Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Real Money
A jury in U.S. District Court ordered the NFL to pay more than $4.7 billion in damages Thursday after ruling that the league violated antitrust laws in distributing out-of-market Sunday afternoon games on a premium subscription service.
The jury awarded $4.7 billion in damages to the residential class and $96 million in damages to the commercial class. As the Associated Press reported, the NFL could be liable for $14.39 billion since damages can be tripled under federal antitrust laws.
Post-trial motions, including one to set aside the verdict, will be heard on July 31. If the verdict isn't set aside, the NFL will appeal to the Ninth Circuit Court.
Should the league end up paying damages, it could cost each of the 32 teams approximately $449.6 million.
Or, as we call it here at Fantasy Notebook headquarters, "real money."
Footballguy Devin Knotts suggests changes to the Sunday Ticket model could affect future revenues, thus impacting the overall salary cap in coming years.
It's also reasonable to believe the league's owners would be less open to investing large sums of cash, which would impact the operational aspects of running a team.
Signing bonuses would be one of those things.
Who knows? The need to increase revenues to cover a loss might hasten the arrival of the 18-game season.
Whatever the case, as Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio wrote: "It would be an incredible development. More than $14 billion changing hands in the blink of an eye."
It's an off-field storyline worth watching, but there's plenty of gripping on-field intrigue, too . . .
Aiyuk Angst Likely To Rise
Brandon Aiyuk's recent post on TikTok, which appeared to show him telling former collegiate teammate and new Commanders QB Jayden Daniels over FaceTime that the 49ers said "they don't want me back ... I swear," caught everybody's attention and raised more questions about the star receiver's future with San Francisco.
Enough so that Aiyuk met with team officials this past Monday -- at Aiyuk's request.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reported on Tuesday that it was a "good meeting" that led to an understanding the 49ers have no interest in trading Aiyuk and Aiyuk has no interest in a trade.
Currently under contract at $14.1 million in 2024, the former first-round pick is understandably seeking a new deal with the club.
He reportedly wants $30 million or more per year.
This week, during an appearance on The Pivot Podcast with hosts Ryan Clark, Fred Taylor, and Channing Crowder, Aiyuk said he doesn't feel the two sides are close to a deal. He was also asked what uniforms he could see himself wearing in 2024.
"If I were to take a guess, probably a Niner uniform," Aiyuk said. "Probably a Niner uniform. If not a Niners uniform, probably a Washington Commanders uniform. If not a Washington Commanders uniform, probably a Steelers uniform."
However, as SI.com's Grant Cohn suggested, when discussing his contract, the 49ers treat Aiyuk like a high-level No. 2 receiver who's a replaceable product of Kyle Shanahan's system. When other teams try to trade for Aiyuk, the club acts like he's an elite No. 1 receiver worth a first-round pick and more.
Hence, Aiyuk's frustration.
ESPN's Adam Schefter recently shed a little more light on the situation when he shared that the two sides were close to a deal before the wide receiver market exploded this offseason.
"I think the number might have shifted in Aiyuk's mind," Schefter explained. "The Niners never were serious about trading him, and they want him back. But the problem is they can't get a deal done right now, so Aiyuk is interpreting that as they don't want me anymore."
The Athletic's Matt Barrows told me two weeks ago that the team has offered Aiyuk slightly less than the $28 million a year Amon-Ra St. Brown got from Detroit last month.
Barrows reminded me that the 49ers often take these deals to "the bitter end."
He pointed to Deebo Samuel's extension in 2022, which came on July 31 after a contentious offseason that included Samuel requesting a trade in April that year, and Nick Bosa's deal, which didn't get done until last September at the tail end of a summer-long holdout.
While their negotiation style is nerve-wracking and lends itself to the kind of discussions we've seen around, about, and even by Aiyuk, it has also been successful for the team.
The good news for fantasy managers is that the angst could depress Aiyuk's price, especially if the situation becomes more acrimonious -- something entirely possible with Aiyuk saying on the Pivot that he's been taking the negotiations "personal."
