You often hear me talk about the genius-level programming that keeps the NFL atop the sports news cycle year-round.
As I characterized it in a previous Fantasy Notebook, the league has created a "365-day-a-year reality show" -- a journey that takes us from Super Bowl to Scouting Combine, to free-agent signing period, to NFL Draft, to mini-camps and OTAs, to training camp, to exhibition season, to the regular season, to the postseason, to the Super Bowl . . .
This past week reminds me of the one thing I always leave out: The annual NFL Schedule release.
There might be a reason for my omission.
It's possible I don't feel as strongly about this as the rest of you. And it has to do with it being more of a fan-related event.
I don't have a favorite team. If asked, my stock answer is, "I hate them all equally."
That's an exaggeration. There's no real hate here, but I'm not emotionally invested in any franchise.
I get your enthusiasm. I don't share in it.
But there are reasons beyond that keeping me from getting too worked up about the fantasy implications of the schedule release.
Footballguy Leo Paciga did a great job laying out my issues with the strength of schedule discussions in his article A Tapestry of Razors, The Psychology of Fantasy Football.
In discussing induction, Paciga highlighted our tendency to use "past events to predict the future and assumes the future will behave like the past."
The problem with that, Paciga explained, is "the NFL landscape is swirling with change from FA signings, trades, incoming draft classes, role clarity, constant coaching changes, and the synergy that exists between new schemes (offensively and defensively) and the athletes who play the game."
Because of all that, our understanding of srength of the schedule in May is sketchy at best, kids.
While it might help split hairs between similar players, I'm not making critical judgments or final decisions based on it.
I am, of course, looking at the byes. You should, too.
2024 NFL Bye Schedule...
— Sharp Football Analysis (@SharpFBAnalysis) May 16, 2024
Weeks 12 and 14 not ideal for fantasy football. pic.twitter.com/Gi3iGKvGBG
If, like me, you're well into double-digit drafts on the various best-ball sites, you're already checking to see how many of your already-completed rosters have glaring holes due to bye issues.
And yes, as Sharp Football suggested, take an extra minute or two to double-check Weeks 12 and 14.
Of course, Footballguys has the Full 2024 Schedule Grid available to you.
Also, worth noting . . . It's going to be harder to watch games. Or at least more complicated. And more expensive.
As Profootballtalk.com pointed out this week, to see every game in the 2024 NFL regular season, you'll need access to an array of platforms: NBC, CBS, Fox, ABC, Sunday Ticket, NFL Network, ESPN, ESPN+, Amazon Prime, Peacock, and Netflix.
It's a brave new world, people . . .
With the preliminaries out of the way, let's get to the good stuff. As we'll continue to do until we've hit all of them, the fun starts with a look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Seahawks
The Seahawks wound up going local at offensive coordinator, hiring former University of Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to the same position on new coach Mike Macdonald's staff.
As ESPN.com's Brady Henderson reported, Grubb had accepted the Alabama offensive coordinator job after spending the past two seasons at Washington under former Huskies and current Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer.
Instead, Grubb returned to Seattle for his first job in the NFL.
Grubb replaces Shane Waldron, who served as Seahawks' offensive coordinator for the past three seasons. Waldron left to take the same position with the Bears in January after Seattle fired Pete Carroll.
While Grubb has never worked in the NFL, his new boss, Seahawks incoming head coach Mike Macdonald, said during his introductory news conference that NFL playcalling experience wasn't a prerequisite for his offensive coordinator in Seattle. "It's not near the top of the list," Macdonald said.
But recent history can help us here.
At Washington, Grubb ran a pass-heavy offense that ranked sixth in the FBS in yards per game (487.0) and sixth in scoring (36.7) in that span. With Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, the Huskies led the FBS in passing yards per game (355.8) the past two seasons and ranked 15th in dropback percentage, calling passing plays 61.8 percent of the time.
Grubb also served as the Huskies' quarterbacks coach, working closely in that role with Penix, who threw 67 touchdown passes in 28 games over the past two seasons.
Last year, Penix led the nation in passing yards (4,218), passing yards per game (324.5), and ranked No. 3 nationally with 33 passing touchdowns and sixth overall in total offense (323.1).
