have "no real competition" for a featured role in training camp.
The Buccaneers selected Oregon's Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft, but all signs still point to White being primed for another heavy workload this season.
How heavy can it be?
Last year, it was a massive workload. White took 272 carries, tied for second-most in the NFL. No other Tampa ball carrier broke the 50-carry mark.
By adding 64 catches, White came up with 336 total touches, also the second-most in the NFL behind only Christian McCaffrey's 339.
White also finished with the fourth-most yards from scrimmage -- 1,539 -- even though he wasn't an efficient runner. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry, 30th among RBs with at least 150 carries.
That said, White's production ramped up down the stretch and included his only two 100-yard-plus games of the season.
Durability was a plus.
White played in every game of the 2023 season, which allowed him to lead all running backs with 861 offensive snaps.
White believes he can be used more in the passing game this year than last.
"The scrimmage yards are just gonna speak for themselves just 'cause I've always been good catching the ball and running routes out of the backfield," he said.
The Arizona State product displayed his pass-catching prowess by averaging 8.6 yards per catch -- second-best in the NFL for running backs with at least 50 catches.
The run game will evolve as a new system is installed. New coordinator Liam Coen will build protections and rushes that maximize White's skillset and the offensive line's athleticism.
From a fantasy perspective, White's current fourth-round price tag is appealing.
He currently sits at RB10 on the Footballguys consensus rankings.
If he can duplicate his performance last season when he finished as RB4 in PPR leagues, an RB14 ADP and fourth-round price will have made him quite the value . . .
Conner Still Searching For His Ceiling
As Arizona Republic staffer Evan Desai points out, James Conner may not currently be a top-10 back in the NFL, but after a strong 2021-23 season, fantasy managers might disagree.
According to ESPN's recent list of top 10 running backs, which was put together by surveying coaches, league executives, and scouts, Conner is not even among the league's best 17 ball carriers.
That is because the list does not include him in the top 10 or among the seven "Honorable mentions."
Fantasy investors, however, have enjoyed three years starting in 2021, where Conner has posted 1,082 scrimmage yards or more.
In addition, Conner, who made the Pro Bowl in 2021 when he ran for 15 touchdowns (with 18 total scores that season), is coming off a career year.
Despite missing four games on injured reserve with a knee injury, he rushed for 1,040 yards and seven touchdowns on 5.0 yards per attempt. His rushing total and yards per carry were career highs. He also caught 27 passes for 165 yards and two scores.
Conner claims he's only getting started.
"Definitely got a lot of work to put in, but that's the floor, not the ceiling," Conner told ESPN's Josh Weinfuss.
Conner and the Cardinals are in their second year with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, which helps his chances of repeating last year's success.
But that'll be no mean feat.
Only five players had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in the last two years, according to ESPN Stats and Information: McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, and Travis Etienne Jr. Only 82 players have rushed for at least 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons since 2000.
But that's the goal, and despite the addition of Trey Benson in the third round of April's NFL Draft, USA Today's Jess Root believes Conner is "locked into a starter role."
As Footballguy Jason Woods suggested in our article on potential busts for the Cardinals, Benson could be a league-winning lottery ticket. Wood and I like everything about Benson, except the rookie's RB30 ADP on Underdog.
That seems high for a player likely relegated to third-down work as long as Conner is healthy.
Are there concerns for Conner?
Sure. Our own Julia Papworth points out that Conner has never played an entire season of football in his career, and Benson is coming off a 14-TD season during his final season at Florida State.
Beyond that, Papworth notes Conner will be fighting for targets with rookie phenom Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, and more while trying to stay healthy.
Those are fair points, all.
However, Conner's RB22 ADP means he's going in the seventh round of ongoing drafts, which makes him an ideal RB2 candidate . . .
Brooks Further Under The Radar Than He Should Be?
The Panthers' offseason focus centered on buffering the situation surrounding quarterback Bryce Young, improving the receiver corps and offensive line, and drafting Jonathon Brooks in the second round.
Brooks was the first running back taken despite still not being fully recovered from a torn ACL. To that point, the Panthers placed Brooks on the non-football injury list on Friday.
