I'm what you might call a "fantasy football addict." I've already done over 300 fantasy football drafts. And no, not mock drafts. Real drafts against real people for real money. A lot of those drafts have taken place on Underdog Fantasy, where I don't have to worry about in-season roster management. Others have been hosted on Sleeper. But I've been drafting since spring and have found pockets in drafts to go after different positions.
Every site will have its quirks regarding ADP (average draft position), but there are similarities across every platform. Valuable running backs are pushed deep down draft boards. The wide receiver well dries up quickly. The tier of elite tight ends is deeper than ever. And it's a great year to wait on a quarterback.
In this article, I'll explain what I've learned, who I'm targeting, and strategies for implementing them in your drafts.
Round 1
If you've got a top-4 pick this year, you want one of these players.
- Christian McCaffrey
- CeeDee Lamb
- Tyreek Hill
- Ja'Marr Chase
Picks 5-9 are easy, too.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown
- AJ Brown
- Justin Jefferson
- Breece Hall
- Bijan Robinson
That's how I've ranked them. If you strongly believe in one player over another, take a stance. They're all close in value. This top nine is relatively safe. Every player here should provide a reasonably high floor and have the ceiling to finish first overall at their position.
But picking in the top four this year gives a sizable advantage for multiple reasons.
- You're guaranteed an elite early pick.
- Round 2 is flat, meaning early Round 2 picks aren't much better than late Round 2 picks.
- There's a big tier falloff in the middle of Round 3.
So not only are you getting an elite player in the first round, but you're also getting similar value in Round 2 and getting an advantage in Round 3. However, it's worth mentioning that this was a common idea last year as well, and drafting CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown at the 1/2 turn ended up being one of the best starts you could have had.
If you're picking at 1.10 or beyond, I'm sorry. You're absorbing more risk than those who picked 1-9, but that doesn't mean you can't still build a good team!
Players to target at the 1/2 turn.
- Puka Nacua
- Garrett Wilson
- TIER BREAK
- Jonathan Taylor
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- TIER BREAK
- Nico Collins
- Jaylen Waddle
I like to walk away with at least one wide receiver from the 1/2 turn. Double-tapping Taylor and Gibbs may be alluring, but you'll quickly find yourself chasing WR value and missing out on great mid-round running back targets. I prefer a WR/WR start, but a WR/RB start can work. I would just avoid falling for the RB/RB trap.
Rounds 2-3
If you're drafting in the mid-to-late 2nd, you'll notice some very good value falling to the 2/3 turn.
- De'Von Achane
- Saquon Barkley
- Deebo Samuel
- TIER BREAK
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Cooper Kupp
- TIER BREAK
- Travis Etienne
- Derrick Henry
- Mike Evans
- Drake London
- TIER BREAK
- DK Metcalf
- DJ Moore
- DeVonta Smith
Every draft is different, and there's no guarantee these guys will go where we expect them to. I've seen drafters reach for Achane and Barkley in the first round. But beyond the first round, these are the players I'm targeting with my next two picks.
I try to finish Round 3 with three of the players listed above.
Based on ADP, I typically avoid these early-round players. I don't dislike these players, but their price tags are a bit too high for me.
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris Olave
- Davante Adams
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Stefon Diggs
- Kyren Williams
- James Cook
- Sam LaPorta
- Josh Allen
- Jalen Hurts
Rounds 4-8
Who I pick in Rounds 4-8 is typically dictated by who I drafted in Rounds 1-3.
My build preferences ranked:
- 2WR/1RB
- 3WR/0RB
- 1WR/2RB
- 0WR/3RB
There is so much running back value late in drafts that I don't like investing too much early-round draft capital in the position. I want to spend two or three of my first three picks on wide receiver.
Rounds 4-8 used to be the dreaded RUNNING BACK DEAD ZONE. But with the way running back value has fallen in the recent market, these rounds are full of talented players who project for big workloads.
Assuming I have a receiver-heavy build, I hammer running backs in these rounds.
Every site's ADP is a bit different, but these are the guys I'm primarily targeting in Rounds 4-8.
- Isiah Pacheco
- Josh Jacobs
- Ken Walker III
- TIER BREAK
- Joe Mixon
- Alvin Kamara
- TIER BREAK
- David Montgomery
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Najee Harris
- Jaylen Warren
- TIER BREAK
- Javonte Williams
- Brian Robinson Jr.
- Zamir White
- Tony Pollard
- Tyjae Spears
And while I want to prioritize running backs here, there are some very good wide receiver values to sprinkle in as well.
