Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Taylor On The Rise
Jonathan Taylor's NFL career has taken fantasy managers on a veritable roller-coaster ride.
Big picture: The Colts running back has 4,582 rushing yards, 5,537 all-purpose yards, and 44 career touchdowns (40 rushing and four receiving) in 53 games -- 48 starts.
But the highs and lows have been striking.
The former second-round pick went from an RB6 season as a rookie in 2020 to winning the rushing title and finishing as RB1 overall in 2021, only to come up short with disappointing campaigns in the last two years.
The dip was caused by various factors, including an anemic Indy offense, injuries, and a lengthy contract dispute.
But this year?
As NBC Sports' Lawrence Jackson Jr. put it, "Taylor will be out for blood in 2024," and how he closed out last season lends credence to this.
Armed with a new contract, Taylor cranked out 487 yards and six touchdowns over his final five games, scoring at least one rushing touchdown in each of those contests.
Jackson noted that Taylor was RB8 on a points-per-game basis from his Week 8 return until the end of the season. Despite sporadic availability, his 18.2 points per game from Weeks 10 through 18 were the fifth-most at his position.
In other words, we got a taste of the old Taylor.
Is that enough for us to include him on the list of running backs capable of pushing Christian McCaffrey for RB1 overall in 2024?
Yes, it is.
Remember, the Colts' offensive line played well in 2023 -- their run block win rate improved from 23rd to 14th year-over-year -- but there was room for improvement. So, the team drafted two players -- Matt Goncalves and Tanor Bortolini in Rounds 3 and 4 -- to boost competition for playing time up front. With Ryan Kelly and All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson holding down the middle, Jackson contends the unit could return to the top of the NFL again.
But more than that, Taylor should benefit greatly from the presence of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson.
SI.com's Drake Wally believes Richardson and Taylor have the potential to become one of the NFL's deadliest offensive duos. I agree.
Taylor will benefit if the sophomore signal caller can remain in the locked and upright position for most or all of the 2024 season. If nothing else, consider the difficult decisions defenders will face at the mesh point on RPOs.
Taylor is RB6 on the Footballguys consensus 2024 Draft Rankings. He holds that same spot on my own rankings. That's one off his current RB5 Average Draft Position (ADP).
Landing a high-end wideout in Round 1 and grabbing Taylor at his ADP with the 13th pick overall in Round 2?
That could easily be the start of a league-winning draft . . .
Etienne's Workload In The Spotlight
After missing his entire rookie year because of injury, Travis Etienne Jr. became a top-10 back with back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, 16 total touchdowns, and nearly 100 receptions.
Heavy usage has been a factor in that.
In 2022, Etienne accounted for 74 percent of the Jaguars running back carries after James Robinson was traded to the Jets in mid-October. He finished that season accounting for 61 percent of the running back carries and 60 percent of the running back touches.
To dial back that volume in 2023, the Jaguars signed free-agent running back D'Ernest Johnson and drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round.
Yet Etienne's workload increased.
He had 75 percent of the running back carries and 76 percent of the running back touches.
As a result, Etienne rushed 267 times last season, while no other back on the roster surpassed Bigsby's 50 carries. In three of Jacksonville's final six games, Bigsby didn't see a carry, and it took a shutout blowout of Carolina in Week 17 for him to get 20 percent of his season carries.
But the rushing game suffered in the second half of last season, primarily due to injuries on an already unstable offensive line.
Etienne went from averaging the NFL's fourth-most rushing yards per game -- 72.9 -- in Weeks 1-9 to averaging the 29th-most -- 47.2 -- in Weeks 10-18.
With an improved and healthier offensive line, the Jaguars hope the running game blossoms. They would love to see Bigsby help them achieve what ESPN's Mike DiRocco characterized as their primary goal: Easing Etienne's workload.
This sets us up for another case of believing it when we see it.
Etienne and McCaffrey are the only players to rush for more than 1,000 yards and total more than 1,400 scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons. As the most explosive backs on their respective teams, it's difficult to take them off the field without limiting the offense.
