Broncos +215 @ Buccaneers -265
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 41 Spread: 6
Fantasy Game Points
The one thing that’s actually working in Denver is Patrick Surtain II, who has been an absolute shutdown shadow corner. The real question is whether he’s Chris Godwin or Mike Evans’s shadow. My vote is the latter, and I’d put my money on it being business as usual for the Slot God. Baker should still be comfortably started, and the Buccaneers RBs have a favorable matchup. So if Rachaad White does something, I still might sell high if possible with Bucky Irving. However, the team hasn’t seemed to care about White’s poor efficiency with his snap share firmly at 71%
Bo Nix is 11-of-36 for 212 and 4 picks on passes more than five (!) yards downfield.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 16, 2024
His 30.6% completion rate on such passes is the lowest in the league by six percent AND the worst figure in Weeks 1 and 2 in the last 10 years. https://t.co/R55kLFOomT
Don’t even bother with the Broncos until we see something.
Chris Godwin leads the league in receiving EPA at +19.4.
Courland Sutton is the worst with -13.9.
Jalen McMillan still shares an even split as a top-three wideout with Godwin and Evans.
He still hasn’t eclipsed three targets in a game. (I’m still holding.)
Rachaad has the second-worst RYOE/ATT with -1.8
Bo Nix is only second to Bryce Young in EPA (-35.8)
Key Starts
Baker Mayfield QB, Buccaneers
Chris Godwin WR, Buccaneers
Key Sits
Every single Bronco
Boom Bust Flex
Bucky Iriving
Injury Report
Healthy
Rachaad White RB, Buccaneers
Devaughn Vele WR, Broncos
Josh Reynolds WR, Broncos
Greg Dulcich TE, Broncos
Jael Dean CB, Buccaneers
Antoine Winfield Jr FS, Buccaneers
OUT
Baron Browning OLB, Broncos
Calijah Kancey DE, Buccaneers
Doubtful
Vita Vea DT, Buccaneers
Questionable
Kuke Goedeke RT, Buccaneers
Logan Hall DE, Buccaneers
Zach Allen DE, Broncos
John Franklin-Myers DE, Broncos
Brandon Jones FS, Broncos
Chargers +130 @ Steelers -155
Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 34.5 Spread: 3
Fantasy Game Points
Expect every Steelers matchup that isn’t against a Top 5 offense on the other side of the field to have less than 40 expected point. But maybe Justin Fields and George Pickens can start to connect on all those air yards sooner rather than later.
George Pickens with a 2-29-0 dud in the box score but:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 16, 2024
-51 yard catch over Pat Surtain nullified on a hold
-6 yard TD nullified on OPI by Van Jefferson
-Drew a 37 yard DPI on Surtain pic.twitter.com/tOgvX2zRrp
The Steelers clearly aren’t in a hurry to bring back Russell Wilson and I’m not convinced he gets his job back if the box score can reflect the tape. I’m rolling out Fields one more week even despite a “tough” matchup. The Chargers have played soft teams (Raiders, Panthers) that have allowed them to control time of possession on the ground, while Bryce Young has helped their defensive passing totals.
This might be the week JK Dobbins's efficiency takes a hit as the Steelers are a Top 10 tough rushing matchup according to Devin Knotts. I have zero interest in starting another Chargers player since the passing offense has been low volume in even gamescripts. Even despite Quentin Johnston’s pop.
The Steelers and Chargers have the second and third lowest pass rate in the NFL respectively.
Chargers LT Joe Alt has a major test against T.J Watt who has lined up against the LT 93% of snaps.
