Week 18 is the most unique slate on the DFS calendar. For the most part, matchups can be de-emphasized—what a defense has done throughout the regular season may not matter as much when teams look nothing like they did earlier in the year. Many teams locked into playoff spots will rest key players, while others that are fully eliminated may protect draft position by sitting injured players. In some ways, this slate is most analogous to preseason NFL DFS, where success hinges on digging through coaches' comments, beat writer reports, and other news to figure out who will see the most playing time. As such, we will spend a bit more time than usual focusing on the game environments and a bit less on individual matchups.
The Week 18 FanDuel slate could be decided by players like Will Shipley, Joshua Dobbs, Tyrell Shavers, and Julius Chestnut. On the other hand, there are still spots featuring superstar starters playing in high-stakes games. We’ll want as much exposure as possible to players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Mike Evans. These players are incredibly expensive, and the natural approach will be to build stars-and-scrubs lineups—paying up for elite players in critical games while offsetting their costs with low-priced backups thrust into larger-than-usual roles.
There’s nothing wrong with the stars-and-scrubs strategy, but it’s essential to think critically about lineup differentiation. A more balanced approach could offer an edge, avoiding the extreme popularity of expensive stars like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs while targeting overlooked mid-tier players. Options like Jameson Williams, Jordan Addison, and Darnell Mooney won’t attract as much attention as their higher-profile teammates, especially with so much value available on the slate. Building around these under-the-radar players while avoiding heavily rostered stars could provide a path to success.
Updated Slate Overview
Before diving into specific player picks on a position-by-position basis, let's start out with a big-picture view of the Week 18 FanDuel Main Slate. I focus on three big-picture items each week:
- Overall implied team totals and spreads.
- How these implied team totals compare to each team's season-to-date average and which teams are projected to score more than normal.
- Percent-rostered projections at the team level within the context of implied team totals.
Implied Team Totals
In the visualization below, you'll see each team's implied team total along with how much they are favored by. Lines connecting opponents help illustrate the matchups. The higher the line, the higher the game total. The length of the lines also visualizes the size of the spread between the two teams.
The standout game on the slate is the Vikings-Lions Sunday Night Football showdown. With a total in the mid-50s and playoff-level stakes, the winner secures the NFC’s number one seed, earning a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This game guarantees a full effort from all the stars on both sides, and everything points toward a high-scoring affair. Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injuries, while their offense, led by Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown, has been unstoppable with aggressive play-calling. Stacking this game heavily makes sense, but it’s important to note that high team-level ownership on both sides will make it a popular choice among opponents.
The Buccaneers are another team to target, with a massive implied team total in their must-win matchup against the Saints. A victory secures the NFC South and the final playoff spot in the conference. Bucky Irving is in a prime spot to dominate, as the offense will lean on him heavily in this crucial game. He’s poised to put up big numbers and is a standout play on this slate.
The Falcons also stand out with a gigantic implied total as they face the Panthers. To stay alive, Atlanta must win and hope for a Saints upset. Their young core of Michael Penix Jr.., Bijan Robinson, and Drake London offers immense upside in a fantastic matchup. Even if the Buccaneers clinch the division, Atlanta’s offense will aim to close the season on a high note, showcasing their potential and building momentum for 2025.
Best Matchups
Season-to-date averages provide valuable context for identifying teams projected to exceed their usual performance. The table below compares each team's implied total ("Total") to their season average points per game ("PPG") and highlights the expected scoring boost for Week 18 ("Week 18 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:
The Falcons offense has been on fire with Michael Penix Jr.. at the helm, and they now face a dream matchup against a struggling Panthers defense. Carolina was torched last week, surrendering over 500 total yards to the Buccaneers. With the explosive trio of Penix Jr., Bijan Robinson, and Drake London, Atlanta’s stars are primed for another big game in Week 18. Also, don't forget about Darnell Mooney, who was a favorite target of Penix in Week 16 who will go overlooked after having minimal involvement last week.