We definitely shouldn't overlook that aspect of Etienne's game.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, one stat from last season perfectly describes that explosiveness and short-area acceleration. It came when Etienne hit 19.62 miles per hour . . . When crossing the line of scrimmage.
That's just two and a half miles per hour off the fastest speed in the NFL last year -- and that came on a 73-yard touchdown catch and run by DK Metcalf.
Last year, Etienne parlayed his workload and athleticism into an RB3 overall finish for fantasy managers. This year, head coach Doug Pederson believes Etienne can be even better than he was in 2023.
If so, the fact that he's being drafted in the third round with an RB10 ADP means there will be some happy Etienne investors when all is said and done this year . . .
Are The Prices Right In Miami?
Based on best ball drafts up to this point, De'Von Achane, being drafted in the second round on Underdog as RB7, is the top fantasy asset in Miami's backfield.
Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert is going in Round 8 as RB28.
Those prices are understandable.
But are they correct?
The case for Achane is based more on potential upside than anticipated workload.
Over 11 appearances last season, the rookie finished as a top-8 PPR back five times. He tied for RB4 in fantasy points per game with 17.5.
According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, in the eight games he played at least 41 percent of the snaps, Achane averaged 14.2 touches and 113.8 total yards. Citing Fantasy Points data, Brown added that Achane ranked first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Achane led all running backs in average speed at the line of scrimmage at 12.2 mph. His 21.93 mph also led all running backs, and only McCaffrey recorded more rushing yards over expectation than Achane's 279.
So drafting Achane, fantasy's RB25 last year, as a fantasy RB1 is by no means a reach.
Just know that head coach Mike McDaniel still considers Mostert a vital piece.
"You wouldn't be doing justice to the entire group if you were trying to crown this person or that person," McDaniel said this week, "but the whole group, pretty much led by Raheem, it is of quality and depth as good as I've been around -- and I've been around a lot of good groups."
Even if we assume Mostert is first man up, the workload behind him remains fluid.
"I think that I have literally spent zero time trying to forecast that room because I recognize supreme competition when I see it," McDaniel told ESPN.com's Loius Marcel-Jacques. "And the great news is instead of saying what I believe or forecast, I get to just watch and allow the players determine all that for us."
McDaniel believes he'll have plenty of time this summer to devise ways to get all the key pieces, including speedy rookie Jaylen Wright, involved in the offense.
However, as Louis-Jacques suggests, Achane, in particular, is a player for whom the third-year coach may need to get creative to maximize his talents.
"I think it's an important offseason for him because you were just really hanging on by your coattails as a rookie in this league in general," McDaniel said. "Year 2, you kind of let everything settle, understand much more of the whys of everything that you do, and for him, the more he can understand within the offense, the more ways he can get the ball.
"He had outstanding ball production, some of which I know he feels specifically that there's more out there from the opportunities he had last year and then being able to find different ways to get people the ball, whether that's different types of pass routes, whether that's different types of run schemes that you can get comfortable with, all those things.
"More ways to be at the point of attack to play within this offense; that's what this offseason really provides for him."
Achane led all Dolphins running backs with 37 targets and 27 receptions last season, turning them into 197 yards and three touchdowns. According to Next Gen Stats, the average depth of his 163 routes last season was 2.2 yards from the line of scrimmage; Louis-Jacques notes that expanding Achane's route tree could create opportunities for him in the passing game in 2024.
Whether through the air or on the ground, getting Achane the ball in space is a priority for the Dolphins.
None of that means Mostert, who signed an extension with the club through 2025 in March, is going away.
Remember, even with Achane on board, the veteran ran for over 1,000 yards on 209 carries with a league-leading 18 rushing touchdowns. His 21 total touchdowns set a franchise record and made him a league-winning piece for many fantasy managers.
