The Week 6 DFS main slate underwent a major shift late in the week when news broke that both Rachaad White and Rhamondre Stevenson would miss their games. Their backups, Bucky Irving and Antonio Gibson, are now projected to be among the most popular plays on the slate, which changes the landscape at the running back position and significantly impacts roster construction. Both Irving and Gibson are priced in the mid-$5Ks, making them value plays that free up salary for higher-priced players, increasing the ownership percentages of top options like Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Ja'Marr Chase, and CeeDee Lamb. The value at running back creates a ripple effect in how other positions are approached in lineup building.

Injuries at other positions are another big storyline this week. Malik Nabers, for example, could have been the most popular wide receiver play had he cleared concussion protocol, but his absence elevates Giants’ receiver Wan’Dale Robinson to the most rostered player in tournaments.

Gaining Leverage on the Field

In cash games, the focus is on value projections, but in tournaments, the goal is to find the required edge to finish in the top 0.1% of the field. Here, we're looking for players with the highest chance of appearing in a tournament-winning lineup. The key is balancing their likelihood of being in an optimal lineup against their ownership percentages.

For instance, assume Wan’Dale Robinson has a 20% chance of being in a tournament-winning lineup, while Darius Slayton has a 10% chance. If Robinson is rostered by 25% of the field but Slayton is only in 5% of lineups, Slayton becomes the better tournament play despite the lower odds of success. He offers twice the leverage compared to his roster percentage, while playing someone like Robinson, despite projecting well, would be a losing proposition long term due to his higher ownership. In today’s DFS environment, finding small edges like this is how successful players gain an advantage over the competition.

This week, the opportunity to pivot from highly-rostered players to similarly priced alternatives is especially prominent. These leverage points, where we can swap one player for another to gain an edge on the field, are always a focus, but they’re particularly important in Week 6 given the clear spots where we can make those moves to boost our odds of building a top-tier lineup.

Big Picture View of the Slate

The table below ranks each team on the main slate by their implied team total. Generally, we want to focus on players from teams expected to score a lot of points. This usually corresponds with higher popularity. However, a useful strategy for GPPs is identifying teams expected to score well but with lower collective ownership. For instance, in Week 6, the Titans have the 9th-highest implied team total but only 30% projected ownership, most of which is at running back. Their pass catchers may be undervalued this week. The opposite can also be true. The Giants have the 12th-highest implied team total of the 22 teams on the main slate. However, we currently project the team to have the highest collective ownership (64%). This is a potential indicator of "bad chalk."

Quarterback

Based on the Footballguys' percent rostered projections, there are no significant edges at the quarterback position this week. The most popular quarterbacks—Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Joe Burrow—are also the ones with the best chances of being in winning lineups. You don’t need to be contrarian at every position, as that could be risky. I recommend building the vast majority of your lineups with these top options while sprinkling in a few less popular quarterbacks with rushing upside.

Core Plays

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($9,500, vs. Washington)

Jackson is a great play that does not need a lot of explanation. Aside from a relative stinker against the Raiders, Jackson has scored at least 23.6 fantasy points in every game. Jackson has had big games both on the ground (16 carries for 122 yards in Week 1) and the air (348 passing yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 5). Against a Commanders team that has been in some shootouts, this is an easy spot to get excited about.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles ($8,300, vs. Cleveland)

Jalen Hurts presents tremendous value this week due to his dual-threat ability. Hurts has been a consistent producer through the air, surpassing 250 passing yards in 11 of his last 18 games, while also scoring 30 total touchdowns in his last 36 games. This sets him up for a potential bounceback game, especially with key players like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and right tackle Lane Johnson returning to the lineup, providing the offense with a major boost. Although the Browns' defense has traditionally been strong, the team's recent offensive struggles have seemingly demoralized the entire unit. The overall state of the franchise suggests this could be a prime opportunity for Hurts and the Eagles to capitalize on a reeling Cleveland squad.

Others to Consider

Daniel Jones, New York Giants ($6,800, vs. Cincinnati)

Jones is priced too low given his favorable matchup against a struggling Bengals secondary. Cincinnati has allowed 10 passing touchdowns this season and will be without top cornerback Dax Hill, who tore his ACL midway through last week's loss to the Ravens. Additionally, Jones offers rushing upside, as he demonstrated last week by running for 38 yards against a solid Seahawks defense. The only concern is that Jones may be a popular pick, especially with Wan'Dale Robinson projecting as one of the most popular plays on the slate.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($8,000, vs. Detroit)

Dak Prescott has the highest passing yardage prop of the week (281.5). He has a good shot to hit the 300-yard bonus and throw for multiple touchdowns. He will need big passing numbers to land in an optimal lineup because he has shown very little rushing upside. The Detroit Lions' defense heading into Week 6 has been strong against the run, allowing just 90.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th in the NFL. However, their pass defense has been more vulnerable, giving up 258.3 passing yards per game, which ranks them 27th overall. This creates opportunities for opposing quarterbacks, particularly in the passing game. 

