Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
The Golden Age Of Wideouts
If you look at the first round of current Underdog best-ball drafts, you'll find just four running backs going before the turn.
The other eight players going in Round 1 are wide receivers.
But the wideout dominance goes beyond that.
You'll see 17 receivers off the board by the end of Round 2.
How about through three rounds?
The number of receivers selected in the first 36 picks is 26.
Nine running backs and one tight end are going in that range.
There are reasons for that.
The running back position is considered more volatile due to the injuries that are part and parcel of slamming into opposing defenders 20-plus times a game.
It should be noted that last year, nine receivers finished in the top 12, 14 were in the top 24, and 21 were in the top 36.
So we can debate how much the actual outcomes reflect our approach, but there's another factor here:
We're in the golden age of wideouts.
Ask Calvin Johnson.
The former Lion set the NFL single-season receiving record of 1,964 yards a dozen seasons ago. The Hall of Fame wideout expects his mark to fall eventually.
Speaking to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press last month, Johnson said he's bracing for the day he no longer holds the record.
"I mean, it's bound to fall at some point the way it's going, so it is what it is," Johnson said. "I held it down. I don't know even know how long, over a decade now."
Johnson set the 1,964-yard record in 2012, catching 122 passes in 16 games. He broke Jerry Rice's 1995 mark of 1,848 yards, which stood for 17 years.
As NFL.com notes, the addition of a 17th game to the schedule puts Johnson's record in more peril. Last season, Dolphins speedster Tyreek Hill was on pace to break the record until a late-season ankle injury derailed his effort. Hill finished with 1,799 yards. Two years ago, Justin Jefferson went for 1,809 yards.
Rams receiver Cooper Kupp has come the closest in the 17-game era, going for 1,947 yards in 17 games in 2021.
The NFL's offensive-tilted rules also favor passing, providing the burgeoning young group of receivers more chances to catch Johnson.
In addition, as USA Today put it, "The massive contracts handed out this season underscore the thriving position."
In case you've missed it, four of the five highest-paid pass-catchers have signed contract extensions since late April. The Vikings' Justin Jefferson reset the market with a four-year, $140 million deal reached earlier this month, but the Philadelphia Eagles' A.J. Brown, Detroit Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown and Miami Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle also reeled in big deals.
The trend will continue through this summer and into next offseason, with the Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb, the 49ers' Brandon Aiyuk, and the Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all looking next in line to score massive payouts.
We'll monitor those players as training camps draw nearer.
In the meantime, let's dive into some more stories from the past week and explore the fantasy ramifications . . .
T-Law Cheaper For You Than He Was For The Jags
Wide receivers aren't the only players grabbing their bags this offseason.
Quarterbacks are doing all right, too.
Most recently, Trevor Lawrence agreed to a five-year, $275 million extension with the Jaguar. The deal includes $200 million in guaranteed money, with $142 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Lawrence's contract pays him $55 million annually, matching Joe Burrow's league-leading contract in total value and average annual salary.
Lawrence becomes the sixth quarterback to have an annual salary above $50 million, joining Burrow, the Lions' Jared Goff ($53 million), the Chargers' Justin Herbert ($52.5 million), Baltimore's Lamar Jackson ($52 million) and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts ($51 million).
The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes II II, who just won his third Super Bowl, is the next-highest-paid quarterback at $46.339 million annually.
Lawrence's new contract makes him the ninth quarterback with $100 million or more fully guaranteed, joining the Browns' Deshaun Watson ($230 million), Burrow ($146.5 million), Jackson ($135 million), Herbert ($133.7 million), Goff ($113.6 million), Hurts ($110 million), the Cardinals' Kyler Murray ($103.3 million) and Buffalo's Josh Allen ($100 million).
The Jaguars selected Lawrence first overall in 2021. As ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco reminded readers, Lawrence struggled as a rookie under coach Urban Meyer -- who was fired after only 13 games -- and finished with a league-high 17 interceptions.
Doug Pederson helped Lawrence get back on track in 2022, and a second-half sprint -- including seven wins in the Jaguars' final nine games -- led to a 9-8 finish that earned Jacksonville a trip to the playoffs for the first time since the 2017 season.