Yes, Mostert turned 32 in April. But he has only 645 career rushing attempts. For perspective, 26 running backs have at least 1,000 rushing attempts since Mostert entered the league in 2015.
Also, Mostert can still move.
He hit 21.62 miles per hour on a 43-yard touchdown run last season. That's only half a mile per hour behind Achane's top speed. Meaning there's no real difference. Nobody is catching either of these guys from behind.
So, are we drafting these two correctly?
For best ball? Absolutely.
I want exposure to Achane's explosive upside. However, due to the lower price, I have more shares of Mostert, who finished last season as RB5 overall.
The outlook changes, however, in redraft leagues.
While we should be mindful that Mostert is the lead back, a healthy Achane will surely get more work than he did last year.
Footballguy Cecil Lammey believes we can count on Mostert as a low-end RB2 with upside. Last year's production notwithstanding, Lammey contends that this season, it's best to project him for around 900 yards rushing with 8-10 touchdowns.
That matches the official Footballguys Projections, which have Achane being more productive than Mostert, with a projected average of 13.7 points per game for Achane and 12.3 points per game for Mostert.
That's fair.
But we also have to take the addition of Wright into account. The rookie believes he's "tailor-made" for McDaniel's offense.
On Thursday's "The Audible" episode, Lammey and Sigmund Bloom identified Wright as their top deep sleeper.
Whatever the case, after finishing 31st and 25th in rushing attempts and yards, respectively, in 2022, the Dolphins recommitted to the run game in 2023 and recorded the sixth-most rushing yards in the league last season. With even more talent added to their running back room in 2024, expect a similar commitment to the run game this season.
Bottom line: Best-ball exposure to all three -- Achane, Mostert, and Wright, RB49 on Underdog with a 13th-round ADP, at the current market price, makes sense.
For redraft, Achane as RB16 and Mostert as RB27 on the Footballguys consensus 2024 Draft Rankings (which are in line with their projections among all running backs) feel like good spots as well . . .
Jacobs Eager To Catch On In Green Bay
As Josh Jacobs surveyed the NFL landscape and considered his options heading into free agency, Green Bay started to look more and more like a logical destination for him.
Since signing his four-year, $48 million deal with the Packers, Jacobs' belief that he made the right decision has only strengthened.
"I honestly think the sky is the limit in this offense," Jacobs said during an appearance on NFL Network this week.
Jacobs cited emerging talent like Jordan Love, the team's young receiving corps, and a solid offensive line for his optimism.
Head coach Matt LaFleur has traditionally favored a multi-back approach in Green Bay. The team drafted UCS's MarShawn Lloyd in April and retained A.J. Dillon.
But LaFleur has said that he views Jacobs as more of a high-volume back.
So even though you have to go back to the 2017 season when LaFleur was the Rams' offensive coordinator to find a back he coached that topped the 300-touch mark, NFL.com's Eric Edholm believes that might be what's in store for Jacobs this coming season.
LaFleur also likes calling pass plays for his backs, and Jacobs said that the Packers "have me running real routes." -- perhaps a veiled shot at his usage with the Las Vegas Raiders.
"Just to be able to come out and actually show that I can catch the ball more," Jacobs said. "Not just that, but trusting me enough to be able to pick up protections. It's just so special when you got a guy like Jordan Love back there, and you can't really just load the box every play, and you make defenses decide what they want to stop. I think that's going to be the biggest help for me this year."
It sounds like Jacobs is planning on a lot of third-down duty in Green Bay.
While he's best known for his work between the tackles (since he entered the NFL in 2019, Jacobs has led the NFL with 2,791 rush yards between the tackles), the former Alabama star is an underrated pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Jacobs is one of four players with 50-plus rushing yards per game and 20-plus receiving yards per game each of the last three seasons. The others are McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and the man he's replacing, Aaron Jones.
With a clear path to a featured role and the likelihood of being a legitimate contributor in the passing game, Jacobs' current RB13 spot on the 2024 Footballguys Draft Rankings has climbed since he opened at RB22. He's also going as RB12 on Underdog.
