With 19 NFL teams closing out their final mandatory minicamps on Thursday, the offseason workout programs for all 32 teams are officially over.
Next on the agenda are training camps, which will start rolling out over the last two weeks of July.
In the meantime, there will be news.
This past week, Trevor Lawrence became the latest quarterback to join the $50-plus million a year club when he signed a $275 million extension with the Jaguars, including $200 million in guaranteed money. Tee Higgins signed his franchise tender, which, in addition to allowing him to join the team when training camp opens, also guarantees him $21.8 million in salary this year and (based on recent extensions signed by an array of wideouts) sets him up for a massive deal in the future (perhaps even an extension with the Bengals before the deadline the middle of next month).
Some players are also pushing for new contracts, with CeeDee Lamb, Alvin Kamara, Amari Cooper, and Courtland Sutton among them. So, there will undoubtedly be further developments before training camps open, and we'll have all of it covered, as usual, with your Footballguys Daily Update.
And even if the news slows a bit, we'll be plenty busy here as we continue to set the table for the upcoming season both on the Footballguys site and on our three YouTube channels, The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy, and Footballguys Dynasty.
In addition, this week starts with a three-roundtable series featuring the entire staff offering up overall Vibes, Sleepers, and Busts team by team.
In other words, even when the league slows down, we keep grinding because we know you're doing the same.
With the preliminaries out of the way, it's time for another of our weekly looks at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: Commanders
Kliff Kingsbury is back in the NFL as offensive coordinator of the Commanders, and, as Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper reported, the coach's s previous stint in the league came up during his introductory press conference.
Kingsbury went 28-37-1 during a four-year run as the head coach of the Cardinals, which began with high hopes for what he'd be able to achieve offensively with quarterback Kyler Murray. However, the team only went to the playoffs once and never finished higher than 11th in points scored during his tenure.
During that press conference, Kingsbury was asked if he has something to prove to himself or others in the league because of how his things played out in Arizona.
"I don't. That's not how I approach it," Kingsbury said. "I do this because I enjoy the game. I enjoy the players, the mentorship. The Sundays, that type of competitive situation. I've never gotten into it to prove anybody wrong or right or anything like that."
For the record, the people in Washington don't believe Kingsbury has anything to prove, either.
According to ESPN.com's John Keim, the Commanders' players have liked what they've seen from the installation of his offense and what they've heard from their new coordinator.
Those who know him best are even more positive.
"He's one of the best offensive minds that I've been around," tight end Zach Ertz, who played two seasons for Kingsbury in Arizona, told Keim.
A Heavy Lift
Still, as Keim added, "Turning Washington around won't be easy."
The Commanders' returning players will be learning a new offense for the second time in two seasons, going from the West Coast system used by Eric Bieniemy to Kingsbury's version of the Air Raid.
They'll also have to learn new assistants, namely former Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson (pass-game coordinator) and former Los Angeles Chargers coach Anthony Lynn (run-game coordinator).
Also, Washington has a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels and will have at least six new starters on offense.
But the changes make sense. At the very least, Washington's offense needs a jumpstart.
Keim notes that the club has not finished in the top 10 in yards per game since 2016 and has not been in the top 10 in points since 2015. In fact, Washington has not even finished in the top half in either category since 2017.
Worse, there have only been four seasons since 2000 when the team ranked in the top 10 in yards or points per game . . .
What's The Plan?
When new head coach Dan Quinn announced the hiring, he said Kingsbury's offensive approach reminded him of Kyle Shanahan's.
They're not the same, but Quinn told Keim that Kingsbury and Shanahan (Quinn's offensive coordinator for two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons) run offenses that share similar tenets -- stretching the field horizontally and vertically.
"Going against Kliff, those same feelings you had, this is going to be tough, matchups, formations, speed, shots down the field, aggressiveness, boldness," Quinn said.
An unnamed NFL coach who has faced Kingsbury multiple times told Keim he likes how Kingsbury has evolved as an offensive coach in the NFL. The coach said early in his Arizona career, Kingsbury did not throw enough between the hashes -- they were 25th in his first two seasons. But in his final two seasons, Arizona ranked 13th.
