When preparing to write about FanDuel tournaments each week, part of my process involves explicitly writing out some of the critical unknown factors that could most impact the slate. I want to start off this week’s article by sharing some of the questions I have this week and how the potential answers to those questions are shaping my roster-building strategy.
How does the David Montgomery injury impact the Lions' offense?
David Montgomery has averaged 15.9 opportunities per game (carries plus targets). Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 16.8 opportunities per game this season. Does Montgomery's absence simply mean that the Lions will continue giving 32.7 total opportunities per game to the running back position, with Gibbs now taking on 27 of those opportunities and the rest going to backup running backs? Or could this signal a more fundamental shift in how the Lions' offense operates?
For instance, what if the Lions' running backsonly see 25 opportunities per game, leaving an additional 7–8 opportunities for other positions? Does this mean a shift to a more pass-heavy offense with more attempts by Jared Goff? This could mean more work for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Both would project as solid options even if the Montgomery injury did not impact their usage. However, they would project to be outstanding plays if we think they each see a couple of extra targets due to the injury.
Most players will likely approach this slate assuming the first scenario—that Gibbs will absorb most of Montgomery’s workload. Don’t be surprised if Gibbs is nearly 50% owned in many tournaments this weekend while the passing game goes largely overlooked. Gibbs is a fine play and should see at least 20 touches. However, if his bump in workload is smaller than expected and the Lions simply transition to a less RB-centric offensive approach, stacking Goff with one or more of his top targets could be a tournament-winning contrarian strategy.
_(1000_x_500_px)_png)