The Seahawks had the 17th-most pass attempts last season (33 per game), and when you have weapons in DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it makes sense to try and get the ball to them as often as possible.
Expect Grubb to find interesting ways to do that . . .
More Wrinkly Than Gimmicky
According to Yahoo! NFL analyst Nate Tice, Grubb "used wrinkles like varying tempos and formation tweaks -- bunches, stacks, receivers in the backfield, motion, all the good stuff -- to keep defenses off-balance.
"It was not gimmicky."
Tice further explained the Huskies used plenty of tried-and-true offensive staples with sound rules in the route distribution and protection (incoming Seahawks offensive line coach Scott Huff was Washington's O-line coach and followed Grubb to Seattle).
The Huskies were aggressive, unlocking talented playmakers and trusting their offensive line to keep things clean as Penix attacked down the field.
Tice believes that "chunk-play-first-and-always mindset" will fit the modus operandi of Seahawks starting quarterback Geno Smith, who has always been willing to stand tall in the pocket and test downfield windows that others wouldn't dare.
Do We Have Certainty Under Center?
Smith made the Pro Bowl and won NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2022 in his first season as Seattle's full-time starter after spending most of the previous seven seasons as a backup. He threw an NFL-record seven go-ahead touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and overtime in 2023.
But his numbers dipped across the board this past season, including 10 fewer touchdown passes (he also threw two fewer interceptions).
The Seahawks restructured Smith's contract the last week of February. As a result, Smith's cap hit this season fell from $31.2 million to $26.4 million. His 2025 cap hit escalates to $38.5 million, however.
Meanwhile, the team acquired quarterback Sam Howell in a trade with the Commanders in March.
The trade for Howell, who started for Washington last season, solidifies the Seahawks' quarterback depth after Drew Lock agreed to sign with the New York Giants in free agency.
Henderson is among those who believe it could also mean competition for Smith for the No. 1 job.
Howell started all 17 games this past season, throwing an NFL-high 612 passes. He finished with the 12th most yards in the NFL with 3,946. He also threw 21 touchdowns and 21 interceptions and was sacked an NFL-high 65 times.
From a fantasy perspective, Howell was serviceable -- at times.
Wiggle Room
During an interview the week before landing Howell, Macdonald was asked whether Smith would be the starter again this year, and the first-year coach declined to give a definitive answer.
Instead, Macdonald said he wants Smith to work with Grubb and quarterbacks coach Charles London in offseason sessions. Rather than make declarations early in the offseason, Macdonald will let it play out.
"I don't want you to feel like I'm dodging this answer, but that's what I'm excited about, for him to come in here and start to build this team the way we envision building it," Macdonald said. "And the only way to do that is to go work with it. That's what I'm focused on, man."
So, as SI.com's Daniel Chavkin notes, even with the team-friendlier contract, a new coaching staff means a new group of people will decide Smith's fate.
"For now," Chavkin added, "Smith is the top quarterback on the depth chart, but there is a while before the season begins in September."
Also for now, Smith sits at QB23 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings.
Those who value a more secure grip on the starting assignment could go with Will Levis (QB25), Derek Carr (QB26), or even Bryce Young (QB27). I might even include Broncos rookie Bo Nix (QB28) in that group.
Still, drafting Smith as a tail-end QB2 based on the supporting cast alone -- Metcalf, Lockett, Smith-Njigba, and running backs Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet -- is reasonable.
Until it's not . . .
Sorting Out The Receiving Corps
Lockett agreed to a restructured contract in March, lowering his cap number for 2024. This likely ensures the team's second-all-time leading receiver remains in Seattle for at least another season.
Since entering the league, Lockett has been one of the NFL's more consistent players. Now entering his age-32 season, the former third-round pick has slowed but is still a productive part of Seattle's passing attack.
Lockett caught 79 passes for 894 yards and five touchdowns last season, snapping a streak of four straight 1,000-yard seasons and five consecutive seasons with at least eight touchdowns. The former third-round pick has 612 career receptions for 7,994 yards. Both figures rank second in franchise history behind Hall of Famer Steve Largent.