Key Sits
Justin Herbert QB, Chargers
Ladd McConkey WR, Chargers
Quentin Johnston WR, Chargers
Injury Report
Healthy
Roman Wilson WR, Steelers
Joey Bosa EDGE, Chargers
OUT
NA
Doubtful
Russell Wilson QB, Steelers
Questionable
Justin Herbert QB, Chargers
Joshua Palmer WR, Chargers
Ja’Sir Taylor SCB, Chargers
Alohi Gilman FS, Chargers
Isaac Seumalo LG, Steelers
Giants +230 @ Browns -285
Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 38 Spread: 6.5
Fantasy Game Points
Malik Nabers finally broke out after the panic of Week 1 however, a tough matchup against the Browns who have the 9th-best pressure rates against QBs and 10th in passing yards per play. You’re starting Malik Nabers, but don’t be surprised to see the team struggle if Myles Garrett is a problem. However, Nabers is a big-play merchant and the Cleveland secondary has holes.
The Browns have an easy rushing matchup but don’t underestimate the Giants passing defense who are top 10 in pressure rate. I feel much more bullish on the ugly RB rotation of Ford and Foreman than the passing offense.
D’Onta Foreman led in carries in Week 2 after a jump to 38% snap share
Malik Nabers led the team with a whopping 18 targets in Week 2 after being surpassed by Wan’Dale Robinson in Week 1
Deshaun Watson has the 5th worst EPA in the league
Amari Cooper has the worst Catching Rate Over Expected (-27.3%)
Shaky Start
Jerome Ford RB, Browns
Boom Bust Flex
D’Onta Foreman RB, Browns
Injury Report
Healthy
Myles Garrett DE, Browns
OUT
David Njoku TE, Browns
Doubtful
- NA
Questionable
Brian Burns EDGE, Giants
Kayvon Thibodeaux EDGE, Giants
Nick McCloud CB, Giants
Jedrick Willis LT, Browns
Za’Darius Smith DE, Browns
Denzel Ward CB, Browns
Eagles +124 @ Saints -148
Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 49.5 Spread: 3
Fantasy Game Points
How about them Saints, right? Klint Kubiak will be the newest “Kyle Shanahan Coaching Tree” darling to be offered the keys to a castle after fixing the Saints’ offense. I don’t think this is a fluke considering the talent the Saints had, including Carr. They just needed a scheme that included more than slants and low depth of target passes to Kamara. Moreover, the Eagles are still struggling against the passing game and Vegas knows that with a generous 49.5 expected points with the Saints favored by 2.5 points.
The Eagles are still a disappointment from a wins perspective, but still producing for fantasy managers. However, the Saints have always had a domineering defense and the offense has only been a bigger boost. We’re firing all assets regardless of matchup, but don’t panic over an Eagles’ dip in production
Derek Carr is Top 2 in every major efficiency category including EPA, YPA, and Completions Percentage Over Expected.
Rashid Shaheed is WR2 in Yards Per Reception 4th in Air Yards Per Target.
Alvin Kamara is second in rushing EPA despite seeing the 4th highest stacked box rate.
Saquon Barkley is 5th in YAC
Key Start
Everyone
Injury Report
Healthy
Taliese Fuaga LT, Saints
Marshon Lattimore CB, Saints
A.J. Brown WR, Eagles
OUT
- NA
Doubtful
- NA
Questionable
Taysome Hill TE, Saints
C.J. Gardner-Johnson S, Eagles
Khalen Saunders DT, Saints
Tyrann Mathieu FS, Saints
Texans -122 @ Vikings +102
Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 46 Spread: 1.5
Fantasy Game Points
Sam Darnold looks like 2024’s Geno Smith and I’m here for it. It’s hard to look at Adam Gase and the current state of the Panthers and think “Yeah, Sam Darnold was 100% of the problem.” But I’ll digress and end the rant by saying that if Justin Jefferson is healthy, you play him. If Addison is healthy (not this game) you’re playing him. However, the Texans have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL going against a decent offensive line. Vegas expects modest points in a game with two high-powered offenses, so I’m trusting my studs.
The Texans have two banged-up RBs, so Cam Akers is looking like a quality spot start
The Vikings have the 4th highest Blitz percentage.
