FanDuel GPP Guide: Week 14

I try to avoid looking at projected roster percentages until Friday. By then, I’ve already developed strong leans on the best values and players with the highest chances of landing in a GPP-winning FanDuel lineup. Let’s call them “my guys.” My favorite DFS slates are the ones where I can scroll down the roster percentage projections and still find a few of my guys flying under the radar. Unfortunately, this week feels like the opposite. Almost every player I’m excited to roster is shaping up to be a popular play and is sitting at or near the top of the percent-rostered projections.

Part of that is the smaller slate—six teams are on bye—which naturally narrows the pool of viable options. We’re also late in the season, where larger sample sizes have given us more accurate data on defenses to target and more precise expectations for offensive roles. But the real kicker this week? Injuries have created some glaringly mispriced players.

Take the 49ers: they’ve lost both their starting and backup running backs for the season, but Isaac Guerendo is still priced like a third-stringer. Over in New York, Breece Hall has been playing 80% of the snaps since Week 6, which tanked Braelon Allen’s price. With Hall looking doubtful, Allen could be in line for 15–20 fresh-legged touches—something invaluable this late in the season. And if D’Andre Swift can’t suit up, Chicago’s backfield might also offer some standout value.

This week, the most popular plays aren’t just chalk—they’re also the best plays. At running back, especially, there’s a bigger gap than usual between the top-tier options and everyone else. That makes crafting a winning GPP strategy trickier. Or maybe it simplifies things: sometimes, the best move is to embrace the chalk. Play the popular running backs, pair them with wide receivers who fit the salary structure, and let everyone else overthink their contrarian pivots.

That’s where I’m leaning this week. As such, I’m taking a slightly different approach in this writeup. Instead of focusing on overlooked plays with upside, I’ll spend more time highlighting the best points-per-dollar (PPD) plays. Whether you decide to lean into a chalkier build or pivot to make your lineup more unique, success starts with understanding what the optimal builds look like this week.

Updated Slate Overview

Before diving into specific player picks on a position-by-position basis, let's start out with a big-picture view of the Week 14 FanDuel Main Slate.

Implied Team Totals

In the visualization below, you'll see each team's implied team total along with their point spread. Lines connecting opponents help illustrate the matchups. The higher the line, the higher the game total. The length of the lines also visualizes the size of the spread between the two teams.

• Vegas suggests the Bills-Rams game has shootout potential, making it a key spot to target. My preferred approach is through Josh Allen. With enough value on the slate to afford a pricey quarterback, I’m comfortable playing him unstacked rather than guessing which pass catcher will have the biggest day.
• This visualization highlights just how much the Eagles’ situation stands out on this slate, both in terms of their heavy favoritism and their significantly higher implied team total compared to any other team. Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are expensive, but it would be surprising if at least one of them doesn’t exceed 25 fantasy points.

Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages provide valuable context for identifying teams projected to exceed their usual performance. The table below compares each team's implied total ("Total") to their season average points per game ("PPG") and highlights the expected scoring boost for Week 14 ("Week 14 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

• Once again, the Eagles stand out prominently. All signs point toward prioritizing Saquon Barkley in as many tournament lineups as possible, especially with the clear value plays available this week that make it easier to afford him.

Percent Rostered by Team

The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high percent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typical expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.

• For perhaps the first time all season, nothing truly stands out here. This ties back to the point in the introduction: there are few ways to build contrarian lineups without sacrificing both overall scoring upside and base projections. Every top team on the slate is drawing attention from a percent-rostered perspective.

Quarterback

As noted in the introduction, I’m taking a different approach this week by highlighting the top overall points-per-dollar (PPD) plays at each position before moving into a more concise breakdown of my favorite plays. I want to spend less words breaking down the specifics of individual players and more words talking big picture strategy at each position. The table below lists the Top 10 PPD plays at quarterback. Unlike other positions, there isn’t a significant gap between the top-ranked player and the one ranked 10th.

If there’s any position where it makes sense to go a bit contrarian and trust your gut in Week 14, it’s at quarterback. You’re sacrificing very little in PPD projections no matter which of these 10 options you choose, and I wouldn’t argue against any of them as solid GPP plays this week.

With all quarterbacks on the slate projecting below 10% rostered, popularity isn’t a concern. I’m also fine waiting until most of my roster is filled before choosing a quarterback, especially if I’m building lineups by hand. If I have plenty of cap space left, I love paying up for Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. If not, there are plenty of solid options around $7K with decent upside—provided you can stomach their relatively low implied team totals.