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,100, vs. New York Giants)

Joe Burrow has been on fire over the past three weeks, completing 81 of 108 passes for 948 yards, with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions. This hot streak, coupled with his ability to connect with Ja'Marr Chase, who excels at turning short passes into long touchdowns, makes Burrow a strong play against the Giants this week. 

Drake Maye, New England Patriots ($6,000, vs. Houston)

At a minimum price and projected ownership of less than 1%, Drake Maye is worth sprinkling into DFS lineups due to his rushing upside

During the 2024 preseason, Maye played 67 snaps across three games, completing 21 of 34 passes for 192 yards and a touchdown, while also adding 32 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. His dual-threat capability, particularly his mobility, makes him a sleeper candidate for this week's slate. Additionally, with the Texans missing key defensive backs Kwamie Lassiter II and Jimmie Ward, Maye could take advantage of a weakened secondary.

Running Back

Similar to quarterback, I believe the percent rostered projections for running backs are on point this week. Bucky Irving and Antonio Gibson are appealing sub-$6K options, as they’ve both looked strong in committee roles and now find themselves with expanded opportunities due to injuries to their respective starters. Another solid play is J.K. Dobbins, who, while priced a bit higher, should also see a boost in workload with Gus Edwards sidelined. These value backs make it easier to pay up for top-tier options like Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, both of whom have the potential to deliver slate-breaking performances. Additionally, some of the mid-tier backs, such as Josh Jacobs and Jahmyr Gibbs, could come in lower-owned than expected due to the value that has emerged at the lower price points. While the chalk options look strong, it's worth mixing in some contrarian plays as well, with Joe Mixon standing out as a sneaky option in a favorable matchup against New England. 

Core Plays

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,700, vs. New Orleans)

Bucky Irving is set to take on a larger role this week, stepping in for Rachaad White as the Buccaneers' starting running back. Irving has been impressive on the ground, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, and now he’ll get more opportunities in the running game with White sidelined. The big question is how much of White’s receiving work will transfer to Irving, as White had been averaging 3.4 catches for 25.4 yards per game, compared to Irving’s 1.6 receptions for 9.2 yards. The third-string running back, Sean Tucker, could also see an expanded role in the passing game.

The Bucs will be without top rookie offensive lineman Graham Barton, turning to Robert Hainsey at center, who has two seasons of starting experience, while Luke Goedeke returns from a five-game absence due to a concussion, providing an upgrade at right tackle. This should help Irving’s chances of success, particularly given the Saints' recent struggles against the run. Over their last three games, the Saints have allowed an average of 133 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry. Although they’ll get linebacker Willie Gay Jr. back, they remain without Pete Werner, and Demario Davis is still hampered by a hamstring injury, which could limit his effectiveness. This makes Irving an intriguing option with both rushing and potentially expanded receiving work.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers ($7,600, vs. Arizona)

Josh Jacobs is an appealing play this week that might go overlooked due to the slate dynamics. Fantasy managers tend to gravitate towards players with changing roles due to injuries, while Jacobs remains in his usual role. However, that consistency is not a negative—Jacobs has averaged 20.2 opportunities per game this season and played 75% of the snaps last week. This level of involvement provides a strong foundation for fantasy success.

The matchup is also ideal. The Packers, who are 5.5-point favorites, have the fourth-highest team total on the slate, indicating a game script that should favor running opportunities for Jacobs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have struggled against running backs, giving up 23.9 FanDuel points per game, which ranks seventh-most in the league. With steady usage and a favorable matchup, Jacobs is a solid play despite the lack of narrative-driven attention.

