The key to finding an edge in Week 10 may lie in roster construction. Whether opponents are hand-building or using optimizers, the natural tendency will be to include three running backs in the $7,300 to $8,800 range. Spending in this range limits the realistic options at other positions. While this approach may seem optimal based on projections, there’s an advantage to being contrarian and allocating salary cap space differently in tournaments. With rostered percentage projections in mind, there are several players worth considering who might be somewhat overlooked due to pricing this week.
Before diving into specific players, let's first take a big-picture view of the slate both in terms of percent rostered projections and matchups.
Percent Rostered by Team
The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, focusing on players from high-scoring teams is a strong strategy, as it often correlates with higher upside. However, high implied team totals should also correlate with high pecent-rostered projections. It is when the percent-rostered projections by team deviate from the typcial expectations that is especially interesting and may potentially indicate an edge we can exploit in tournaments. That's the purpose of the table below.
Here, the Eagles stand out. Tied with the Bills for the third-highest implied team total on the slate, Philadelphia has the second-lowest cumulative rostered percentage among the 22 main slate teams. While top Eagles players are pricey, and the matchup is average (especially with the Cowboys' defense getting healthier), Philadelphia is one of only eight teams with an implied team total exceeding their season average. All these factors make the Eagles an intriguing option for lineup consideration.
Top Matchups
Quarterback
As noted above, the relatively high prices of running backs will significantly impact roster percentages at other positions. At quarterback, Jalen Hurts ($9,400) and Josh Allen ($9,200) are priced well above the third-highest quarterback on the slate, Jayden Daniels ($8,400). Both are likely to be rostered at much lower rates than usual, making them valuable contrarian options in tournaments, given their substantial upside. For a more straightforward approach at quarterback, Daniels, Brock Purdy ($8,100), and Patrick Mahomes II ($7,900) stand out in the mid-tier. Among the bargain options, Justin Herbert ($6,900) is my favorite by a good margin.
Core Plays
Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($9,400 vs. Dallas)
Hurts will have all his top weapons available, with DeVonta Smith (hamstring), Dallas Goedert (hamstring), and A.J. Brown (knee) all practicing fully on Friday. Each has a very low projected roster percentage, making this a great opportunity for a contrarian stack. Hurts is also worth playing solo, thanks to his rushing upside and the chance that receiving production is split among the trio, leaving none as a must-have at their prices. I’m seeing him projected as the 18th most popular quarterback play on this 11-game slate, which seems wild. There's definitely more than a 3% chance that Jalen Hurts ends up being the player you needed to have in Week 10. How often are we able to roster a quarterback with six rushing touchdowns over his last three outings in tournaments when that quarterback is projected to be on slightly less than 3% of GPP rosters?
Justin Herbert, Chargers ($6,900 vs. Titans)
Since the Week 5 bye, Justin Herbert has averaged 286.8 passing yards per game. Many may have overestimated the role that scheme played in his slow start and underestimated the impact of his preseason injuries. "I don’t think people understand the extent of what he was dealing with physically in the beginning part of the year,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman said last week. “As he’s getting healthier, you can see the difference it makes. Additionally, each week he’s gaining more comfort and ownership of what we’re doing. The last couple of weeks, we’ve only scratched the surface." While the Titans may lack the offensive firepower to push Herbert into a true ceiling game, their strong run defense should force the Chargers to remain relatively pass-heavy to make an impact. Herbert should be priced closer to $8,000, making him a great value at his sub-$7K price tag, even if his ceiling isn’t quite as high as some other quarterbacks this week.
Others to Consider
Brock Purdy, 49ers ($8,100 vs. Buccaneers)
Don’t overlook Purdy’s rushing upside—he’s logged 16 carries for 83 yards and three touchdowns over the past two weeks. With the 49ers' skill players finally healthy, Purdy now has a wealth of weapons at his disposal. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings form a formidable group that should create mismatches against opposing defenses. The matchup couldn’t be better, as the Buccaneers have allowed an average of 320 passing yards and 3.4 passing touchdowns per game over the past five games. In that span, all but one opposing quarterback (Spencer Rattler) threw for at least 275 yards and three touchdowns.
Josh Allen, Bills ($9,200 vs. Colts)
Allen is another fantastic "pay up to be contrarian" option this week. His combination of passing and rushing upside is elite, and he has an outstanding matchup. Whenever Indianapolis has faced a legitimate quarterback with rushing ability, they've struggled. In Week 3, Caleb Williams put up 371 total yards and two touchdowns against them. The following week, Justin Fields racked up a season-high 367 total yards and three touchdowns. In Week 5, Trevor Lawrence posted 375 total yards and two touchdowns, and last week, Sam Darnold managed 304 total yards and three touchdowns.
