Unlike previous weeks, Week 7 brings significantly less uncertainty regarding late-breaking injury news that could dramatically alter DFS strategy on the FanDuel Main Slate. On the positive side, this allows us more time to analyze projections and identify the strongest plays with confidence. However, this also means our competition has the same luxury, with fewer unpredictable elements to create opportunities for differentiation. As a result, the overall difficulty for Week 7 is slightly reduced, which may diminish some of the edge we typically exploit. This shift is reflected in the tighter alignment between roster percentage projections and my own optimal lineup probabilities. With ownership projections sharper than usual, it’s critical to dive deeper and embrace more calculated risks to stand out in a competitive field.

Gaining Leverage on the Field

In cash games, the focus is on value projections, but in tournaments, the goal is to find the required edge to finish in the top 0.1% of the field. Here, we're looking for players with the highest chance of appearing in a tournament-winning lineup. The key is balancing their likelihood of being in an optimal lineup against their ownership percentages.

The primary focus of this article every week will be identifying the spots where the DFS consensus is underestimating the chances a player pops off for a big game. As DFS analysis and players have grown sharper over time, this has become more difficult. There is less "bad chalk" and fewer true sleepers. However, we are always going to dig deep to find the spots where we can gain and edge on our competition.

Big Picture View of the Slate

The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, we want to focus on players from teams expected to score a lot of points. This usually corresponds with higher popularity. However, a useful strategy for GPPs is identifying teams expected to score well but with lower collective ownership. The Bills and Dolphins stand out as two teams this week where the top options for each might deserve to be more popular than projected. Don't forget about James Cook and De'Von Achane when building your tournament lineups this week.  

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels is poised to be especially chalky this week, and for good reason. His blend of a strong passing floor, rushing upside, and an ideal matchup makes him a top-tier play. With Lamar Jackson off the main slate and several other elite quarterbacks facing tough matchups, Daniels' projection stands head and shoulders above the rest. Outside of him, it's hard to envision any other quarterback on this slate realistically putting up a monster 30-plus point performance.

What makes this slate unique is the lack of value across the board, making it more difficult to pay up for the top quarterbacks. The winning lineup may feature an inexpensive quarterback who scores in the 20-25 point range. Given that, we want to target rushing upside whenever possible, especially if it helps save salary. As such, it makes sense to sprinkle in some exposure to cheaper quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson, Tyler Huntley, and Daniel Jones, who offer rushing potential and could hit that valuable mid-tier point range.

Core Play

Jayden Daniels, Washington Football Team ($9100, vs CAR)

In the Footballguys consensus rankings, Daniels is projected to score over 3.5 points more than any other player on this slate, making him a standout option. He’s been a true dual-threat producer all season, throwing for at least 225 yards in each of his last five games while leading the NFL with an impressive 75.3% completion rate. On the ground, Daniels is just as dangerous, averaging 53 rushing yards and 0.7 rushing touchdowns per game.

Carolina’s defense presents an ideal matchup. Their pass defense is mediocre, but it’s their inability to stop the run that stands out—they’ve allowed 921 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this season. While Daniels will likely need to find the end zone with his legs to return value in GPPs at his salary, this is exactly the kind of matchup where he’s well-positioned to do so.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings ($7500, vs DET)

Darnold has been a fascinating fantasy option this season, showing a clear split between his first-half dominance and second-half drop-off. In the first half alone, he’s been lights out, averaging 23.7 FanDuel points per game (without any 3-point bonuses). However, his second-half production plummets to just 12.5 points per game. A big reason for this is that Minnesota hasn’t trailed in the second half all season, often playing from ahead and protecting large leads. If this game shoots out or Minnesota actually falls into an early hole for the first time this season, Darnold has potentially untapped upside.

Late last season, the Vikings faced the Lions twice with Nick Mullens under center. Despite losing both games due to turnovers, Mullens had significant success through the air, averaging 403.5 yards and 2 touchdowns per game. The Lions will be without their defensive anchor, Aidan Hutchinson, whose absence looms large. Hutchinson was in a tight race with T.J. Watt for Defensive Player of the Year, and much like the Steelers’ defense suffers without Watt, the Lions could face an even bigger decline. Their secondary is already mediocre, and without a pass rush to support it, they could be even more vulnerable. It's hard to see where Detroit generates pressure without Hutchinson, which could lead to a big day for Darnold.

Others to Consider

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons ($7200, vs SEA)

Cousins has shown his high ceiling, as evidenced by his massive 509-yard, four-touchdown performance in Week 5. That was also the only game where the Falcons' opponent scored more than 24 points. If you believe Seattle can put points on the board, Cousins could be forced into another high-volume passing game.