Others to Consider

Antonio Gibson, New England Patriots ($5,500, vs. Houston)

Antonio Gibson is poised to step into a nearly every-down role with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined. JaMycal Hasty, who has seen minimal playing time this season, will serve as the top backup, leaving Gibson in line for a significant workload. While the matchup and game script aren't particularly favorable, Gibson should see plenty of volume as long as the Patriots can move the ball and stay on the field. At his price point, it's unlikely that Gibson will sink your lineup, but the question remains whether he has enough upside to severely hurt you if you decide to fade him. The volume alone makes him a safe option, though the upside could be limited.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens ($9,100, vs. Washington)

The Ravens have the highest team total on the slate (29.2) and Washington is allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. The salary is difficult to fit in but we know how much upside Henry has in this Ravens offense. He has at least one touchdown in every game and has scored 16+ fantasy points in four straight games.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions ($7,800, vs. Dallas)

Jahmyr Gibbs is in a strong position this week, facing a Cowboys defense that has struggled against elite running backs this season. They allowed 115 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Alvin Kamara, as well as 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Derrick Henry. Gibbs has been consistent, rushing for at least 78 yards in each of his last three games. Lions head coach Dan Campbell has expressed growing confidence in Gibbs, saying, "Yeah, he's coming on... and it's been like that every week, there's been more and more of these [runs] that are this close... So, I would anticipate he's about to really take off." If Gibbs finally breaks a long run, as Campbell hints, he has the potential to win you a GPP tournament with a breakout performance.

J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers ($6,700, vs. Denver)

J.K. Dobbins faces a challenging matchup in Week 6 against the Denver Broncos, whose run defense has been solid, allowing just 111.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 10th in the league. Despite the tough matchup, Dobbins should see an increased workload with Gus Edwards out. So far this season, Dobbins has been the Chargers' most productive rusher, accumulating 342 yards on 56 carries (an average of 85.5 yards per game) and scoring two rushing touchdowns. The Chargers are healthier along their offensive line, which could help them get back to their dominant rushing form. Dobbins is also involved in the passing game, having caught 10 passes for 44 yards, giving him additional upside in a difficult matchup. With an expected increase in touches, Dobbins should still have solid fantasy value despite the tough defense.

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans ($8,300, vs. New England)

We have seen one full game of Mixon in this Houston offense and it was spectacular. He put up 178 yards and a touchdown on 33 touches in Week 1 before going down with an injury midway through the Week 2 game. He is now back from the ankle injury and it would not be a huge surprise if the Texans lean on him in a game they should control agaisnt the Patriots. At 3% projected ownership, this is the kind of dice roll worth making. If we knew for sure Mixon was fully healthy and would have his typical workload, he would be 20% owned in this spot.

Wide Receiver

This is where I’m going to take my stand this week. While projected percent rostered looks sharp at other positions, I see some clear opportunities for leverage at wide receiver. The four most popular wideouts this week—Wan'Dale Robinson, Drake London, Jayden Reed, and Terry McLaurin—are expected to dominate ownership. I’m comfortable being underweight on all four of them. For two of these players (Robinson and London), there are obvious pivots (Darius Slayton and Darnell Mooney) with lower ownership that have similar upside at a fraction of the ownership. This gives us a prime opportunity to differentiate our lineups in tournaments, especially when the crowd is gravitating toward these chalky options. If entering muliple lineups, try to limit ownership of the top guys to 10% or so. 

Core Plays

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys ($9,300, vs. Detroit)

The last time Lamb faced this Lions defense (Week 17 last season), he went absolutely bonkers. Lamb caught 13 of 17 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown. While the Lions made some solid secondary additions in the offseason, this is still a unit that looks vulnerable against good passing offenses. Detroit has given up the fourth-most FanDuel PPG to opposing wide receivers (36.5). 

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles ($8,100, vs. Cleveland)

In his only game in this new offense, A.J. Brown was heavily involved, seeing 10 targets, signaling his key role in the passing game. Given the suspiciously high implied team total, there is reason to believe this spot against the Browns is better than their defensive reputation would lead you to believe. It is also a nice stylistic matchup for Brown. Notably, he excels against man coverage, averaging an impressive 3.77 yards per route run, and the Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league. Additionally, with both starting safeties, Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman, sidelined for this game, Brown's GPP upside is even more enticing. The weakened Browns secondary presents a prime opportunity for Brown to exploit, making him a high-upside tournament play.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants ($5,900, vs. Cincinnati)

Darius Slayton is a strong pivot off of the Wan’Dale Robinson chalk.  With Malik Nabers being ruled out, Slayton was on the field for 88% of offensive snaps last week. He had a breakout game with eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. He is the type of big-play threat that has given the Bengals defense the most trouble. The Bengals will get slot cornerback Mike Hilton back, which should shore up the middle of the field defense. However, the lack of speed at Safety and shaky outside cornerback plays have been persistent themes for the struggling Cincinnati defense. 