NFL.com's Nick Shook notes that Lawrence became the face of the franchise during this run, completing 69.7 percent of his passes for 2,273 yards and a 15-2 TD-INT ratio, seemingly completing his coming-out party with a frantic comeback win over the Chargers on Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Jaguars started the season 3-7 but went 6-1 in the last two months and won the AFC South.
More importantly, Lawrence's 18.1 fantasy points per game made him QB6.
Entering the 2023 season, expectations were understandably high.
Calvin Ridley joined a receiving corps that already featured 2022 breakout receiver Christian Kirk, who finished his first season as a Jaguar as WR12 thanks to an 84-catch, 1,108-yard, 8-touchdown season, and Evan Engram, coming off a TE5 campaign.
Lawrence was an ascending talent on a potential breakout team. He was being drafted as such, with a QB8 Average Draft Position on Underdog last August.
But the season didn't play out as expected.
An underperforming offensive line and injuries to his receiving corps and to Lawrence himself (he battled a concussion and ankle and shoulder injuries over the final six weeks) led to disappointment.
He finished with fewer touchdowns, a lower passer rating, and more interceptions in 2023 than in 2022.
As a result, Lawrence has 60 turnovers in his first three seasons, which includes an NFL-high 21 in 2023 (14 interceptions, seven lost fumbles). According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only 11 quarterbacks who have made their debut since 1978 have turned the ball over more in their first three seasons.
That list includes three Hall of Famers: Warren Moon (73, tied with Steve DeBerg for the most), Peyton Manning (64) and John Elway (61).
Given all that, it should be no surprise we're willing to give Lawrence another shot.
And we definitely are.
As we prepare for the 2024 season, Lawrence is being drafted as QB14 on Underdog, which is in line with his QB13 spot on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings.
Lawrence has 8,129 yards passing and 55 combined passing and rushing touchdowns. Only three other quarterbacks in that span have thrown for more than 8,000 yards and have 55 combined passing and rushing touchdowns, per ESPN Stats and Information research: Mahomes (9,433 yards and 72 TDs), Goff (9,013 and 72), and Allen (8,589 and 86).
Drafting Lawrence as your QB2 or even taking a shot on him as your QB1 and taking advantage of the opportunities gained by waiting even longer on the position seem plenty viable this year . . .
Stevenson Gets Feature-Back Money
Rhamondre Stevenson said earlier this month that he believed a contract extension with the New England Patriots was "pretty close."
He was correct.
The Patriots and the running back reached an agreement Thursday on a four-year extension worth $36 million, with $17 million guaranteed.
Stevenson joined the Patriots as a fourth-round pick in 2021 out of Oklahoma. In 41 NFL games, he has totaled 2,265 rushing yards on 499 carries with 14 touchdowns. He's also been productive as a pass-catcher, with 121 receptions for 782 yards and one touchdown.
He was entering the final year of the four-year contract he signed as a rookie, which included a base salary of $3.116 million for the 2024 season.
"I think he's one of the better backs in the league, no doubt about it," Patriots head coach Jared Mayo said at the team's mandatory minicamp two weeks ago. "I'm excited to see what he does this season, and look, he's earned everything that he gets."
The new deal makes Stevenson the seventh highest-paid RB in the NFL on a per-year basis.
It also puts him in line for a featured role under first-year offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, who plans to lean heavily on the wide-zone runs the Browns used during his tenure in Cleveland.
Stevenson said he's spent time studying the scheme this offseason, and as part of that process, he watched film of Browns running back Nick Chubb.
Stevenson is a solid fit for the scheme, and the film study should serve him well. But he won't be alone in the backfield. Free agent addition Antonio Gibson is there to complement him.
To get a better feel for how the workload might be divided, Footballguy Ryan Weisse pointed to Van Pelt's recent history, reminding readers how the duo of Chubb and Kareem Hunt held down Cleveland's backfield from 2020 to 2022.
After Chubb went down last year, it was a two-back system again with Hunt and Jerome Ford.