C.J. Stroud has the 3rd best completion percentage against blitzes
Key Starts
Justin Jefferson WR, Vikings (duh, just want to remind you he’s good)
Boom Bust Flex
Jalen Nailor WR, Vikings
Cam Akers RB, Texans
Injury Report
Healthy
Dalton Schultz TE, Texans
Nico Collins WR, Texans
OUT
Dameon Pierce RB, Texans
Brevin Jordan TE, Texans
Jordan Addison WR, Vikings
Doubtful
Joe Mixon RB, Texans
Questionable
Aaron Jones RB, Vikings
Justin Jefferson WR, Vikings
Dalton Schultz TE, Texans
Juice Scruggs C, Texans
Folorunso Fatukasi DT, Texans
Azeez Al-Shaair OLB, Texans
Garrett Bradbury C, Vikings
Brian O’Neill RT, Vikings
Andrew Van Ginkel ILB, Vikings
Ivan Pace Jr. ILB, Vikings
Packers +124 @ Titans -148
Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 38.5 Spread: 3
Fantasy Game Points
Jordan Love seems to be on track to play on Sunday.
Jordan Love is practicing. Third straight day. He’ll surely be limited, but got to think he’s on track to playing Sunday against Titans after practicing through the week. pic.twitter.com/tEAL5ozpAt
— Ryan Wood (@ByRyanWood) September 20, 2024
This is an obvious boost to the Packers against a weak Titans team. This is why I’ll focus these blurbs on them. You have to sit the entire passing game until further notice. The Titans still have the worst pressure rate in the league even after a TNF game where the Patriots let Jacoby Brissett act as a sacrificial lamb. Will Levis is getting justifiably chewed out on the sideline after making absolutely terrible decisions. I’ll admit that I bought into Levis as a player, but the offensive line and slow start are giving me reasons to regret that decision.
Will Levis has the 4th worst EPA, but 4th highest Completions Over Expected
Tony Pollard is dominating the snap share with back-to-back snap percentages of 61 and 67%
Romeo Doubs leads all Packers WRs in snaps by a wide margin
DeAndre Hopkins only has 3 targets this season.
Key Start
Aaron Jones RB, Vikings
Key Sits
The Titans Passing Offense
Boom Bust Flex
Romeo Doubs WR, Packers
Injury Report
Healthy
Elgton Jenkins LG, Packers
Jayden Reed WR, Packers
OUT
MarShawn Lloyd RB, Packers
Doubtful
- NA
Questionable
Jordan Love QB, Packers
Josh Jacobs RB, Packers
Tucker Kraft TE, Packers
Rasheed Walker LT, Packers
Josh Myers C, Packers
Zach Tom RT, Packers
Kenny Clark DT, Packers
Bears +108 @ Colts -112
Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 43.5 Spread: 1
Fantasy Game Points
We have to take the good with the bad with Anthony Richardson at this stage, and the last game was bad. I don’t think it’ll be better against the Bears' top 5 defense in EPA per play and pressure rate. Moreover, Michael Pittman Jr is struggling with an injury all while just struggling in general and is featured in Dave Kluge’s ‘3 Up, 3 Down’ article. He’s not one of the 3 up.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams and the Bears have had a rough start, but have a juicy matchup against a soft and buttery Colts defense allowing the second most yards to offenses. I have confidence we see a bit more from the highly anticipated new-look Bears this week.
The Colts are giving up the 5th most rushing yards per play
Michael Pittman Jr has the 9th worst Catch %.
