Updated Slate Overview

Before diving into specific player picks on a position-by-position basis, let's start out with a big-picture view of the Week 13 FanDuel Main Slate.

Implied Team Totals

 In the visualization below, you'll see each team's implied team total along with their point spread. Lines connecting opponents help illustrate the matchups. The higher the line, the higher the game total. The highest line connects the Lions and Colts, indicating that this game has the highest over/under on the slate and is one of the most appealing game environments to target.The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Eagles and Rams has the next highest over/under on the slate.

The length of the lines also visualizes the size of the spread between the two teams.

When looking at the 11 games on the Week 13 slate, the first thing that jumps out is that the four games with the highest point totals are expected to be close. If you're targeting games with the potential for shootout scripts, the Eagles-Ravens, Saints-Rams, Falcons-Chargers, and Steelers-Bengals matchups really stand out.

That said, it's worth being a little cautious with the Eagles-Ravens game, which has the highest projected total. Both teams have solid implied scores in the mid-20s, but they're each averaging about three points more per game this season than their Week 13 projections. This is why calculating the Weekly Scoring Boost is such a key part of the process—it helps put these numbers into better perspective.

Best Matchups

Season-to-date averages provide valuable context for identifying teams projected to exceed their usual performance. The table below compares each team's implied total ("Total") to their season average points per game ("PPG") and highlights the expected scoring boost for Week 12 ("Week 12 Boost"). Here are the top matchups:

The Rams and Chargers really catch the eye here. Both teams boast high implied point totals (over 25) and solid weekly scoring boosts. Since FanDuel's pricing algorithm mainly relies on season-to-date averages, the favorable matchups for the star players on these teams might not be fully reflected in their prices, presenting a prime opportunity for value and tournament upside.

Additionally, the Jaguars and Texans just make it onto the top matchups list. This game is flying under the radar in Week 13 but holds sneaky potential. It's a matchup I'm considering for a game stack.

Percent Rostered by Team

The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high percent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typical expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.

The Buccaneers and Bills really stand out here. Both teams have Top 5 implied totals on the slate, but their combined projected roster percentages are under 30%. Keep this in mind as we'll be highlighting several players from these teams in the positional writeups below.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert stands out as "good chalk" this week. His sub-$8K price, rushing upside, and elite matchup make him a strong candidate to score 20-plus points. Matthew Stafford, on the other hand, is arguably the safest quarterback play on the slate. The Rams are poised to score plenty against a mediocre Saints defense, and Stafford is likely to rack up yards. The tournament upside for Stafford hinges on how many of the Rams' touchdowns come through the air versus on the ground. If they all come through the air, Stafford could easily be a tournament winner.

While most rosters will feature relatively inexpensive quarterbacks, there's an opportunity to take a contrarian approach with higher-priced options. Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts, all priced at $8,500 or more, will attract lower ownership. Hurts and Mayfield are especially intriguing, with projected rostered percentages below 5%, making them excellent plays for tournaments.

Core Plays

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,900 vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Since the Week 5 bye, Herbert has been averaging 260.9 passing yards and 26.7 rushing yards per game. With top running back J.K. Dobbins sidelined, Herbert and the passing game will likely shoulder an even heavier load. The matchup is pristine. Over the past five weeks, the Falcons are allowing 6.5 PPG more than their opponents' quarterbacks average. This is second-most in the NFL over this stretch. While Herbert is expected to be popular, the quarterback percent rostered projections are relatively flat and I am not scared off by the fact he will be on something in the neighborhood of 10% of tournament rosters.

Others to Consider

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($7,400 vs. New Orleans Saints)

Over his last five games, Stafford has averaged 281.6 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. While his upside is somewhat limited due to his lack of rushing ability, Stafford is affordable enough to deliver a tournament-winning score if he can throw for four touchdowns—a feat he's accomplished twice in the past four weeks. The Saints present a slightly above-average matchup, allowing 0.6 fantasy points per game above their opponents' average over the last five weeks.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans ($8,000 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

After a stellar rookie season, Stroud's production has dipped in his sophomore year, and he's shown minimal tournament upside. He's topped 20 FanDuel points just once this season, which was in his Week 4 matchup against the Jaguars. In this rematch against a struggling Jaguars defense, Stroud could be a solid target for a potential breakout game. The Jaguars have allowed 2.9 PPG above average to opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks, which is the seventh most in the league. Stroud also gets a big boost from Nico Collins, who is fully up to speed in his third game back from a serious hamstring injury. Having a big-play threat at outside receiver is massive for Stroud's upside.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles ($9,200 vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Hurts is always a strong tournament option, thanks to his rushing upside, with nine rushing touchdowns in his last six games. This week, though, it's his passing potential that stands out. While the Ravens have been a neutral matchup for quarterbacks over the past five weeks, they've occasionally allowed big games to opposing signal-callers. That could happen here if Baltimore shifts its focus to slowing down the red-hot Saquon Barkley and the Eagles' running attack.

Baltimore's elite offense also adds to Hurts' appeal. During the Eagles' current seven-game winning streak, they've allowed more than 20 points just once, often dominating their opponents and playing conservatively in the second half. However, as road underdogs against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' explosive offense, Philadelphia is unlikely to coast in this matchup. That sets up Hurts for a potential ceiling game.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,500 vs. Carolina Panthers)

Mayfield recently put together an impressive three-game stretch, averaging 341.7 passing yards and 3.3 touchdowns per game. While he's cooled off a bit in recent weeks, this matchup offers the potential for another ceiling performance. Though many view running back as the key position to target against the Panthers, Carolina has allowed 3.0 PPG above average to opposing quarterbacks over the past five weeks, the sixth-most in the NFL. This sets up as a great spot for Mayfield to shine.