- Amari Cooper
- Tee Higgins
- Rashee Rice
- TIER BREAK
- Tank Dell
- Zay Flowers
- TIER BREAK
- Marquise Brown
- Diontae Johnson
- Chris Godwin
- TIER BREAK
- Terry McLaurin
- George Pickens
Outside of mentioning LaPorta, Allen, and Hurts as early-round fades, I haven't discussed quarterback or tight end yet. Both positions are deep this year. There's one rule I try my best to adhere to in every draft this year: Do not be the first person to draft a quarterback or tight end! I'm trying to catch these onesie players at the end of tiers.
Instead of paying up for Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts, wait for Lamar Jackson. Instead of paying up for Patrick Mahomes II or CJ Stroud, wait for Joe Burrow or Dak Prescott. Some quarterbacks project for similar fantasy production; you can draft the cheaper one a round or two later than your leaguemates.
While I won't mind drafting the quarterbacks listed above if the draft works out that way, I am locked in on three targets.
- Anthony Richardson
- Kyler Murray
- Jayden Daniels
These quarterbacks all have elite rushing output that provides them with very high ceilings. You could be drafting the potential QB1 at a huge discount.
In the same vein as quarterback, I'm trying to catch falling tight ends in the high-end tiers. The tight end landscape has changed dramatically in recent years. Travis Kelce and George Kittle are aging. We've seen players break out (Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Evan Engram). An influx of young talent has saturated the market (Kyle Pitts, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid). There's no reason to pay up this year.
LaPorta is the shiny new toy, but you can expect similar production from Kelce or Andrews at a cheaper cost. Kincaid and McBride will be good, no doubt. But I'd rather take Kittle, Pitts, or Engram for cheaper.
Coming out of Round 8, you should have a filled-out roster.
- 1 QB (maybe)
- 2-4 RBs
- 3-5 WRs
- 1 TE (hopefully)
If there's one position I'm okay completely punting, it's quarterback. But I want to make sure I get at least one of the top eight tight ends, preferably the ones who slide to a good value.
Rounds 9+
As we approach the double-digit rounds, I'm simply addressing roster weaknesses from the early rounds. I like to skew a bit heavier towards wide receiver with my early picks because these later rounds are dripping with running backs I want to stash on my bench. Many of them have no projectable volume. But think of them as lotto tickets. You stash as many as you can on your bench and hope one ends up in a viable role at some point. The more you invest in wide receiver, quarterback, and tight end early, the more lotto tickets you can stash late.
My favorite running back upside picks...
- Jonathon Brooks
- Chase Brown
- Jerome Ford
- Zach Charbonnet
- Blake Corum
- Jaylen Wright
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Chuba Hubbard
- Rico Dowdle
- Ty Chandler
- Bucky Irving
- Khalil Herbert
- Roschon Johnson
- Antonio Gibson
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Braelon Allen
- Ray Davis
- D'Onta Foreman
- Dylan Laube
- Tank Bigsby
But if you took a running back-heavy approach early, you must target wide receivers in these rounds. There aren't a lot of receivers that project for major roles at this point, so you want to bet on talent and hope that that talent turns into volume.
My favorite wide receiver upside picks...
- Brian Thomas Jr.
- Rome Odunze
- Christian Watson
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Ladd McConkey
- Xavier Worthy
- Khalil Shakir
- Jordan Addison
- Josh Downs
- Jameson Williams
- Romeo Doubs
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Brandin Cooks
- Darnell Mooney
- Xavier Legette
- Demario Douglas
- Ja'Lynn Polk
- Greg Dortch
- Bo Melton
As mentioned earlier, I'm ok kicking quarterback late in my draft this year. There are plenty of guys going late who possess immense upside.
If I miss out on an elite guy, I'll usually draft two quarterbacks late to double my chances of hitting on a late-round league winner.
- Jordan Love
- Brock Purdy
- Caleb Williams
- Jared Goff
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Deshaun Watson
- Geno Smith
I like taking a tight end early because there aren't many late that I'd feel good about starting.
But if I miss out early, these are my priority targets.
- David Njoku
- T.J. Hockenson
- Dallas Goedert
- Pat Freiermuth
- Jonnu Smith
- Taysom Hill
- Isaiah Likely
- Luke Musgrave
At the very end of your draft, just get your guys. The reality is that you'll probably be dropping these guys for waiver wire picks soon after the season starts. So have fun and draft players you want to root for. After all, fantasy football is supposed to be fun!
In addition to this draft guide, be sure to check out our Draft Dominator, which has league-synching abilities with our friends at Sleeper. This is for all of our ELITE and HALL OF FAME level subscribers, and you can find out more about those plans here.
If you have any other questions, feel free to shoot me a message on Twitter/X. Thanks for reading, and good luck this year!