Key Start
Caleb Williams QB, Bears
D’Andre Swift RB, Bears
Key Sit
Anthony Richardson QB, Colts (unless Superflex)
Michael Pittman Jr WR, Colts
Boom or Bust Flex
Khalil Herbert RB, Bears
Injury Report
Healthy
Rome Odunze WR, Bears
Josh Downs WR, Colts
Teven Jenkins LG, Bears
OUT
DeForest Buckner DE, Colts
Keenan Allen WR, Bears
Doubtful
- NA
Questionable
Nate Davis RG, Bears
Montez Sweat DE, Bears
DeMarcus Walker DE, Bears
Andrew Billings DT, BEars
Panthers +205 @ Raiders -250
Sunday, 2:05 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 40 Spread: 6
Fantasy Game Points
It’s a new QB era in the Panthers and I still feel terrible for the folks forced to watch this game due to regional television restrictions.
Panthers’ QB Andy Dalton is now expected to start Sunday at Seattle. pic.twitter.com/5wFJXIa0T4
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 21, 2023
The Panthers have a terrible defense which should mean good things for Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, and whatever Raiders RB falls into the endzone. The biggest question is if Andy Dalton means good things for the Panthers. I’d spot-start Dalton and Diontae Johnson in desperate Superflex situations. Sigmund Bloom currently has Dalton listed as one of his QB sleepers.
Key Start
Davante Adams WR, Raiders
Brock Bowers TE, Raiders
Boom Bust Flex
Diontae Johnson WR, Panthers
Zamir White RB, Raiders
Alexander Mattison RB, Raiders
Injury Report
Healthy
- NA
OUT
- NA
Doubtful
- NA
Questionable
Tommy Tremble TE, Panthers
Damien Lewis LG, Panthers
Robert Hunt RG, Panthers
A’Shawn Robinson DE, Panthers
Shy Tuttle DT, Panthers
Kolton Miller LT, Raiders
Maxx Crosby DE, Raiders
Christian Wilkins DT, Raiders
Divine Deable LB, Raiders
Dolphins +185 @ Seahawks -225
Sunday, 2:05 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 42 Spread: 4.5
Fantasy Game Points
Tua Tagovailoa is very down, but probably not out.
From @NFLGameDay: #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has no plans to retire, sources say. He’s already begun seeing concussion specialists and will continue to do so, but there is no timeline to return. Tua will be back when he and his doctors deem him healthy and ready. pic.twitter.com/Cc6aQI8HcZ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 15, 2024
Tua’s replacement is Skylar Thompson, a player that the coaching staff truly believes in but leaves a lot to be desired as an individual start. I’m willing to trust Mike McDaniel and the talented pieces enough to start them with the confidence that they’ll win with game-breaking speed.
The Seahawks look as good as they ever have in Ryan Grubbs’ new scheme and Miami presents a juicy matchup. Jalen Ramsay looks to be cooked as the kids say, and DK Metcalf has learned how to finesse all that size and speed. Furthermore, we seem to have seen a Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout. I’m starting every Seahawk, even Charbonnet, in this one.
Miami’s defense is allowing the 4th highest EPA per pass.
Geno Smith is ranked 8th in QB rating and 4th in completion percentage
Zach Charbonnet has the 3rd worst YPC at 2.3
Key Start
DK Metcalf WR, Seahawks
Spot Start
Zach Charbonnet RB, Seattle
Boom Bust Flex
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, Seahawks
Injury Report
Healthy
Jeff Wilson Jr.. RB, Miami
Terron Armstead LT, Miami
OUT
Tua Tagoivailoa QB, Miami
Uchenna Nwosu OLB, Seahawks
Doubtful
Raheem Mostert RB, Miami
George Fant RT, Seahawks
Jerome Baker ILB, Seahawks
Questionable
DK Metcalf WR, Seahawks
Tyler Lockett WR, Seahawks
Ken Walker III WR, Seahawks
Noah Fant TE, Seahawks
Leonard Williams DE, Seahawks
Boye Mafe OLB, Seahawks
Devon Witherspoon SCB, Seahawks
Robert Jones LG, Miami
Jaelan Edge, Miami
49ers -290 @ Rams +235
Sunday, 2:25 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 43 Spread: 6.5
Fantasy Game Points
This could be the Brandon Aiyuk comeback game we’ve expected.