San Francisco drafted Aiyuk with the No. 25 overall pick in 2020. In 16 starts with the 49ers last season, he recorded 75 receptions for a career-high and team-leading 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns.
In addition, Aiyuk was among the league's most efficient receivers last year, ranking top three at the position in yards per catch, yards per route run, yards per target, and explosive reception rate.
With 1,015 receiving yards in 2022, Aiyuk has surpassed the 1,000-yard receiving mark in two consecutive seasons, becoming the first 49ers wide receiver to do so since Anquan Boldin in 2013 and 2014. He is also the first 49ers player to accomplish the feat since tight end George Kittle in 2018 and 2019.
Aiyuk finished 2023 as Fantasy's WR13. He was WR15 in 2022.
He is currently being drafted at his ceiling -- going as WR12 with the 18th pick overall -- on Underdog.
I haven't been investing at this price, but we should all watch to see if the cost starts dropping as concerns about the contract and a potential holdout gain more traction.
If it does, cash in when the time is right.
Remember: You can include risk (like adding a player holding out for a contract) on your roster without having a risky roster. But when you take chances on players, do it at the right price and mitigate that risk with safer picks in other spots . . .
Hall All In On Pursuit Of CMC
Despite returning to play after a torn ACL that cut short a promising 2022 rookie year, Breece Hall eventually returned strong last year, ranking fourth in all-purpose yards with 1,584 and collecting nine total touchdowns in 2023.
Hall especially found a groove near the end of the season, recording 191, 126, and 190 all-purpose yards in the Jets' final three contests.
Hall said last week that, 20 months after his injury, he feels stronger than ever, and his output over those final games could indicate his true potential for the 2024 campaign.
"I ended the season on a good note," Hall said. "And I've gotten better this offseason. I'm a lot leaner. I feel a lot healthier. My knee feels a lot better. I just feel like I'm back to my old self."
And what about his old self?
Hall burst onto the NFL scene as a rookie, collecting 463 yards and four TDs in just seven games (two starts) before his unfortunate knee injury.
Now that he's back at full strength with a couple of years under his belt and an offense around him that looks stronger with the return of Aaron Rodgers and some other key additions, it's not hard to view his potential ceiling with optimism.
"Really," Hall said. "It's just all on me."
An upgraded offensive ine will also help, but the third-year man has further motivation: Hall wants to prove he belongs among the upper echelon of running backs.
That endeavor will start with Hall pitted against the man viewed as the gold standard at the position as the Jets have a Week 1 meeting with Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers.
"I feel like right now McCaffrey's the best in the league. To me, he sets the standard," Hall said. "We're going to see him in Week 1, and we're playing against some of the best linebackers. For me, it's exciting just to see where I stand and really let everyone see my full talent now that I'm healthy."
McCaffrey is coming off his first full season with the Niners, in which he posted a career-best and league-leading 1,459 rushing yards and led the NFL in all-purpose yards and touchdowns en route to the Offensive Player of the Year award.
The 49ers reward McCaffrey with a new two-year, $38 million extension this month.
"It was cool, like I said, he sets the standard, so it was cool to see him raise the mark and then continue to get paid," Hall said. "He's a top-10 player in this league, and I feel like with my talent and the team we have, I have potential to trend towards that way. So I'm just excited to get rolling."
As I laid out in my Top-5 Fantasy Headlines two weeks ago, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Saquon Barkley are all in hot pursuit of McCaffrey for that RB1 spot.
Hall isn't just in that race.
His RB2 spot directly behind McCaffrey on both the Footballguys consensus and my own 2024 Draft Rankings -- one ahead of Robinson -- makes Hall the most likely to get the job done.
That said, you're paying for it.
Hall is currently being drafted as RB3 with the 8th pick overall on Underdog, two spots after Bijan. Gibbs and Barkley, who have the more affordable upside, are going with the 13th and 19th picks, respectively.
Knowing there's plenty of RB1 overall upside still available at various prices if you miss out on McCaffrey is encouraging for those of us who don't get one of the first few picks . . .