Weisse added: "The most likely scenario is that Stevenson is the primary runner, ceding some passing game work to Gibson. If that means a Chubb-like role for Stevenson, it should pay dividends in fantasy.
Stevenson can be had as RB21 on Underdog. This aligns with our Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, where he sits at RB20.
That seventh-round price isn't exorbitant, considering Stevenson was RB19 over the first 11 games of last season (before he was hurt in Week 13).
All that said, there are other appealing backs in this same range, and most of them aren't on offenses tied for the lowest-scoring output in the NFL last year.
Let this be your reminder: Mining lesser offenses is acceptable from a fantasy perspective as long as you stay close to the surface and lean into a narrow band of front-line players.
For now, Stevenson is that, and Thursday's payday only makes it clearer . . .
Lions Have A Plan For Gibbs; We're Going To Like It
Lions General Manager Brad Holmes said recently that the team expects running back Jahmyr Gibbs to carry a heavier load in his second season, but that doesn't necessarily mean a sharp rise in the number of times he runs the ball.
Veteran running back David Montgomery had 30 more carries than Gibbs and led the Lions with 1,015 yards rushing, playing one fewer game than Gibbs last season.
Still, Gibbs made his mark on the NFL as a rookie last season, rushing for 945 yards (5.2 avg.) and ten touchdowns to go along with 52 receptions for 316 yards and another score, totaling 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns.
He was third in scrimmage yards among all rookies, second in rushing yards, and tops among all first-year players in touchdowns. He was second among all NFL running backs with ten rushes of 20-plus yards.
So, how do we get more out of Gibbs in Year 2?
Most of Gibbs' catches came as a safety valve out of the backfield, and running backs coach Scottie Montgomery told reporters that the team hopes to see a greater variety of contributions this season.
"Now what we need him to do from a passing game standpoint is go to the next level," Montgomery said.
St. Brown, with 164, and tight end Sam LaPorta -- 120 -- got the bulk of the targets in the passing game last season. Gibbs got the third most targets with 71 -- an average of 4.7 per game.
Josh Reynolds' departure in free agency should open up more targets in the passing game for others. Jameson William could help fill that void, but Gibbs' potential to be a much bigger part of the passing game, not just as a drop-off or short option route receiver but as a deeper threat, could be huge for him and the Lions' passing game.
Bumping Gibbs' targets up even slightly would make a difference.
Breece Hall led all NFL running backs with 90 targets -- 5.2 per game, so it wouldn't take much per week to get Gibbs at the top of that list with players like Hall, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Alvin Kamara, who had 86 targets last year.
Gibbs is a terrific open-field runner, and the Lions will continue to find ways to get him the ball in space.
Fantasy managers are on board. He's RB4 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, which aligns with his current Underdog ADP.
Worried about Montgomery?
Gibbs' RB10 finish last season came with his veteran running mate finishing as RB17. There's room for both to succeed . . .
Kamara Rebound Coming?
Kamara is looking for a new contract, so he didn't attend the voluntary portions of the Saints offseason work. Instead, he got his first look at new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's scheme during last week's mandatory minicamp practice. He liked what he saw.
"Run looks, pass looks -- everything is intentional about this offense," Kamara said.
Kubiak came to the Saints from the 49ers, so it's only natural to think he'll try to mimic some of what San Francisco does with McCaffrey.
Kamara might not be able to deliver CMC-like totals, but even being in the ballpark would serve the Saints -- and fantasy managers -- well this season.
Kamara finished 2023 with a disappointing 1,100 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns after missing the first three weeks to suspension. While those might be solid totals for some, as recently as 2020, the veteran star delivered seasons of around 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Kamara is going to be 29 next month. Is he washed?
We don't think so.
For one thing, as Underhill notes, the Saints didn't block well enough last season.
They averaged 1.0 yards before contact on outside zone plays, with Kamara specifically averaging 1.1. The 49ers averaged 1.8 yards before contact on those plays, with McCaffrey hitting 2.1.
Overall, Kamara averaged 1.4 yards before contact per carry. That number was 1.3 in 2022 and 0.9 in 2021. When the running back was at his best in 2017 and 2020, those figures came in at 2 and 2.2.