Spoilers: Brandon Aiyuk is a BUY LOW and that window to trade for him will likely close after this week. https://t.co/7KmNgArEOn
— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) September 18, 2024
The Rams already suffered major losses on defense during the offseason, but couple that with injuries on both sides of the ball, and this team’s season might be over before it began. Stafford has lost both of his top targets and half of his offensive line, so I wouldn’t be in a hurry to trot out Jordan Whittington or Tyler Johnson unless you’re desperate. However, Jordan Mason and Brandon Aiyuk are ranked highly for me on the week.
The Rams and 49ers are giving up the 9th and 10th worst passing YPG respectively.
The Rams are giving up the highest EPA per play.
Kyren Williams has the 7th worst Rushing Yards Over Expected
He has the 6th worst YPC (2.5)
Key Start
Jordan Mason RB, 49ers
Brandon Aiyuk WR, 49ers
Boom Bust Flex
Jordan Whittington WR, Rams
Tyler Johnson WR, Rams
Key Sit
Matthew Stafford QB, Rams
Injury Report
Healthy
Talanoa Hufanga SS, 49ers
OUT
Deebo Samuel Sr. WR, 49ers
Cooper Kupp WR, Rams
Jonah Jackson G, Rams
Joe Noteboom T, Rams
Doubtful
Johnny Johnson III III FS, Rams
Jonah Jackson
George Kittle TE, 49ers
Questionable
Charvarius Ward CB, 49ers
Nick Bosa EDGE, 49ers
Kevin Dotson RG, Rams
Cobie Durant CB, Rams
Lions -148 @ Cardinals +124
Sunday, 2:25 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 51.5 Spread: 3
Fantasy Game Points
Once again, the Lions are in a matchup with the most expected points. This is the juiciest matchup all week and we’re firing on all cylinders.
The Lions have the second-highest yards per game
Jahmyr Gibbs is 6th in rushing EPA
David Montgomery is 4th
Kyler Murray is the leader in Passing EPA and 4th in QBR
Marvin Harrison Jr.. is 1st in yards per reception.
Key Start
Yes
Key Sit
Don’t
Injury Report
Healthy
Graham Glasgow LG, Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR, Lions
OUT
- NA
Questionable
Alex Azalone MLB, Lions
Terrion Arnold CB, Lions
Kerby Joseph FS, Lions
Ravens -115 @ Cowboys -105
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 47.5 Spread: 1
Fantasy Game Points
I have serious concerns with the Ravens' defense who can’t defend the pass, especially when they’re going up against a pass-happy team like the Cowboys. This doesn’t mean I’m concerned about the Lamar Jackson lead offense. In fact, this just makes me love the neutral or negative game scripts all season for everyone but Derrick Henry.
The Cowboys have a tough defense, but the offense will struggle if they ever need to run the football. The one thing the Ravens do well against on defense. The correct answer to the Cowboys' RB situation was neither, and especially not Dowdle.
The Ravens’ defense is the best against the run with 49.5 yards per game and 2.7 yards per rush.
Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle have 40% and 43% snap share respectively.
As well as the 11th and 14th worst YPC.
Justice Hill leads the Ravens RBs in snaps
Zay Flowers is 5th in targets.
Key Start
Zay Flowers WR, Ravens
Mark Andrews TE, Ravens
Key Sit
Ezekiel Elliot RB, Cowboys
Rico Dowdle RB, Cowboys
Boom Bust Flex
Justice Hill RB, Ravens
Injury Report
Healthy
CeeDee Lamb WR, Cowboys
Jake Ferguson TE, Cowboys
Kyle Hamilton SS, Ravens
Trevon Diggs CB, Cowboys
Doubtful
- NA
OUT
Arthur Maulet SCB, Ravens
Jordan Phillips S, Cowboys
Questionable
Mazi Smith DT, Cowboys
Malik Hooker FS, Cowboys
Ronnie Stanley LT, Ravens
Kyle Van Noy OLB, Ravens
Chiefs -162 @ Falcons +136
Sunday, 6:20 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 46.5 Spread: 3
Fantasy Game Points
Kirk looked much better than the statue we watched in Week 1 but has a tougher matchup against the Chiefs' underrated defense. Keep in mind that there is a real argument that the Falcons have a better defense, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game hits the unders. Drake London had a late start, but so did Kirk. So this is another chalky game where I’ll start my studs.