The Jaguars offense, led by Mac Jones, is easy to overlook, but they’re in a great spot this week. The Colts just allowed Drew Lock to throw for 319 yards and account for five total touchdowns. Now, with Indianapolis eliminated from playoff contention, their defense may struggle to keep up. Brian Thomas Jr.. has an excellent opportunity to end his impressive rookie season with another standout performance.
Percent Rostered by Team
The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high percent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typical expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.
This is the first slate I can recall all season where three teams have a cumulative ownership exceeding 70%. We’ve already mentioned the extreme popularity of the Lions-Vikings matchup and the favorable positions Tampa Bay and Atlanta find themselves in. These four teams are projected to score at least 26.8 points, feature proven offensive stars, and have high levels of motivation—attributes that can’t be said for any other team on the slate. It’s no surprise they’ll dominate ownership, but this is a 14-game slate. With so much focus on these top four teams, the other 11 matchups will inevitably be overlooked, creating opportunities to capitalize on lower ownership and leverage.
Let’s highlight a few teams worth targeting outside of the “big four.” The Broncos, Packers, and Commanders rank 5th through 7th in implied team totals and each have cumulative ownership below 20%. The Broncos are straightforward—they’re playing for their playoff lives against Kansas City’s backups. Players like Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, and Marvin Mims Jr. are solid options with high upside. The Packers and Commanders, on the other hand, are trickier to assess. Both teams have secured playoff spots but are battling for the sixth seed, which has significant implications. The seventh seed faces a trip to Philadelphia to take on a well-rested Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, while the sixth seed gets a much easier matchup against the Rams or Buccaneers.
Vegas lines suggest both teams will be motivated this week. Despite Matt LaFleur’s comments about being cautious with injured players, the Packers’ 10.5-point spread indicates that their starters should play deep into the game. Similarly, the Commanders are 6.5-point home favorites, and reports from Washington’s beat writers suggest it’s business as usual. The Commanders want a 12th win, the sixth seed, and to avoid the daunting task of facing Philadelphia in the Wild Card round. One potential edge on this slate is leaning into teams like the Commanders and Packers, whose situations are less clear-cut than the top four teams but whose key players will be far less rostered. If games involving the Packers or Commanders shoot out and a player like Jayden Daniels or Josh Jacobs delivers a monster performance, the leverage gained will far exceed what you’d get if Jahmyr Gibbs or Sam Darnold has a big game.
Quarterback
The table below shows the current Top 10 quarterbacks based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
Sam Darnold and Jared Goff both project very well and are fairly priced at $8,100 and $7,900, respectively. If you’re multi-entering, it makes sense to have some exposure to these players in such a high-scoring game environment. However, with their limited rushing upside and extremely high expected popularity, this is a spot where I’m looking to be underweight compared to the field. While both quarterbacks are likely to score 20+ fantasy points, that may not be enough to separate you from the pack—especially in contests where many others will also be playing them.
My preference is to focus the majority of my lineups on lower-rostered quarterbacks with high upside. Baker Mayfield is one of the most appealing options, as he’s been on fire, throwing for five touchdowns last week. The Buccaneers would likely love to run up the score on the Saints, but with the playoffs on deck next week, there’s some concern about whether Mayfield plays all four quarters if the game gets out of hand. If Tampa Bay is leading 28-6 in the fourth quarter, Mayfield could sit, which limits his ceiling.
I love Michael Penix Jr.. this week. His confidence has been growing before our eyes, and he led clutch drives late in last week’s game against Washington. Though the effort fell short due to Jayden Daniels’ heroics, Penix showcased his poise and talent. This week, he gets a dream matchup against a Panthers defense that was shredded by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last week. With Penix’s talent and this matchup, he’s in a prime spot to excel.