It’s also important to note that Seattle has faced one of the softest quarterback schedules in the NFL so far, with matchups against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, Skylar Thompson, Jared Goff, Daniel Jones, and Brock Purdy. As a result, their full-season defensive numbers are misleading. Over the past three weeks, the Seahawks have allowed at least 255 passing yards and multiple touchdowns to Goff, Jones, and Purdy, making this an exploitable matchup for Cousins.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants ($7000, vs PHI)

I'm looking for every opportunity to save salary this week, and a budget-friendly quarterback with a 20-point performance could be the key to topping the tournament leaderboard. Jones offers that upside, thanks to his rushing ability. After a slow start on the ground, Jones’ rushing volume and production have increased in the last two weeks, with 11 carries and an average of 47 rushing yards per game. If he can deliver another 50-yard rushing game and score on the ground, we'll be in great shape. The Giants offense also held its own without Malik Nabers, with Darius Slayton emerging as a deep threat and Tyrone Tracy Jr.. excelling at running back. Now, with Nabers back in the mix, the offense is more potent than it’s been in recent memory.

As for the Eagles, they allowed Baker Mayfield to rack up 357 total yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4 before rebounding against the Browns in Week 6 (following their bye). Philadelphia’s defense has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush and has vulnerabilities in the secondary, making them exploitable in the right matchup.

Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City Chiefs ($8000, vs SF)

Andy Reid is a master of preparation when given extra time. When his teams are coming off a bye week while the opponent isn’t, Reid has a remarkable 20-2 record. No coach takes better advantage of the additional time to fine-tune his game plan.

While the 49ers present a tough matchup—they've allowed just 16.6 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, the 13th fewest in the NFL—there are reasons for optimism. Geno Smith managed 312 passing yards against this defense last week, showing they’re not impenetrable. The Chiefs' offense hasn't been as dominant as in past seasons, but it’s still surprising to see Patrick Mahomes II, priced at just $8,000, projected for only 3% ownership. Mahomes threw for 331 yards in Week 5 and has added value with his legs, averaging 5.7 carries per game over the last three weeks, giving him some sneaky rushing upside.

Running Back

The projected percent rostered numbers at running back look sharp again this week, with the top point-per-dollar plays expected to be very popular. I’ve listed these top options as "Others to Consider" instead of "Core Plays" because, while they’re excellent choices, simply rostering them won’t help you separate from the field. We need to mix in some less popular options to gain an edge. Paying up for a player like Joe Mixon or James Cook—both with solid projections but likely to fly under the radar compared to the chalkier value plays—is a smart strategy.

While sub-$7K value is scarce this week, there are two cheaper backs worth strong consideration. One is De’Von Achane, who benefits from a solid Dolphins implied team total and faces a Colts defense that’s soft against the run. The other is Chase Brown, who has quietly emerged as the go-to option in Cincinnati’s backfield. Balancing exposure between these less popular plays and the more obvious top value options could help differentiate your lineups.

Core Play

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans ($8400, vs GB)

Mixon has been a workhorse in the two full games he’s played this season, rushing for over 100 yards in both. In Week 1, he racked up 159 yards on 30 carries, and last week he rushed for 102 yards on just 13 carries. His production could have been even higher if the Texans hadn’t jumped out to an early lead, allowing the Bengals to rest some starters late. With a highly anticipated matchup between two of the NFL’s best teams on tap, Mixon is set for another big workload.

Green Bay has struggled to contain elite running backs this season, giving up big games to Saquon Barkley (109 yards), Jonathan Taylor (103), Aaron Jones (93), and Kyren Williams (102).

Mixon’s median projection is similar to cheaper options like Chuba Hubbard, Ken Walker III, and Tony Pollard, which will naturally make those backs more popular. In tournaments, I’m willing to pay a slight premium for Mixon, as he’ll provide more unique roster construction and lower ownership—giving me a potential edge in large-field contests.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals ($6500, vs CLE)

The sub-$7K range at running back is weaker than it has been all season. As mentioned in the introduction, there are no significant late-breaking injury situations creating value, and very few viable backup running backs. This means we’ll need to target committee backfields if we want to save salary at the position. One standout option is Chase Brown in the Bengals backfield, which may be shifting away from a full committee. Brown and Zack Moss split touches evenly in Weeks 4 and 5, but in Week 6, Brown took control, playing 62% of the snaps. He’s also the more explosive option, averaging 5.55 yards per carry, and was just a holding penalty away from multiple touchdowns last week.