Running Back
We have a list of eight running backs projected to be quite popular on the slate, led by Alvin Kamara. The group also includes Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and D'Andre Swift, all priced between $7,300 and $8,800. I expect the vast majority of tournament lineups on Sunday to feature two or three backs from this price range. In fact, based on rostered percentage projections, over 70% of running back ownership will likely be concentrated within this narrow price band.
I’d love to find an inexpensive back I feel confident in, as it would make lineup building at wide receiver much easier. A cheap option would also open up a path to one of the slate’s expensive backs. Rico Dowdle ($6,200) is the only low-cost back expected to be popular. While he makes sense in terms of point-per-dollar (PPD) value, I’m not sold on his upside. At the other end of the pricing range, Saquon Barkley ($9,600) and Christian McCaffrey ($9,400) are challenging to fit within our $60K budget, and our opponents will face the same difficulty. The challenge of fitting one of these high-priced backs into a lineup actually increases their appeal in tournaments, as few will roster them despite their solid matchups.
Core Plays
Aaron Jones, Vikings ($7,900 vs. Jaguars)
In his last five healthy games, Aaron Jones has averaged 19 carries and 4 targets per game, a usage level matched by few running backs. His sub-$8K price tag, Minnesota's solid 25.5-point implied team total, and an elite matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs (25.1) enhance his appeal. While he is expected to be one of the more popular plays on the slate, Jones profiles as good chalk.
Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($9,600 vs. Cowboys)
On one hand, I’m skeptical that Barkley will be as low-rostered as industry projections suggest. We all saw last week’s highlights, and he’s averaged an incredible 147.7 rushing yards per game over his last three. How could he possibly be projected below 10% rostered?
On the other hand, his salary is genuinely difficult to fit in. The $1,100 price gap between Barkley and Alvin Kamara is significant on a slate with limited value options. He may, in fact, hover around his 7% projection. If so, he’ll be one of the best plays on the slate. No player has more realistic 30-point upside, and if Barkley hits a ceiling game, he’ll be a must-have regardless of his price. Last week, the Cowboys allowed 145 total yards to Bijan Robinson, underscoring the potential here.
Others to Consider
Alvin Kamara, Saints ($8,500 vs. Falcons)
Kamara is arguably underpriced by at least $1,000. Although he hasn’t scored in three weeks, that’s the only knock on his resume. His usage has been incredible: he logged a season-high 29 carries for 155 yards last week. Kamara also plays a major role in the passing game, averaging 6.0 catches for 39.2 yards on 8.7 targets per game over his last six. Those numbers are set to rise following injuries at wide receiver. Rashid Shaheed is out for the season with a knee injury, and Chris Olave is sidelined after his second concussion of the season last week. Even promising rookie Bub Means is out for the season, leaving veteran journeyman Cedrick Wilson Jr. and undrafted rookie Mason Tipton as the top options (with Wilson also missing practice this week due to a shoulder injury). It’s a grim situation at wide receiver, leaving Kamara with virtually no competition for targets.
The Falcons’ defense has been solid against the run but vulnerable to running backs in the passing game. Last week, Rico Dowdle caught five passes for 32 yards and a touchdown against them. The week before, Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for 12 catches, 78 receiving yards, and a touchdown. In the last matchup between these teams, Kamara caught seven passes for 42 yards. There are just two reasons Kamara is not listed as a core play. First, he is likely to be incredibly popular. Second, the lack of recent touchdown production may not be a fluke. This Saints offense is not talented enough as currently constructed to put up a bunch of points, which limits Kamara's ceiling somewhat compared to other top backs.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($8,800 vs. Saints)
Robinson has averaged 86.8 rushing yards on 17 carries per game over his last four outings, surpassing 86 rushing yards in three of those games. He has also seen an uptick in usage as a receiver, with back-to-back games with seven touches. He’s averaged 5.0 catches on 5.8 targets per game over his last four.