Core Plays

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($8900, vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Others To Consider

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles ($9200, vs. Carolina Panthers)
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears ($7300, vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans ($6600, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns ($6900, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Running Back

This week’s slate features two explosive rookie running backs with fresh legs, thrust into starting roles due to injuries, and priced at just $5,200—Isaac Guerendo and Braelon Allen. These two stand out as the defining feature of the Week 14 FanDuel main slate.

Additionally, we have two elite veteran running backs, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, each with base projections well above 20 points—massive numbers. Without question, the optimal strategy this week (ignoring percent rostered) is to roster some combination of three of these four backs.

Building around one expensive back with two cheap backs makes roster construction a breeze. Trying to fit both Barkley and Kamara alongside one of the cheaper options is trickier, but it’s doable. Beyond these top four (and a questionable D'Andre Swift) there’s a noticeable drop-off in points-per-dollar (PPD) value.

Do I love that my four favorite running back plays this week are all projected for 20%+ rostered, with the potential to climb even higher? Of course not. Unfortunately, I don’t see many exciting pivots.

One way to differentiate slightly is by pivoting off the top backs and targeting Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane in the next tier down. The downside is that you’re sacrificing a lot in terms of both floor and ceiling, which is why, despite liking both Robinson and Achane, they only land in the "Others to Consider" category.

For my core plays, I’m sticking with the chalk at running back.

Core Plays

Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers ($5200, vs. Chicago Bears)
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles ($10000, vs. Carolina Panthers)
Braelon Allen, New York Jets ($5200, vs. Miami Dolphins)

Others To Consider

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($9200, vs. New York Giants)
De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins ($8700, vs. New York Jets)
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons ($8900, vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Wide Receiver

The stars-and-scrubs approach is likely to dominate at running back this week, but the opposite is true at wide receiver. Interestingly, the Top 6 PPD projections at wide receiver are all priced within a narrow range of $6,100 to $7,000. The depth of strong options in this tier should help prevent any single player from becoming overwhelmingly popular, though each is still projected for double-digit ownership.

As noted in the introduction, it was a bit of a letdown to see how closely my list of favorite plays aligned with the most popular percent-rostered projections. But it is what it is. I’m not going to overthink game theory or differentiation this week.

Long term, blindly playing the chalk every week is a losing strategy. However, it’s fine to occasionally admit that a slate offers limited opportunities to gain meaningful leverage while still maintaining positive expected value. That’s exactly where I’m at for Week 14. 

For the most part, I like sticking in that meaty $6,000-to-$7,000 range. If I have the cap space to get up to someone like Mike Evans, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, or Drake London, great. If not, I am not going to handicap myself at other positions to try to squeeze in a more expensive WR1 like I might in another week. 

Core Plays

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers ($7000, vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8400, vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns ($6100, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

Others To Consider

Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders ($6700, vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans ($6300, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($6900, vs. Tennessee Titans)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks ($8000, vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Tight End

For the most part, I’m sticking with this top six-man tier at tight end when building lineups this week. Each player in this group offers a solid floor as one of the top two options in their team’s passing offense. Most are priced reasonably, though Brock Bowers is starting to get expensive.

Another position, another endorsement of sticking with the chalk as the best tournament approach. You’ve probably noticed the theme this week.

If you’re looking to get contrarian, there’s a solid case to be made for Grant Calcaterra. He’s extremely cheap and should see at least a handful of targets with Dallas Goedert sidelined.

Core Plays

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($6200, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5600, vs. Las Vegas Raiders)

Others To Consider

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders ($8000, vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($6800, vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
Grant Calcaterra, Philadelphia Eagles ($4300, vs. Carolina Panthers)

Defense

Arizona Cardinals ($3,700 vs. Seahawks)

Over the last four games, the Cardinals have allowed just 54 points total. The unit has forced a turnover in three straight. When Arizona faced Seattle just two weeks ago, five different Cardinals sacked Geno Smith.

Philadelphia Eagles ($4,800 vs. Panthers)

The Eagles mostly shutdown an elite Ravens offense last week and have been playing at an absurdly high level for the last two months. Carolina has a slate-low 16.3 implied team total and are almost two-touchdown underdogs. If this goes to script, the Eagles pass rush will be able to tee off on Bryce Young for the entire second half with the Panthers trying to come from behind.