The coach also said he likes how Kingsbury incorporated the tight end more, which will likely occur in Washington. The Cardinals were 12th in his first year and 10th in his final three years combined using two-tight end sets. Arizona also ranked 30th in his first two seasons and 15th in his final two years in passes to the tight end.
Some of that will be incorporated in Washington, where the Commanders used more three-receiver sets than the Cardinals did under Kinsgbury.
Washington also used less no-huddle compared to Kingsbury's Cardinals. During Kingsbury's four seasons in Arizona, the Cardinals ran no-huddle on 1,491 plays; no other team ran more than 865. Washington used it 328 times in that span, including 49 times last season.
Faster-paced offenses are fantasy-friendly offenses.
For his part, Daniels said he likes "the creative mind that he has, how he can attack defenses. Obviously, what he was doing with Arizona, with Kyler, and having success."
Like Murray, Daniels is a quarterback who can run, though he has a different style. But Kingsbury knows he's starting from square one with his personnel in Washington, so the immediate objective is clear . . .
Maximizing Daniels' Talents
From the time Daniels arrived in Washington, he preached the same message: He wants to do his job and is not elevating himself to any status other than rookie. He said he's working on "everything." He arrives at the facility daily around 5:45 am, watches film, and does walk-throughs in the practice bubble with rookie receiver Luke McCaffrey.
Daniels also picks the brains of veterans such as linebacker Bobby Wagner.
"If you really, really want to be successful, you want to learn, you want to be a pro at the highest level," Daniels said, "you got to take knowledge of people, learn from their routines . . . I just want to learn how to go out there and be a pro. And I'm just trying to soak up as much knowledge as possible."
That approach explains why the quarterback's teammates and coaches have often shared how impressed they are with him after his first offseason.
The one person who isn't buying into the hype? Daniels.
"I ain't a star quarterback yet," he said, responding to a question about getting some perks of a franchise quarterback. "I got a long way to go."
He also hasn't been named the starter.
Still, the Commanders made it clear they were staking their future on Daniels when they selected him as the second overall pick, and, as Alper recently suggested, it's hard to imagine Marcus Mariota showing the Commanders enough to justify keeping Daniels on the bench.
That doesn't mean Daniels is a finished product. But it's fair to believe the Commanders will let him sort that out on the field.
And when they do?
I'll remind you Daniels threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions at LSU in his 2023 Heisman Trophy-winning season. He also rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs. That rushing ability sets him apart, and it's why Daniels heads into training camp as QB11 on the Footballguys Draft Rankings.
Yes, there are concerns about his slight frame; Daniels, at 6-4 and 210 pounds, doesn't back off contact.
But the positives are obvious, and, as USA Today's Doug Farrar contends, based on the 103 explosive plays the QB delivered last season, there isn't a book on how to stop Daniels.
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom added to that when he said: "Defensive coordinators do not want to prepare for a quarterback like him."
And even if you think Kingsbury could have been a better head coach in Arizona, his offense maximized the talent of Murray, who delivered top-10 production in his first two seasons under Kingsbury, including a QB2 finish in his second season in 2020.
Last year, Anthony Richardson was a player I considered a reasonably-priced fantasy lottery ticket with million-dollar upside.
With Richardson's price rising, Daniels, currently going late in Round 8 or early in Round 9, is now my favorite high-upside option . . .
Receivers Ready For Stability
Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has played alongside several quarterbacks during his six seasons with the Commanders. Jahan Dotson has played with four quarterbacks over his two seasons.
Both of them hope the revolving door is now closed.
McLaurin said this week that Daniels is "really prepared" and that "there's an open door of communication" about what Daniels needs to do to get ready for the regular season. McLaurin said it's a first for him to work with a young quarterback who "knows who he is, but he's also not afraid to say when he's wrong."
It didn't take long for McLaurin to realize that Daniels has a good feel for anticipating where his receivers will be open in the middle of the field. Not only can he make the throws -- McLaurin said he had to tell his fellow receivers to get their heads around when Daniels throws to crossing routes -- but he also knows how to throw passes in ways that receivers can get yards after the catch.
Daniels also has "amazing" touch on deep passes, McLaurin said.
As Footballguy Jeff Hasley suggested upon Daniels' arrival, "McLaurin is a constant offensive producer who has thrived with all levels of quarterback play. He may not rise above the top 20, but if Daniels can adapt quickly and thrive in Kingsbury's offense, McLaurin has the chance to see a rise from his 29th ranking last season."