The Browns’ defense has been slightly above average against the run, allowing 18.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs. However, with morale in Cleveland at an all-time low, it's easy to envision a scenario where the Bengals take an early lead and grind down the Browns defense on the ground. Brown could be in for a big day if Cincinnati controls the game script.

Others to Consider

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers ($7400, vs WAS)

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams ($8600, vs LV)

Ken Walker III, Seattle Seahawks ($7500, vs ATL)

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans ($7100, vs BUF)

I won’t go deep into why these four running backs are strong plays—they all dominate their team’s backfield touches and have favorable matchups. Only Ken Walker III, who faces Atlanta, is up against a defense allowing fewer than 21 FanDuel points per game to opposing backs. If you’re entering multiple lineups, it’s important to have some exposure to each of these four. The challenge is that they’re likely to be popular. My gut tells me our projected roster percentages may be slightly conservative, and all four could easily be over 20% rostered, with Williams and Hubbard possibly closer to 30% in many tournaments. While we’ll need to “eat the chalk” to some extent, as these backs are popular for a reason, from a GPP strategy perspective, I plan to stay at or below the field on each. This allows room to diversify with players who have lower ownership but offer comparable upside.

Wide Receiver

Wide receiver is incredibly deep this week with plenty of strong options, but no clear standouts that tower above the rest. As a result, we don’t expect any receiver to top 20% ownership, which presents a great opportunity to build some uniqueness into our lineups. While top receivers like Justin Jefferson are in great spots, the real strength of this slate lies in the $7K range, where numerous strong plays exist.

I’m not impressed by the cheaper, salary-saving options at wide receiver this week. You could make a case for guys like JuJu Smith-Schuster or Noah Brown, but they don't offer much confidence. Personally, I’m aiming to find the salary to roster three solid wide receivers. That might mean taking a chance on a lower-priced running back or finding savings at quarterback, but it should pay off. There are too many mid-priced wideouts with legitimate 20-plus point potential to risk sinking your lineup with a single-digit score from one of your receivers.

Core Play

Tank Dell, Houston Texans ($7000, vs GB)

Malik Nabers, New York Giants ($8300, vs PHI)

Nabers is an elite talent, and his recent volume has been off the charts, averaging 15 targets per game over his last three outings and surpassing 78 receiving yards in each contest.

The Eagles' defense has consistently struggled against top wide receivers, allowing 85+ receiving yards to an opposing wideout in all but one game this season (and that exception came against the struggling Browns offense). Philadelphia is giving up 162 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers, the 8th most in the league.

From a narrative standpoint, there's added intrigue with the Giants, as their ownership was hesitant to let Saquon Barkley sign with a division rival. A way to ease that sting would be to watch their new franchise cornerstone, Nabers, have a breakout performance against a divisional foe like the Eagles.

Davante Adams, New York Jets ($6900, vs PIT)

Others to Consider

Drake London, Atlanta Falcons ($7500, vs SEA)

London may end up being the most popular wide receiver on the slate, which is the only reason he is not listed as a core play. He has emerged as a high-volume, elite WR1 in recent weeks. He has three straight games with at least 10 targets and has averaged 8.0 catches for 97.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game over that stretch. 

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings ($9400, vs DET)

I noted Sam Darnold's extreme 1st half/2nd half splits above. Justin Jefferson's splits are even more pronounced. He has 19 catches for 344 yards and four touchdowns in the first half of games with just seven catches for 106 yards and not touchdowns in the second half. If this key divisional matchup against the Lions remains tight throughout, Jefferson could have his first big second half of the season and put up a tournament winning score. The only think keeping Jefferson from being a core play is the salary. The lack of value on the slate makes fitting his $9,400 painful. 

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers ($7100, vs WAS)

The Commanders have given up some huge games to opposing wide receivers -- Mike Evans (5-61-2), Malik Nabers (10-127-1), Ja'Marr Chase (6-118-2), and Zay Flowers (9-132-0) each have had 20-plus point performances against the shaky Washington secondary. Johnson has averaged 10.7 targets per game since Andy Dalton took over as the starter. He is simply getting too much volume to be this cheap in a great matchup.