Williams Looking To Build . . . With Corum's Help?
As NFL.com's Nick Shook framed it, "The 2023 season was packed with pleasant surprises, including the sudden emergence of Kyren Williams."
After rushing for just 139 yards on 35 attempts as a rookie, Williams exploded in 2023, racking up 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns on 228 carries tallied in just 12 games. When Williams was on the field, the Rams offense was a multidimensional threat on every down.
With a breakout season now under his belt, Williams will no longer operate in the shadows of the NFL. He's ready to build on his newfound fame.
"Honestly, it's growing off of what I did last year," Williams said Tuesday during an appearance on the Rich Eisen Show.
He's looking to do that, in part, on the back of rookie teammate Blake Corum.
For real.
Williams went on to explain how he gets there by "Picking off of what I did last year -- being able to create more explosives in the run game, also being able to create more explosives in the pass game. I'm super excited that we went to go draft Blake Corum. (He's) somebody that can run the ball very well and hopefully it allows me to get to the slot or run routes out of the backfield to showcase my skills."
Williams' mention of Corum is important.
Shook explained, "Los Angeles had struggled to find reliable production in its backfield before Williams' surprising 2023 showing, and now, the Rams might have two backs capable of making a significant difference, thanks to the addition of the former Michigan star."
This isn't necessarily what Williams investors want to hear.
Williams was a breakout star last year, finishing as RB7 on the season. Volume paved the way for that success. Williams averaged 21.6 touches per game and finished third in rushing despite missing five games due to an ankle injury. The volume became an even greater factor down the stretch when Williams returned from injury.
From Weeks 12 through 17, when it mattered most to fantasy managers, Williams' touches increased to 25 a game. He was fantasy's RB2 over that span.
So now we're left to ponder how Corum might change the dynamic.
The next closest rusher last year was Royce Freeman, whose numbers (77 carries, 319 yards, two touchdowns) paled in comparison to Williams' totals.
But when Williams was absent, so too was Los Angeles' rushing attack, leading to three losses in the four games Williams missed. The team needed depth, and ESPN's Sarah Barshop contends the Day 2 draft capital expended on Corum shows how important the Rams viewed it.
Footballguy Jason Wood, chiming in on potential Rams Busts in our ongoing Team Vibes series, wrote: "The Rams didn't use a third-rounder on Corum to plant him on the bench, at least if he's as impressive learning the playbook this summer as we think he'll be. The Rams don't have any financial or strategic incentive to keep Williams as a workhorse; the most likely scenario is a true committee."
Williams is currently RB8 on Underdog.
Even ignoring the foot issue that limited him in some OTA sessions, the players going after him (including Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne Jr., Isiah Pacheco, and Josh Jacobs) offer similar upside at better prices.
Or as our own Ryan Weisse put it, "I don't hate players; I hate ADPs . . . His price is way too high . . ."
McLaughlin Buzz Growing
There has been speculation that Jaleel McLaughlin could be poised to replace Javonte Williams as Denver's lead back.
Footballguy and long-time, well-connected Broncos insider Cecil Lammey recently said, "The top Denver RB looks like McLaughlin."
Lammey even wondered if Williams would make the team.
"The top Denver RB looks like Jaleel McLaughlin - Will Javonte Williams even make the team?" - @CecilLammey
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) June 12, 2024
Cecil isn't alone when it comes to optimistic takes on McLaughlin.
Cody Roark of Mile High Sports advised his readers that McLaughlin stood out daily during OTAs.
Jaleel McLaughlin has wheels. Seems even faster this year. pic.twitter.com/GFKHdjxx5T
— Cody Roark (@CodyRoarkNFL) May 24, 2024
Roark added that head coach Sean Payton trusts the second-year back to do more this season than last year.
Remember, McLaughlin impressed as an undrafted rookie.
As the team's No. 3 running back, he dressed for all 17 games (with three starts); he totaled 76 carries for 410 years and a touchdown. He also had 31 receptions for 160 yards and two more scores.
That's high-end production, given the relatively low volume of touches.