My favorite quarterback play on this slate is Jayden Daniels. His combination of passing and rushing upside is unmatched. Over his last five games, Daniels has thrown for at least 200 yards and two touchdowns each week and has eight total passing touchdowns over his last two. He’s also been dominant on the ground, rushing for 274 yards on 36 carries in his last three games, including 74 rushing yards and a touchdown in the Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys, where he also threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns. Keep an eye on beat reports leading up to the game, but my read is that the Commanders are highly motivated to secure a win, finish the season strong, and lock up a favorable playoff matchup that avoids the Eagles in the first round.
Finally, Joshua Dobbs is an intriguing GPP play. After Brock Purdy suffered an injury in the final two minutes of Monday night’s loss to the Lions, Dobbs stepped in for one drive, throwing for 35 yards and rushing for a 7-yard touchdown. At just $6,000, Dobbs offers significant upside in the 49ers offense thanks to his rushing ability and the wealth of weapons at his disposal, including Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and George Kittle. However, the uncertainty surrounding the 49ers’ motivation in Week 18 is a concern. While they were clearly fired up to face the Lions, it’s fair to wonder if they’ll maintain that intensity this week. If the 49ers come out flat, Dobbs’ floor is quite low, but if Kyle Shanahan unleashes his creativity and Dobbs is given a chance to shine, this game has sneaky shootout potential against an unmotivated Cardinals team. At minimum salary and projected rostered at just 5%, I’ll be looking to double the field on Dobbs in my lineups.
Running Back
The table below shows the current Top 12 running backs based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
Week 18 DFS can feel similar to preseason DFS for teams with nothing to play for, as we’re often forced to parse comments from coaches to identify which backups will see the most touches. For teams like the Rams and Eagles, who have already announced they’ll rest their starters, we have a clearer picture. Blake Corum is expected to see a heavy workload for the Rams. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur shared with the media on Thursday, “It'd be good to see if he gets a little bit bigger workload. When you're the number two guy and Kyren [Williams] has taken the bulk of the reps, sometimes you don't get into the rhythm. More touches for a back is usually better. It'll just be good if he does get those opportunities to see him work through a drive or two drives in a row and see what he can do.” Meanwhile, the Eagles' backfield situation is less clear. Kenneth Gainwell has been the top backup all season and will likely see the field in some capacity against the Giants. However, there are indications that rookie fourth-rounder Will Shipley could handle the bulk of the action. Gainwell’s health will be crucial for the Eagles’ playoff run, and given his experience, the team may prioritize getting Shipley more game reps instead.
One of my favorite plays this week is Michael Carter. He played 72% of the snaps in Week 17, taking on a near full-time role after James Conner exited. Carter should once again dominate opportunities in the Cardinals' backfield as they face the 49ers. San Francisco seemed to empty the tank in their Monday night showdown with the Lions and may struggle to bring the same intensity for this game. Detroit exposed vulnerabilities in the 49ers’ defense, and I expect Carter to capitalize on this favorable matchup.
At the other end of the spectrum are the star running backs from the four marquee games mentioned earlier: Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Bijan Robinson, and Bucky Irving. These backs are on highly motivated teams projected to score at least three offensive touchdowns each. While all four are in excellent spots, their popularity will be sky-high, with everyone except Jones projecting to be over 30% rostered in tournaments. The matchups are strong across the board. Carolina has been giving up chunk yardage to opposing running backs (though fewer rushing touchdowns of late), and Robinson should cruise past 100 total yards. New Orleans has struggled mightily against the run, and Irving has quietly become one of the most efficient backs in the league. After trying to limit Gibbs’ touches on Monday night to keep him fresh, expect the Lions to unleash him with much less rotation in this must-win matchup. Each of these four backs is a priority play, but finding ways to differentiate your lineup will be key if you roster more than one of these super popular options.