McLaurin is currently WR32 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, in line with his WR31 Average Draft Position (ADP) on Underdog.
Meanwhile, in identifying sleeper receivers to target last week, our own Phil Alexander wrote: "With a consensus ADP of WR64, you don't have to believe in Daniels to risk a shot on Dotson. If he doesn't recapture his rookie form, send him packing to the waiver wire. But if he does, you'll enjoy a high-pedigree WR3 at tremendous value."
Footballguy Jason Wood took that a step further and suggested with Daniels and a new coaching staff, "Dotson represents a free lottery ticket that could pay off massively . . ."
As for tight end, promising rookie Ben Sinnot is currently TE19 on Underdog. His Round 13 ADP is steep compared to Ertz, who was TE38 available in the last round.
That said, feel free to pick your free square of choice here . . .
Ekeler Looking To Rebound; Robinson An Obstacle
Ahead of the 2023 season, Austin Ekeler, in the final year of a four-year $24.1 million contract he signed in 2020, demanded a trade after he and the Chargers couldn't agree to a long-term extension.
Eventually, Ekeler returned on a revised deal with added incentives and had one of his career's worst seasons.
He ran 179 times for 628 yards while catching 51 passes for 436 yards in 14 games. Ekeler averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, struggled with drops, and had five rushing touchdowns after getting 25 combined in the two previous seasons. He also had a single touchdown catch last season.
However, his receiving skills have been undeniable throughout his career, and NFL.com's Nick Shook believes the Commanders should focus on that receiving role, with Ekler serving as a pass-catching complement to starter Brian Robinson Jr
That makes even more sense, as Antonio Gibson moved on to New England as an unrestricted free agency.
Ekeler got a two-year deal worth up to $11.43 million.
Unfortunately, we can't look back at Gibson's 2023 RB39 finish (that included 48 catches for 389 yards) to get a feel for Ekeler's range of outcomes.
With Kingsbury on board, the Commanders are starting from scratch. According to Washington Post staffer Sam Fortier, the new playcaller has been using two-back sets in minicamp.
Still, as Wood suggested, "Ekeler getting rotational RB2 money" is a tell.
Our colleague Dave Kluge agreed. "That money tells me Ekeler is going to take the vacated Gibson role," Kluge wrote. "Robinson feels like a Dan Quinn guy."
FantasyPros' Derek Brown added to that by suggesting Robinson's current ADP on Underdog -- RB34 -- makes no sense, especially considering Kenyan Drake's and James Conner's outputs under Kingsbury in Arizona.
Brian Robinson's ADP on @UnderdogFantasy makes absolutely zero sense (RB34, 112.3 overall)
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 6, 2024
ESPECIALLY when you also take into account it has dropped after the NFL Draft...
Jayden Daniels will help the rushing efficiency.
Robinson was an underrated rusher last year ranking:… pic.twitter.com/wCzhFzOHah
Still, Ekeler sits at RB19 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, while Robinson is RB38.
Why?
Wood contends, "Daniels' rushing ability and Ekeler's receiving make Robinson a bore."
Maybe so.
But my rankings on Footballguys, which have Robinson as RB30 and Ekeler as RB36, are more in line with their current ADPs on Underdog, where Robinson is going as RB33 and Ekeler is RB38 . . .
Barkley's Fortuitous Landing Spot
The Eagles paid up to land former Giant Saquon Barkley, signing the veteran running back to a three-year, $37 million contract in free agency.
That's real money in a league where only six running backs make over $10 million annually, including Barkley at $13 million.
What prompted Philly to buck the trend of devaluing the position? Well, it turns out that devaluation was the very reason.
"Has the pendulum swung so far at this position," Eagles GM Howie Roseman recently asked before adding: "I mean, the guy touches the ball 300 times a year, hopefully."
That's precisely what we, as fantasy managers, want to hear.
Barkley rushed for over 5,200 yards in six seasons with the New York Giants. He added 288 catches for 2,100 yards.
He did so under less-than-ideal conditions, which was also a consideration.
The Eagles realized what we should all consider heading into this season.