Others to Consider

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals ($9,500, vs. New York Giants)

After holding out of training camp and starting the season slowly, Ja'Marr Chase has been unstoppable over his last three games, averaging 6.3 catches for 132 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game. He has topped 85 receiving yards in each of those outings, showcasing elite YAC skills. The Giants' defense, meanwhile, has shown inconsistency against top wideouts. While they managed to contain DK Metcalf to 4-55-0 in Week 5, they allowed 7-86-2 to Amari Cooper and 7-98-1 to CeeDee Lamb in recent weeks. With Chase's recent dominance, he is well-positioned to continue his hot streak against this up-and-down Giants secondary. 

Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons ($6,500, vs. Carolina)

Drake London will draw the majority of the attention and ownership in this wide receiver corps. Darnell Mooney makes for a strong pivot at a $900 discount. He has been every bit as productive as London. Since Week 2, Mooney has averaged 5.8 catches for 78.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns on 9.3 targets per game. London has faced the Panthers four times in his career and managed 93 yards total (23.3 per game). 

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8,200, vs. New Orleans)

This is a great opportunity to pivot from a highly-rostered player like Chris Godwin to a lower-owned option in Mike Evans, who may have even higher upside this week. While Evans' historical struggles against the Saints and Marshon Lattimore are well known, and have contributed to his low projected ownership, this week could present a different narrative. The Saints' slot cornerback, Alontae Taylor, has arguably been their best defender this season and will be primarily covering Godwin. This tough matchup for Godwin makes Evans a more intriguing play, as his big-play potential always gives him the ability to turn a game around, even in a challenging spot. By flying under the radar, Evans becomes an excellent contrarian pivot for DFS lineups.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans ($6,000, vs. Indianapolis)

Calvin Ridley is in a prime spot this week against the Colts, who have allowed 5+ catches and over 100 receiving yards to outside wide receivers in three consecutive games. This presents an ideal opportunity for Ridley to get back on track. The Titans have faced the toughest pass defense schedule through the first five weeks, which has contributed to the poor receiving stats of Ridley and the other top targets. Ridley could thrive in this matchup, especially since the Titans have the ninth-highest team total on the slate. At just 3% projected ownership—possibly even lower if my hunch is correct—Ridley offers significant upside as the team's WR1. Jaguars head coach Brian Callahan emphasized the need to get Ridley more involved, saying, "We need to use his speed and explosiveness more... We need to find a way to get him going." This makes Ridley a high-upside, low-ownership play this week.

Tight End

This is a good week to pay up at tight end. There may not be an elite tight end on the slate, but there are a number of strong options priced in the $6,000-$7,000 range. I suspect at least one of the Top 6 -- Dallas Goedert, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, Jake Ferguson, and Tucker Kraft -- breaks out for 20+ fantasy points. If so, it will likely be difficult to take down a GPP without that player.

Core Plays

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders ($6,700, vs. Pittsburgh)

The matchup is rough. Las Vegas has a team total of 16.8 against a talented Steelers defense. However, Pittsburgh will be missing two of its best pass rushers and gave up nine catches for 98 yards to the Cowboys tight ends last week. Plus, Bowers is the clear top target in this Raiders offense. You cannot say that about any other tight end on this slate. With Davante Adams and Michael Mayer out and Jakobi Meyers banged up, Bowers should see a boatload of targets.

Others to Consider

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions ($6,300, vs. Dallas)

I want to have exposure to this Lions-Cowboys game and the tight end position is a good avenue to get that exposure. Jake Ferguson has a higher floor than LaPorta but is expected to be at least twice as popular. LaPorta is off to a slow start after a monster rookie season. Some of that may have been due to his playing through injury the first few weeks. At some point, we have to expect LaPorta to have a big game.

Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers ($6,000, vs. Arizona)

Over the past two weeks, Kraft has 10 catches for 141 yards and 3 touchdowns. He has emerged as one of Jordan Love's favorite targets. The Cardinals gave up eight catches for 64 yards and a touchdown to George Kittle last week.

Defense

Core Plays

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,700, vs. New Orleans)

The Buccaneers defense has been nothing special this week but is starting to get healthier. This is all about the matchup. The Saints will be forced to start fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler. In college, Rattler was a gunslinger who made some big throws but also was careless with the ball. The Saints also have the fifth-lowest team total on the slate, which makes the $3,700 price tag especially attractive.

Others to Consider

Atlanta Falcons ($3,800, vs. Carolina)

The Panthers offense has been solid since Andy Dalton took over but still ranks as the seventh-best matchup for opposing defenses on the season. The Falcons are healthy favorites, which is what we always look for at defense. This is another strong salary-saving option.

Philadelphia Eagles ($4,800, vs. Cleveland)

The Eagles are big home favorites against a Cleveland offense that is struggling mightily and has the worst overall vibes in the league.