Should Lockett's return temper our enthusiasm about Smith-Njigba's chances of locking in a more robust role in his second season as a pro?
Smith-Njigba showed flashes of his first-round talent in his rookie season under Waldron, but he lacked the consistency desired at the NFL level.
While that isn't unusual for players in their first season, Smith-Njigba caught 63 passes for 628 yards and four touchdowns (ranked third in each stat among all the Seahawks), as he was often an outlet for Smith. The youngster also had two game-winning touchdown grabs.
Nevertheless, Smith-Njigba managed four or more receptions in a game just six times, with his highest return yards-wise being 63 against the Ravens in a 37-3 loss.
But now, with Grubb's history of airing out the football, SI.com's Adam Schultz believes Smith-Njigba could be on the verge of a second-year leap.
For now, however, you'll find Lockett (WR38) one spot ahead of Smith-Njigba (WR39) on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. For perspective, Metcalf is WR22.
However, those drafting in ongoing best balls will find the market is down on Lockett.
Metcalf and Smith-Njigba's current Average Draft Positions (ADPs) on Underdog and BestBall 10s align with our rankings.
Lockett, however, is WR52 on both sites and available well into the double-digit rounds on BestBall 10s . . .
Status Quo At RB
According to Seattle Times staffer Bob Condotta, this "offseason of upheaval appears to have at least one certainty: The running back position."
Condotta advised readers we can probably set in stone that Walker and Charbonnet will lead Seattle's running back corps in 2024 and that Kenny McIntosh will likely factor in somewhere, too.
While Walker and Charbonnet give the offense two starting-level assets, Seattle didn't get the rushing attack it hoped to have last season. The Seahawks averaged 4.1 yards per carry, 16th in the NFL, a year after averaging 4.8, which had ranked seventh.
A weak offensive line was a factor in that, and our own Matt Bitonti's Footballguys Offensive Line Rankings aren't much higher on them heading into 2024. Veteran free agent guard Laken Tomlinson was the most notable addition this offseason.
Walker is currently RB18 on our rankings, and Charbonnet is RB39. Both are available at near those prices in current best balls . . .
While we're all expecting -- or at least wishcasting -- a pass-heavy attack, Macdonald has stressed the importance of the running game, and Grubb agrees, despite the gaudy passing number outlined above. Grubb also talked about the importance of running a well-rounded offense.
"I think that when you have an established run game, it makes calling those other plays, the auxiliary plays off of it a lot easier," Grubb said. He added the play-action passing game is a factor in the explosive plays his teams have generated, which should translate well to the NFL.
Goff Grabs His Bag
The Lions signed quarterback Jared Goff to a four-year, $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed.
The deal makes the 2016 No. 1 pick the highest-paid player in franchise history.
The $53 million average annual salary in Goff's new deal makes him the second-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, behind only the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow ($55 million).
Detroit has now rewarded three of its star players this offseason with over $444 million in contract extensions to Goff, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. St. Brown received a four-year, $120.01 million deal, and Sewell signed for $112 million over four years.
Goff, 29, has flourished in the three seasons since the trade that brought him to Detroit and sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams.
Over the past two seasons, Goff has helped the Lions win 21 games, a franchise record for most victories in any two-season span.
Their 12 wins in 2023 also tied the franchise record for most wins in a season, set in 1991.
During the two most recent campaigns, Goff ranked among the top four in the NFL in several categories, including passing yards with 9,013 (second), passing TDs with 59 (tied for third), touchdown-to-interception ratio (3.1), which ranks second, and first-down rate (38 percent), which ranks fourth.
Over all three of his seasons in Detroit, Goff has passed for 12,258 yards and 78 touchdowns with just 27 interceptions.
But fantasy managers are aware of the drawback here . . .
The Issue
Goff's home/road splits are lopsided.
Fantasy Points Scott Barrett laid it out nicely when he noted Goff has played 17 home games and 17 away games over the last two seasons.
He's produced 44 total touchdowns and 21.5 fantasy points per game at home. On the road, Goff has 17 total touchdowns and 13.3 fantasy points per game.