Brooks obviously suffered a football injury, but landed on that list because it happened before he was in the NFL.
The second-round pick can be activated at any point.
Joining The Season podcast with Peter Schrager late last month, head coach Dave Canales pointed to the importance of the running game to improve the overall dynamic of the offense in 2024.
"It all starts with the run game," Canales said, pointing to the additions of guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis and his love for his running back room.
When it comes to Canales' use of running backs, fantasy managers have something to love, too.
Last season in Tampa Bay, Canales tended to stick with the run even when it wasn't all that effective. The Buccaneers rushed 439 times in the regular season, averaging a league-low 3.4 yards per carry.
More importantly, as noted above, Tampa leaned heavily on one back.
Drafting Brooks in the second round gives Canales an interesting mix out of the backfield.
The rookie Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders, Raheem Blackshear, Rashaad Penny, Mike Boone, and others are expected to battle for snaps during training camp.
But Brooks is the most intriguing of the group.
He played sparingly in his first two years at Texas, but in his third season, he started ten games, rushing for over 1,000 yards and 11 total touchdowns before tearing his ACL in November.
While it may take him some time to recover fully, he is expected to become the Panthers' primary running back once he does.
Our Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide describes Brooks as "a patient and instinctive runner who allows holes to open, has excellent lower body strength and contact balance, and has a pass-catching ability that will lead to 3rd down opportunities."
Brooks, currently RB32 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, is being drafted as RB23 on Underdog.
And our own Dave Kluge has been all about that in his best-ball drafts. Through a little over 200 drafts, Brooks was his most rostered player.
"Drafting a rookie coming off an ACL tear who landed on the worst team in the league probably sounds dumb," Kluge wrote. "But his talent, investments in the OL, and the hiring of Dave Canales are all so alluring."
Papworth is also on board.
"Brooks would have gone much higher in the NFL draft if not for his ACL injury," Papworth wrote, identifying the rookie as a potential sleeper. "Take advantage of drafters' nerves and grab the young explosive back, who will be a true three-down bruiser once he gets on the field."
Kluge and Papworth are not wrong, even if those rostering Brooks might need some patience as the rookie gets up to speed.
Meanwhile, with Brooks opening camp on the PUP list and betting the 150th pick on Hubbard, Brooks' primary backup doesn't seem all that risky . . .
Aiyuk Officially Asks Out
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Following up on an ongoing story . . . Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has requested a trade from the 49ers.
NFL Network's Mike Garafolo first reported the news on Tuesday.
Aiyuk is entering the final year of his rookie contract and is slated to count $14.124 million against the salary cap in 2024. The wide receiver is coming off a 75-catch, 1,342-yard, 7-touchdown season.
He didn't participate in the 49ers' offseason program and skipped the team's mandatory minicamp. He is subject to fines of over $101,000 for boycotting the minicamp.
Last month, he made headlines with a post to TikTok in which he told former Arizona State teammate and current Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels that the 49ers told him, "They don't want me back."
However, later in June, he told TMZ Sports he wanted to stay with the 49ers.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson recently reset the wide receiver market with his four-year extension that averages $35 million per season, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL. The Philadelphia Eagles' A.J. Brown ($32 million per season), Detroit Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown ($30 million per season), and Miami Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle ($28.25 million per season) also have agreed to extensions this offseason.
Teammate Deebo Samuel said during the team's minicamp that he has been in regular contact with Aiyuk throughout the offseason, offering his help navigating the contract situation. Samuel agreed to a three-year extension with the 49ers in 2022, but only after he demanded a trade due to the slow pace of his contract talks.
His top piece of advice to Aiyuk has been to remain patient.
Fantasy managers should take that advice as well.
While Aiyuk's average draft position on Underdog has slipped from WR12 to WR16, we're still drafting him at or near his ceiling, even with the uncertainty.
Even if I expect him to wind up coming to terms with the Niners, things could get tense. If it drives the price down, don't let the contract issue scare you off . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. As NFL training camps roll out, the tempo at which interesting developments emerge will increase.
If you're checking in and need to catch up after an offseason spent decompressing, check out my What's New This Year: Each Team In 15 Seconds.
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I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