The last time Atlanta faced New Orleans, Robinson was banged up, allowing Tyler Allgeier to lead the backfield with 60 yards on eight carries. Since a strong start on both sides fo the ball, New Orleans has unraveled, now in the midst of a seven-game losing streak, during which they’ve allowed at least 26 points in five of their last six games, with the lone exception being 23 points to the struggling Panthers offense last week. During this stretch, the Saints' defense has been particularly vulnerable against the run, surrendering 147 yards and two touchdowns to Saquon Barkley, 192 total yards and two touchdowns to Sean Tucker (plus 105 yards and a touchdown to Bucky Irving in the same game), 111 yards and two scores to Javonte Williams, and 102 rushing yards and a touchdown to Kareem Hunt.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots ($7,000 vs. Bears)
With the Patriots’ receiving corps banged up, Stevenson’s primed for an even bigger role in both the run and pass game, giving him plenty of ways to rack up points. The matchup against a mediocre Bears run defense is ideal, especially with Chicago’s top run-stopper, Andrew Billings, sidelined due to injury. Plus, having quarterback Drake Maye’s rushing ability keeps defenses honest and opens up bigger running lanes for Stevenson to exploit. Stevenson might go overlooked in tournaments due to New England’s recent offensive struggles, making him a sneaky GPP pick. At an affordable salary, Stevenson brings a nice mix of opportunity, matchup, and value that’s tough to ignore this week.
Austin Ekeler, Commanders ($6,800 vs. Steelers)
With Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined again this week, Austin Ekeler is set to lead the Commanders' backfield. However, his workload in this role has been modest; last week, he logged a season-high 15 opportunities (11 carries and four targets). A similar number of touches is expected in Week 10. While the matchup against Pittsburgh appears challenging—the Steelers have allowed an average of 90.5 rushing yards per game this season—they did concede 145 rushing yards to Tyrone Tracy Jr.. last week. Although Ekeler's volume may seem limited, he presents a viable tournament option for two reasons: first, he's projected to be rostered by roughly 1% of managers; second, the sub-$7K running back range offers few appealing choices, necessitating a more lenient evaluation of these lower-priced players.
Wide Receiver
As with quarterback, wide receiver roster percentages will be heavily influenced by the lack of value at running back. Those paying up for three running backs in the $8,000 range likely won’t afford expensive wide receivers, meaning we can expect several receivers in the $6,000 to $7,500 range to be quite popular. As with quarterback, this trend will reduce roster rates for top wide receivers like Justin Jefferson ($9,500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($9,000), and A.J. Brown ($8,900). Embracing the challenge of fitting one of these high-priced receivers into your lineup could be a strong strategy this week, offering a way to separate from the pack.
We’ve discussed paying up to be unique at multiple positions, but how do we actually make this happen? Where can we save cap space to fund it? One approach is to target inexpensive rookie wide receivers. Adonai Mitchell ($5,200) could see a larger role with Michael Pittman Jr. likely out due to a lingering back injury. Rome Odunze ($5,900) looked like the Bears' best receiver last week and could finally emerge as the go-to option in their passing game. Mason Tipton ($5,700), an undrafted rookie with a profile similar to Rashid Shaheed, may be thrust into the WR1 role for the Saints due to injuries.
Core Plays
DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs ($6,000 vs. Broncos)
DeAndre Hopkins is a steal this week. Last game, he put up huge numbers for the Chiefs, catching eight passes for 86 yards and two touchdowns, showing just how dangerous he can be in this offense. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid praised how seamlessly Hopkins has fit in, crediting the quick chemistry he’s already built with Mahomes. Hopkins has picked up the Chiefs' playbook impressively fast. “They’re both football guys. I’m not sure they turn it off for a long period of time, if at all,” Reid said. “He studies like crazy. We have him in a bunch of different spots, so for him to pick it up like he has and be able to get out of the huddle and get lined up has been a plus.” The connection just works. Mahomes thrives on short routes, where Hopkins is an elite contested-catch weapon, especially in tight coverage. Hopkins also shines on scramble plays, thanks to his veteran instincts. While Hopkins is expected to be popular, his low price makes him a must-have. He has a high floor, and we’ve already seen his ceiling in his first full game with the Chiefs.
Calvin Ridley, Titans ($5,800 vs. Chargers)
In the last two games with Mason Rudolph at the helm, Ridley averaged 7.5 catches and 108 receiving yards on 11.5 targets per game. Will Levis returning to the starting lineup is a negative, but it is possible the mini-breakout from Ridley puts more pressure on Levis to make sure Ridley continues to produce. The breakout also coincides with the trade of DeAndre Hopkins, which leaves Ridley alone to dominate target share. Ridley is a good bet to see 10+ targets this week, which is impossible to ignore given his sub-$6k price tag.
Adonai Mitchell, Colts ($5,200 vs. Bills)
Adonai Mitchell has recorded 10 receptions for 108 yards over his last five games, despite playing only 66 total snaps. With Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined for Week 10, Mitchell is expected to see increased playing time. Head coach Shane Steichen noted, "He's improving, so looking forward to him playing this week." Mitchell has demonstrated the ability to create separation and exhibits impressive athleticism for his size. However, he has faced challenges with consistency at the catch point and developing timing with the quarterback. Given his potential and favorable price point, taking a chance on Mitchell could be worthwhile.