It's not just that Philadelphia has arguably more offensive talent than any team in the NFL.
No. It's more that Barkley was surrounded by one of the league's least-talented offensive teams for the previous six seasons.
For example, Eagles wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith topped 1,000 receiving yards apiece in each of their two seasons together.
In New York, Barkley only played with one receiver who even approached those numbers -- Odell Beckham, who had 1,052 receiving yards when Barkley was a rookie.
Not coincidentally, that was Barkley's best receiving year; he had 91 catches for 721 yards.
Jalen Hurts, an MVP candidate in 2022, vs. Daniel Jones? Well . . .
Not close.
Hurts was an MVP candidate in 2022, and he had a statistically similar season last year (with the notable exception being an increase in interceptions). Over the past two seasons, Hurts has averaged 3,779.5 passing yards on 66 percent passing with 22.5 touchdown passes and 10.5 interceptions.
Jones has never put up passing numbers close to that.
His best season was 2022, when he threw for 3,205 yards with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. Yes, he's a dual-threat quarterback, but Hurts is a better one.
Hurts has averaged 682.5 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns in the past two seasons. Jones had one year like that -- again in 2022, when he ran for 708 yards and seven touchdowns.
But the offensive lines offer the starkest comparison between what Barkley has now versus what he had then.
The Eagles' line has consistently been one of the best in the NFL, while the Giants' line has consistently been one of the worst.
It's hard to tell the story of how wide the gap is with numbers, but this one does a decent job.
Barkley, on average, ran just one yard before getting hit last season, according to Pro Football Focus. D'Andre Swift, the Eagles' primary back last year, averaged 2.1 yards before contact.
With an extra yard before first contact, Barkley -- who ran for 962 yards in 14 games last year -- would have run for at least 271 more.
Barkley is our RB5. Given the supporting cast and anticipated workload, he's absolutely in the running for that RB1 finish, something Bloom and Cecil Lammey discussed on their 6 Players That Can Break Fantasy Football on The Audible earlier this week . . .
The Other Side Of That Coin
The Giants signed Devin Singletary, who worked under current head coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo, to a three-year, $16.5 million deal, to replace Barkley.
As Profootballtalk.com's Michael David Smith suggested, some may see that as a step backward at the position.
Singletary does not.
Singletary thinks he brings the same things to the Giants that Barkley did. "I feel like I'm a playmaker like him," Singletary told the New York Post.
Singletary can make a good case for himself statistically.
Over the five years they've both been in the league, Singletary has more rushing yards and a higher yards-per-carry average than Barkley.
In addition, Singletary, who has 20 rushing touchdowns in 78 career games, has been a serviceable receiver, pulling in 175 career catches for 1,164 yards and another four TDs.
Barkley produces more highlight-reel runs. Singletary has been healthier and more consistent.
And he's delivered when given the opportunity.
Last year, Singletary was expected to serve as the backup to Dameon Pierce in Houston. But Pierce struggled, and a three-game absence due to an ankle injury opened the door for Singletary.
As the Texans' starter from Weeks 9 through 18, Singletary rushed for 715 yards, which ranked third in the league.
Now he takes over a Giants backfield with a tremendous need.
Last season, Barkley averaged 17.6 carries and nearly three catches a game over the 14 contests he was on the field.
Again, Barkley worked behind an offensive line that ranked 26th as a run-blocking unit in Footballguy Matt Bitonti's 2023 Offensive Line Rankings.
Given all the challenges, can Singletary fill the Barkley-sized hole in this offense?
The good news is I don't need him to.
Singletary is RB31 in our rankings, which aligns with his RB32 ADP on Underdog.
Even with reports this week that rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. is pushing for a receiving role, grabbing Singletary as an RB3 gives you a depth player with a solid role -- and maybe some upside if last year's production was more indicative of his abilities than we realize.
Alfredo Brown and Kluge shared their thoughts on Singletary on the 8 Players with Massive Opportunities on the Footballguys Fantasy Football channel earlier this week.
The argument isn't that Singletary is great. It's that getting him in Round 9 is great.
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Be sure to catch my weekly Top-Five Fantasy Headlines video on The Audibles channel every Friday.
Otherwise, I appreciate your time and look forward to having you join me next week for another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him every Saturday at 3 pm ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