A little help goes a long way, and if Kamara is getting into space and first contact is coming from a linebacker or defensive back instead of a defensive lineman, Underhill believes it's a safe bet that his broken tackles per attempt rates increase, too.
But another thing . . . The price is right.
Kamara is RB13 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. That's well ahead of his RB20 Average Draft Position on Underdog.
That Round 6-7 range he's going in is a target-rich environment, but if reporting and concerns about his contract increase as training camp draws nearer, it could depress Kamara's price a bit further and make him stand out even more.
And one last thing: Kamara was RB6 from Weeks 5 through 18 last season . . .
Metcalf Merits More Attention
This past week, there was considerable talk about Jaxson Smith-Njigba's readiness to move up in Seattle's receiving hierarchy ahead of Tyler Lockett.
That's great.
You know who he's not moving past?
Overlooked in all the talk about JSN were incoming head coach Mike Macdonalds's comments about Metcalf.
Macdonald stated the obvious. Metcalf is a "big, imposing, fast, powerful receiver." But Macdonald also said the new coaching staff wants to get the ball to Metcalf "a lot" and make him a "moving target."
Metcalf has the physical tools necessary to be the best wide receiver in the NFL.
The 6-4, 235-pound Metcalf posted the fastest speed in the NFL last season -- 22.23 mph on a 73-yard touchdown catch.
Leaning into that speed and those physical attributes, Metcalf has become one of the league's most consistent producers at the position, putting up substantial numbers playing with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith and under different offensive coordinators.
Through his first five NFL seasons, Metcalf has 372 catches for 5,332 yards and 43 touchdowns. He's also racked up at least 900 yards and six touchdowns or more every season, a feat matched only by A.J. Green and Randy Moss.
It's all quite impressive.
Now, Metcalf will work under coordinator Ryan Grubb, who might be the most highly-touted play-caller Seattle has had in a long time.
At the very least, Grubb's scheme is a departure from the offenses Metcalf has been in for much of his career.
The Seahawks' previous coordinators, Brian Schottenheimer and Shane Waldron, had run-first approaches under coach Pete Carroll, and they operated on the slower side of the offensive pace spectrum.
Last season, the Seahawks had the 17th-most pass attempts (33 per game). Meanwhile, Grubb's teams at the University of Washington had one of the highest pass rates in the country.
Over the last two years, Grubb called passing plays 61.8 percent of the time. The Huskies averaged an FBS-high 355.8 passing yards per game and ranked 15th in dropback percentage over that span while operating at a very high tempo.
The results?
Washington ranked sixth in the FBS with 487 yards per game last year. They were sixth in scoring, with 36.7 points per game.
Metcalf is currently being drafted in the third round as WR20 on Underdog.
If Smith is on point this year, Metcalf is going to finish closer to WR1 than WR3 territory . . .
Cooper's Price Ain't Right
According to Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot, Deshaun Watson is passing the ball with his normal velocity and range coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder, and everyone is optimistic about his on-schedule recovery.
The team will take a cautious approach as we head into training camp, but Cabot made it clear Watson is 100 percent on track to be under center against the Cowboys come Week 1.
If so, it will quickly become apparent that those participating in early best balls are stealing Amari Cooper.
After his WR8 output in 2022, Cooper finished last year as WR20, but that's deceiving.
His performance down the stretch, with Joe Flacco as his quarterback in Weeks 12 through 17, was downright dominant.
Cooper averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game, including a record-setting and league-winning Week 16 showing against the Texans.
What should we expect this year?
Cooper was WR18 over the first three games last year with Watson under center.
Watson returned from injury at midseason and delivered two healthy starts. Cooper was WR5 over those two weeks.
It's hard for me to imagine Cooper, currently WR23 on the Footballguys Draft Rankings, not outperforming that spot or his current WR29 ADP . . .
If you want more players like this heading into the 2024 season, the Footballguys staff has a positional series on Undervalued Players -- including 11 Undervalued Wide Receivers . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible (where you'll find my weekly Top-5 Fantasy Headlines every Friday), Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him every Saturday at 3 pm ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
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