Others to Consider
Ladd McConkey, Chargers ($6,300 vs. Titans)
Investing in the Chargers' passing offense this week is a sound strategy, especially with Ladd McConkey emerging as a key target. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has even compared McConkey to NFL great Steve Smith Sr., highlighting his talent and potential impact. The Titans' defense has struggled against slot receivers recently, allowing seven or more catches to Demario Douglas, Khalil Shakir, and Josh Downs over the past month, with each leading their team in receptions against Tennessee. Although McConkey is projected to be a popular pick, the favorable matchup and his role in the Chargers' offense make him a worthwhile play, even with his expected roster percentage.
Tank Dell, Texans ($7,200 vs. Lions)
Tank Dell showcased his playmaking ability in Week 9, recording six receptions for 126 yards. With Nico Collins still sidelined, Dell remains C.J. Stroud's primary target. Facing the high-scoring Lions, who average 33.4 points per game, the Texans will likely adopt an aggressive, pass-heavy approach in the Sunday night matchup. While Dell is expected to be a popular choice, his potential production justifies the selection.
Rome Odunze, Bears ($5,900 vs. Patriots)
Odunze is emerging as the Bears' top wide receiver option. D.J. Moore is frustrated with his role, and Keenan Allen appears past his prime, leaving Odunze to lead the team in air yards share and average depth of target (aDOT). With the Patriots ranking 27th in quarterback pressure rate, the Bears should have time to take shots downfield, where Odunze excels. While New England’s standout corner Christian Gonzalez is likely to shadow Moore and limit his upside, Odunze has a clear opportunity to step up. The Patriots' secondary has issues beyond Gonzalez, with shaky performances and subs in key spots. For those looking to include high-priced contrarian plays in their lineup, Odunze is one of the best bets in the sub-$6k range.
Tight End
The tight end position has transformed from a fantasy wasteland to one with numerous viable options. Travis Kelce ($7,000) is seeing a high volume of targets but remains affordably priced due to his slow start to the season. Cade Otton ($6,400) has also received significant usage in the wake of Tampa Bay’s wide receiver injuries and is a strong play. Dalton Schultz ($5,400) is inexpensive and likewise benefits from injuries to two of his team’s top three wide receivers. Evan Engram ($6,200), Taysom Hill ($6,300), and Dalton Kincaid ($6,000) are also likely to see increased opportunities in Week 10 due to wide receiver injuries.
Core Plays
Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,000 vs. Broncos)
Travis Kelce is a strong tournament play on FanDuel this week, especially with the added opportunity created by Rashee Rice’s absence. Over the last five games, Kelce has been dominant, averaging 8.8 catches for 73.2 yards on 10.4 targets per game and holding a massive 32% target share. He’s surpassed 70 receiving yards in four of these games, including last week, where he tied his career high with 14 catches. Kelce’s history against Denver further strengthens his case, as he averaged 91.0 receiving yards per game against the Broncos last season and has a career average of 77.5 yards per game against them.
Others to Consider
Dalton Schultz, Texans ($5,400 vs. Lions)
Dalton Schultz has become a key component of the Texans' passing game, especially with Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins sidelined. Over the past five weeks, Schultz has seen six or more targets in four games, highlighting his consistent involvement. Despite this volume, he remains affordably priced, likely due to his absence from the end zone this season—a surprising trend considering he scored at least five touchdowns in each of the previous three seasons. Facing the high-powered Lions offense, the Texans will need to score prolifically, positioning Schultz as a valuable option with significant upside.
Defense
Core Plays
Washington Commanders ($3,500 vs. Steelers)
The Washington Commanders' defense has significantly improved, holding opponents to 15 points or fewer in four of the last six games. After a slow start, the unit has found its rhythm. While the Steelers' offense has been effective since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback, the team still faces challenges at offensive tackle, and Wilson has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long. This combination could provide opportunities for the Commanders' defense to capitalize.
Others to Consider
Indianapolis Colts ($3,000 vs. Bills)
Given the tight salary cap this week and limited standout defensive options, opting for a budget-friendly defense is a practical strategy. While the Bills' offense is typically one to avoid targeting, the Indianapolis Colts' defense has been impressive, holding four consecutive opponents to 23 points or fewer.
Los Angeles Chargers ($4,800 vs. Titans)
The Chargers defense has been consistently elite, holding every opponent to 20 points or fewer. That trend will almost certainly continue this week against the Titans. Will Levis is back at the helm for Tennessee, which is good news for the Chargers. Levis has thrown more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (5) on the season.
Continue reading this content with a HALL OF FAME subscription.
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football
only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