Wide Receiver
The table below shows the current Top 12 wide receivers based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
For the second straight week, I am all in on the two rookie LSU wide receivers. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.. have been dominant down the stretch, showcasing their elite talent. Last week, Nabers exploded for seven catches, 171 yards, and two touchdowns against the Colts. This week, his former college teammate Thomas gets the same Indianapolis defense. Thomas has seen double-digit targets in five straight games, solidifying himself as one of the league’s premier wide receivers. Nabers, meanwhile, has averaged 93.8 receiving yards on a hefty 11.8 targets per game over his last five outings. The Eagles are expected to rest most of their starters in this meaningless Week 18 matchup, making it a much softer spot for Nabers than it appears on paper. Both rookies have surpassed 68 receiving yards in five straight games and are in smash spots to close out their rookie campaigns.
Mike Evans is another must-target wide receiver this week. He is just 5 catches and 85 receiving yards away from earning a $3,000,000 contract bonus, requiring him to hit 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 10 touchdowns on the season. With Baker Mayfield playing at an elite level—averaging 311.3 passing yards and 3.5 touchdowns per game over his last four outings—the stars are aligned for Evans to hit his milestones. The Buccaneers are highly motivated in this win-and-in scenario, where a victory secures the NFC South and a home playoff game next week. Expect Mayfield to feed Evans heavily.
While Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson will likely be the most popular plays in the high-scoring Vikings-Lions matchup, don’t overlook Jameson Williams and Jordan Addison. Both have carved out important roles in their respective offenses as strong secondary options. Williams, in particular, offers excellent value. His recent production and fantastic matchup against Minnesota make him my favorite wide receiver play on this slate. Pairing him with Jefferson or St. Brown in game stacks is a great way to take advantage of this high-total showdown while gaining potential leverage on the field.
Jauan Jennings is just 77 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season after spending his first three seasons largely in obscurity. Head coach Kyle Shanahan emphasized in a press conference this week that he is fully aware of how many yards Jennings needs to reach this milestone. With both Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle dealing with injuries, Jennings is expected to be the primary target for Joshua Dobbs in Week 18. Stacking Dobbs and Jennings offers a low-cost, high-upside way to attack this slate, especially with the potential for Dobbs to exploit a vulnerable defense in a game that could fly under the radar.
Tight End
The table below shows the current Top 10 tight ends based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
With the value options available at running back this week, it’s easier than usual to fit in one of the top tight ends, like Trey McBride or Brock Bowers. Both are strong plays for obvious reasons, offering elite usage and production at the position.
Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson are also appealing options, especially as they play in the high-scoring Vikings-Lions Sunday night matchup. Both have seen increasing usage in recent weeks and are projected to be popular without being prohibitively rostered. At salaries of $6,000 or below, they fit nicely into the mid-tier pricing range and offer solid upside in a game with significant shootout potential.
My favorite stacking option for Jayden Daniels, one of my top quarterbacks this week, is his tight end Zach Ertz. Ertz is coming off arguably his best game of the season, posting 72 yards and two touchdowns. He has seen at least seven targets in five of his last nine games, a solid 55% rate. If he hits that volume again this week, he’s a fantastic tournament play at just $5,400, with a sub-5% projected ownership. This makes him an excellent low-rostered option to differentiate lineups while maintaining significant upside.
Defense
The table below shows the current Top 8 defenses based upon Point-Per-Dollar values in the Footballguys Consensus Projections:
I like the idea of saving money at the position and targeting one of the cheaper defenses that will be facing a backup quarterback. The Seahawks are a great option, as they’ll go up against Jimmy Garoppolo with the Rams already indicating they’ll rest all of their key offensive stars.
The Patriots are another solid choice, likely facing Mitch Trubisky and a Bills offense that will be playing almost exclusively backups. Head coach Jerod Mayo, known for his defensive acumen, could use a strong performance to bolster his case for staying at the helm in New England next season.
Finally, while the Giants defense has been battered and inconsistent, they benefit from a matchup against an Eagles team resting all of their offensive stars. This projects as a very low-scoring game, making the Giants a viable option for their low price tag.