At home, he's QB4. On the road, he's been QB38.
We call that significant.
And it's why, despite his QB7 finish in 2023, Goff remains a value in drafts so far this year.
You'll currently find him as QB16 on the 2024 Footballguys Draft Rankings. That's also his ADP in ongoing best-ball drafts on Underdog.
He's not without upside at that price -- at least half the time . . .
Gibbs About To Get Busier
The Lions have one of the best one-two punches at running back in the league with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and almost 2,400 scrimmage yards last season.
Montgomery started his first campaign with the Lions as the clear lead back in the offense, but things evened out as the season went on and Gibbs proved to be one of the more exciting young players in the NFL.
Looking ahead to 2024, general manager Brad Holmes said recently on the Rich Eisen Show that Gibbs' workload will increase.
"I definitely would expect (Gibbs) to see more of a load, but Montgomery will still be here, too," Holmes said. "Dan [Campbell] and I love that one-two punch of him and David . . . I think he's got much more to offer in the passing game, so most likely, you'll see an increase in that, as well."
Holmes went into detail about how Gibbs needed to slow down a bit early on in his rookie season to let the game come to him more, something the Alabama product admitted to.
The Sporting News' Mike Moraitis reminded readers that drafting Gibbs in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft was widely questioned. Not only was the No. 12 pick very early to take a running back, but the Lions had just signed Montgomery the month before.
But the questions were answered during Gibbs' electric first season, where he tallied 1,261 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns.
Fantasy managers currently investing RB4-level draft capital (which happens to mirror our ranking for Gibbs) to secure his services in early best balls certainly won't mind seeing more of him in 2024.
By the way, in his comprehensive Dynasty Running Backs and Tiers overview, Footballguy Dave Kluge includes Gibbs with Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson on his list of "Blue Chip" players when it comes to long-term outlook . . .
Best Shape Of His Career SZN Is Here
Following up on an item in last week's Fantasy Notebook, the "Best Shape of his Career" season officially opened when we learned Najee Harris has made significant changes this offseason.
Pittsburgh's decision to decline Harris' fifth-year option, making 2024 the running back's contract year, was a factor.
"He's motivated, to say the least," Harris' trainer, Josh Scott, told Brian Batko of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
Scott estimated that Harris, listed at 242 pounds, dropped to around 235. The trainer called his client "extremely clean -- almost obsessively clean -- with his diet," which aided the weight drop.
Expect to hear about more players changing their bodies as training camps draw nearer.
Footballguy Sigmund Bloom noted that it sometimes works out great, and production is high. Other times, players don't play well with their new look.
We'll see how it shakes out for Harris, but don't be surprised if the Steelers help his cause by trying to run the wheels off him . . .
Rodgers Ready . . . To Call Plays?
Aaron Rodgers will be ready to go when the New York Jets begin OTA practices on May 20.
The four-time MVP, eight months removed from surgery to repair a torn left Achilles, will have "no restrictions," according to head coach Robert Saleh.
That will apparently include unrestricted ability to adjust play calls.
SNY. tv's Connor Hughes reports the Jets made legitimate attempts this offseason to hire someone who would, essentially, replace offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.
Not as a new offensive coordinator, but a title above who would run the show.
According to Hughes, it almost feels like the Jets, coming up short in their effort to bypass the play-caller, will now count on Rodgers' ability to correct Hackett's wrongdoings.
Hughes added that sources often spoke of Hackett calling a play last summer, but then Rodgers changed it completely at the line.
Team officials figure he can do the same come the regular season.
Fantasy managers don't have high expectations for Rodgers (he's our QB18). But players like Hall and Garrett Wilson, for whom we're paying a premium in fantasy drafts, will be leaning on the veteran as more than just their quarterback . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. I appreciate your time and attention.
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Get the content you want from people you know and trust.
I'm off this coming week, so check back in two weeks when we'll continue taking big-picture looks at situations of fantasy interest.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard and get all his Footballguys articles here. Listen to him every Saturday at 3 pm ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's "The Football Diehards" show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