Meanwhile, SI.com's Chad Jensen believes Payton's history of running backs catching passes out of the backfield, dating back to his 16 years with the Saints, is worth noting.
During that time, stars, including Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, and Kamara, emerged under Payton.
After the team's mandatory minicamp earlier this month, Payton said of McLaughlin, "I know he wants to continue to work on his role in the passing game."
We want that as well. So even if McLaughlin doesn't supplant Williams or move ahead of last year's No. 2, Samaje Perine, a receiving role might be sufficient here.
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix, the likely starter in Denver, completed at least 71 percent of his passes at Oregon last season. Some might complain that a third of those attempts were thrown to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage.
None of those complaining will be fantasy managers invested in McLaughlin.
And what if all the positive buzz here turns out to be pie in the sky?
First, I don't think it will be, but also, despite that increasing buzz, McLaughlin is currently RB50 on Underdog.
The list of players going ahead of McLaughlin includes Kendre Miller, Rico Dowdle, Packers rookie Marshawn Lloyd, Ty Chandler, Dolphins rookie Jaylen Wright, Tyler Allgeier, and Bills rookie Ray Davis.
There's plenty of upside on that list, but not all of them are the apparent apple of their coach's eye and have the anticipated role that will allow them to maximize it.
McConkey Making An Immediate Splash
The Chargers parted ways with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in March because of salary-cap issues, leaving Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston atop the depth chart.
Then, they selected Ladd McConkey in the second round.
According to Los Angeles Times staffer Jeff Miller, McConkey displayed the most potential throughout the offseason program, his precise route running and sudden quickness in tight spaces the sort of qualities that would appeal to any quarterback.
Those qualities definitely appeal to Justin Herbert.
"He understands the game," Herbert told Miller. "I'm really looking forward to getting him the ball."
The question is how much the Chargers will throw.
As NFL.com's Eric Edholm noted, Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011 to 2014, and they ranked no higher than 29th in the NFL in pass attempts and no lower than ninth in rushing attempts in any of his four seasons at the helm. According to Edholm, that can partially be attributed to the unusual system San Francisco ran with QBs Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick.
But the Niners also posted the lowest INT total in three of those seasons and twice ranked in the top 10 in yards per pass attempt.
Harbaugh's approach is distinctive.
"The Chargers will use six-plus offensive linemen and unbalanced formations," Edholm wrote. "They'll run the ball sometimes on third-and-6. This coach won't change his stripes completely."
In other words, with Herbert at QB, the Chargers won't suddenly stop throwing the ball.
There might be fewer attempts per game, but in a Harbaugh offense, you can expect an emphasis on efficiency in the passing attack. Associated Press sports writer Joe Reedy, who covers the team on a daily basis, told me this weekend that the receiving corps' development will be a factor.
Which brings us back to McConkey.
As our own Matt Waldman reminded readers in a recent edition of the Gut Check, Herbert's primary target during his career has been Allen, who has functioned mainly in the slot.
Waldman believes McConkey is Allen's direct replacement.
He's going in Round 6 as WR40 in current Underdog drafts.
Think he can't return that value in a run-heavy Greg Roman offense?
Think again.
Waldman contends the idea of McConkey earning 130-150 targets, 90-110 catches, 1,000-1,200 yards, and 3-5 scores isn't out of the question with the rookie assuming Allen's role.
While Roman's past receivers never reached that 150-target mark, they've come close enough.
Michael Crabtree drew 127 targets under Roman in San Francisco. Anquan Boldin's high as a Niner was 130. Sammy Watkins' was 128 in Buffalo. Hollywood Brown's was 146 as a Raven.
If others in your drafts back off out of concern about that run-heavy attack, let them worry while you reap the McConkey reward . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. As we head into July, I'll remind you that training camps start opening in just a few weeks.
Some of you might be checking in after dialing back over the offseason. If you need to catch up on where things stand in the league, check out my What's New This Year: Each Team In 15 Seconds.
Otherwise, be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him every Saturday at 3 pm ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