Tight End

This week at the tight end position, there are two distinct strategies, each on opposite ends of the salary spectrum. The first option is to pay up for one of the $7K-plus tight ends, like Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers, who are the focal points of their respective offenses. Both players have realistic chances to see 10+ targets and deliver a ceiling performance of 20+ FanDuel points. Kelce remains Patrick Mahomes II’ go-to weapon, and his ability to rack up targets and red zone opportunities makes him worth the high price tag. Similarly, Bowers has established himself as the top target in his offense, making him another high-upside option for those willing to pay up.

On the other hand, if you choose not to invest heavily at tight end, the best strategy is to save salary and target one of the tight ends priced in the $5K range. These cheaper options allow for flexibility elsewhere in your lineup, while still providing decent upside in favorable matchups. This approach helps maximize your cap space for other positions while still giving you a shot at value production from the tight end spot.

Core Play

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($7100, vs SF)

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders ($7000, vs LAR)

The Raiders' wide receiver corps is arguably the worst in the NFL, especially with Jakobi Meyers out due to injury. Their top options at wide receiver, Tre Tucker and DJ Turner, are far from proven, making this unit a significant weakness for Las Vegas. Given this lack of talent, it's no surprise that tight end Brock Bowers has emerged as the primary target in the passing game, averaging 11.0 targets per game since Davante Adams expressed his desire to leave the team.

Bowers is likely to continue seeing heavy volume this week, especially against a Rams defense that struggles to contain tight ends. The Rams are allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends, making Bowers a prime candidate for double-digit targets once again. With such a favorable matchup and a lack of competition for targets, Bowers is poised for another big performance.

Others to Consider

Grant Calcaterra, Philadelphia Eagles ($5100, vs NYG)

Grant Calcaterra stepped in for the injured Dallas Goedert last week and showed immediate chemistry with quarterback Jalen Hurts, his former college teammate from Oklahoma. Calcaterra played virtually every snap and hauled in four passes for 67 yards. As a pass catcher, Calcaterra offers a reliable receiving option and isn't a significant drop-off from Goedert in that role. What makes him an attractive DFS option this week is the price discount—he's approximately $1,500 cheaper than what Goedert would have cost in the same spot. This value, combined with his established connection with Hurts, makes Calcaterra a compelling play at tight end, especially for those looking to save salary while maintaining upside in their lineups.

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns ($5300, vs CIN)

Playing a pass catcher in the struggling Browns offense certainly comes with risk, but David Njoku offers intriguing value at his current price point. With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, Njoku could easily become Deshaun Watson's top target, and he's likely to see a significant share of the passing volume. Additionally, the Bengals have been vulnerable against tight ends, giving up the 10th most FanDuel points per game to the position. Njoku also has a history of solid performances against Cincinnati, including a 7-catch, 59-yard, 1-touchdown game in 2022. While the Browns' offensive struggles make any player in this offense a bit risky, Njoku’s potential workload and favorable matchup provide enough upside to make him a viable option at this salary.

Defense

Core Play

Los Angeles Rams, ($4100, vs LV)

As highlighted earlier, the Raiders' top wide receivers this week are Tre Tucker and DJ Turner, leaving quarterback Aiden O’Connell with few reliable weapons besides Brock Bowers. Combined with a shaky offensive line, O’Connell is in a difficult position, making it tough for the Raiders offense to perform well. Las Vegas has one of the lowest implied team totals of the week at just 18.2 points, the third lowest on the slate. Given this, the Rams defense—affordably priced—offers excellent value for DFS players. The combination of a struggling Raiders offense and the Rams’ solid matchup makes Los Angeles one of the best defensive plays this week.

Others to Consider

Miami Dolphins, ($3600, vs IND)

Anthony Richardson has thrown an interception on 6 of his 77 passing attempts this season, resulting in an alarming interception rate of 7.8%. With the Colts struggling in the running game without Jonathan Taylor and Richardson's own rushing ability potentially limited due to injury, he will need to rely on his arm against Miami. This increases the likelihood of turnovers, making it a risky situation for the Colts.

Minnesota Vikings, ($3900, vs DET)

The Vikings have been one of the top fantasy defenses this season, excelling in two critical areas: generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks and forcing turnovers at a high rate. Their aggressive defense has led to consistent fantasy production, regardless of opponent. While the Lions boast one of the better offenses in the league, the Vikings are well-equipped to slow down their strong running game and make Jared Goff try to win the game through the air, where Minnesota’s pass rush can create opportunities for sacks and turnovers.

This matchup is key because the Vikings' defensive strength aligns well with neutralizing the Lions’ balanced offensive attack. Slowing down Detroit's running game could force Goff into uncomfortable passing situations, and with Minnesota's ability to generate pressure, this sets up well for another strong fantasy outing.