If it feels like we might be drafting him at his perceived ceiling, I'll remind you Jacobs is just two years removed from an RB3 finish . . .
Late-Season Love Was The Best Love
On a related note, although Love started last season slowly, he finished on a tear, leading the Packers to an unexpected playoff victory.
Based on Jacobs' limited first-hand exposure to him, Love appears to possess everything it takes to thrive consistently.
"To me, just from what I've seen, he has all the traits and all the tools to be a superstar in this league," Jacobs said. "I think that as he keeps continuing to play and gets experience and becomes more confident in his abilities and what he can do, he's going to be the next superstar in this league, for sure."
While he's not a running quarterback, Love's late-season rise was impressive by NFL and fantasy standards.
ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes that over the final eight weeks of 2023, Love scored a quarterback-leading 168.50 fantasy points. That was good for a 21.1 per-game average, third best behind only Lamar Jackson's 24.7 and Josh Allen's 24.0.
Love's current ADP is QB10 . . .
Mixon Lands In A Great Spot
As ESPN.com's DJ Bien-Aime noted, wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell have all made headlines this offseason.
The meteoric rise of quarterback C.J. Stroud has much to do with it.
However, the Texans' coaching staff is equally invested in its running game to balance the offense.
The team wasn't satisfied with its running attack after averaging 92.7 yards per game -- 28th in the league -- and it's betting on Joe Mixon, acquired from the Bengals this offseason, to help solve that problem.
And it's a significant bet. After the trade for Mixon, the Texans gave the 27-year-old a three-year, $27 million contract extension.
"Not to sound like I am joking when I say this, but he is just a really good running back, in all regards," offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said.
It's true. Since 2017, Mixon has the seventh-most receptions and seventh-most receiving yards at his position. He has the fourth-most rushing yards and seventh-most touchdowns -- 49 to be exact, and the 2017 second-round pick is coming off his fourth 1,000-yard rushing effort in seven seasons.
While Footballguy Zareh Kantzabedian has noted Mixon has the worst breakaway run percentage among top-12 fantasy backs since 2020, the volume in Houston could be even greater than what he enjoyed in Cincinnati.
And the Texans' zone run scheme should be a positive.
During a recent appearance on the Fantasy Points Podcast, Hall of Fame running back LaDainian Tomlinson said he thinks Mixon is in an ideal spot.
How well does Joe Mixon actually fit the #Texans offensive scheme? ?
— Fantasy Points (@FantasyPts) July 1, 2024
LaDainian Tomlinson (@LT_21) stopped by to talk shop with @Fantasy_Guru and @DrakeFantasy on the latest episode of the Fantasy Points Podcast! ?? pic.twitter.com/F88lfHgEC7
"I think Mixon will excel in that offense, especially when he's going to be playing against six-man box," Tomlinson said. "They're not gonna pack the box. They're gonna be trying to stuff the pass game with Stroud. Mixon will have light boxes.
"They will kill people on the perimeter with him."
Meanwhile, Cockroft pointed out that Mixon has scored at least 75 of his PPR fantasy points inside the red zone in each of the past three seasons, the only running back who can claim that. Cockroft added that's a testament to Mixon's excellence in scoring position, as are his league-leading totals of 34 attempts and 17 touchdowns on goal-line carries.
It also helps that Mixon will play with a quarterback in Stroud who is not known as a runner.
Given all this, it's no surprise we're optimistic about Mixon's fantasy prospects this year. He's RB15 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. That's in line with his RB14 Average Draft Position on Underdog, but both are well off Mixon's RB6 finish in 2023.
All in all, his Round 6 price tag seems plenty reasonable . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook -- and the NFL's brief quiet time. Ravens rookies reported for training camp on Jul. 13 and the remaining teams will get started over the next 10 days.
If you're just checking in and need to catch up after an offseason spent decompressing, check out my What's New This Year: Each Team In 15 Seconds.
Otherwise, be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