Darnell Mooney has the 3rd worst catch rate.
Kirk Cousins uses Play Action rate jumped from 0% to 25% from Week 1 to Week 2.
Xavier Worthy is 13th in Deep target rate (28.6)
Injury Report
Healthy
Tyler Allgeier RB, Falcons
OUT
Isiah Pacheco RB, Chiefs
Questionable
- NA
Jaguars +190 @ Bills -230
Monday, 7:30 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 45.5 Spread: 5
Fantasy Game Points
When will we see the best of Trevor Lawrence? I’m unsure if the Bills are the “get right” game. However, Brian Thomas Jr. has been a welcome addition to the offense that gives me hope that they’ll soon start connecting on more deep targets in the future (fingers crossed.) Christian Kirk is statistically one of the worst performers of the season and can arguably be dropped if this trend continues after this week.
The Bills passing offense is a bit of a mystery with their TNF football game being an outlier with a major injury and positive game script, but Dalton Kincaid is quite the disappointment so far. However, Josh Allen is still playing elite football, and the running game has been a major boost, so I expect to see this change against a Jags defense that is struggling worse than the offense.
Brian Thomas Jr. is 9th in Air Yards Per Target and 12th in receiver EPA.
Travis Etienne Jr. has the 3rd worst rushing EPA.
Josh Allen is 5th in completion percentage
Khalil Shakir leads the Bills in targets
Key Start
James Cook RB, Bills
Key Sit
Christian Kirk WR, Jaguars
Injury Report
Healthy
- NA
OUT
Terrel Bernard MLB, Bills
Taron Johnson SCB, Bills
- Evan Engram TE, Jaguar
Doubtful
NA
Questionable
Tank Bigsby RB, Jaguars
Commanders +280 @ Bengals -355
Monday, 8:15 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 47 Spread: 7.5
Fantasy Game Points
The Commanders are the ultimate test to the question “Is Ja’Marr Chase still good?” Because we should be concerned if he can’t do it at home against one of the worst teams in football. The only thing working in Washington is Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr. and I’m willing to roll them out every week regardless of matchup. Even despite the Kliff Kingsbury-shaped weight on the offense’s ankle.
All of these complaints could be applied to the Bengals offense who are on the wrong half of the league passing YPG list with such a talented roster. It helps that Tee Higgins seems to be making his return. I’m still concerned this defense will be gashed in the rushing game with the injuries to the DL.
Tee Higgins talking for the first time since September 5th...plans to play on Monday night. He felt ready to go last week, as advised with hamstrings - gave it another week.
— Olivia Ray (@OliviaRayTV) September 20, 2024
Higgins begins by explaining what happened the day he tweaked the hamstring ?? #Bengals | @WLWT pic.twitter.com/UoegIiJGvl
Jayden Daniels still posted 14 fantasy points despite not throwing a TD.
He’s also 6th in EPA.
Brian Robinson Jr is 4th in Rushing Yards Over Expected.
The Bengals are giving up the 7th most rushing yards per game.
Key Start
Brian Robinson Jr. RB, Commanders
Jayden Daniels QB, Commanders
The Bengals Passing offense
Key Sit
Terry McLaurin WR, Commanders
Injury Report
Healthy
Tee Higgins WR, Bengals
OUT
- NA
Questionable
Sheldon Rankings DT, Bengals
BJ Hill DT, Bengals