I miss the good old days of DFS when overlay was easy to find if you knew where to look. Overlay, in daily fantasy sports, refers to the extra money added to a contest’s prize pool by the site when there aren’t enough entries to cover the guaranteed payouts. It was easy to make lineups with positive expected value (+EV) when contests were 80% full and the rakes were not exorbitant. Times have changed, but there is a FanDuel tournament this year that feels like a throwback to better days. 

More on that in a minute. First, let's take a look at the stats of DFS in general in 2024. There is good news and bad news for those still trying to make money from playing DFS on FanDuel. Let's start with the bad news:

Why DFS is harder than ever

Several factors have made DFS more challenging over the years. There are three I want to highlight this week:

1. Overlay has virtually disappeared. As the industry consolidated and matured, offering overlay to attract new users became a losing proposition for the few remaining large DFS sites. Plus, the site operators have a decade's worth of data about fill rates to more accurately size contests. 

2. Rakes are higher. These same market shifts led to an increase in the rake—the site’s cut of each contest. Let's look at FanDuel's signature weekly contest. The entry fee for FanDuel's $1.6M NFL Sunday Million contest this week is $15. With 126,985 entries, FanDuel will collect entry fees of 126,985 * $15 = $1,904,775. However, the contest guarantees a prize pool of $1,600,000. To find the rake, we subtract the guaranteed prize pool from the total entry fees: $1,904,775 - $1,600,000 = $304,775. The rake percentage is calculated by dividing the rake by the total entry fees, resulting in ($304,775 / $1,904,775) * 100 ≈ 16%. This 16% rake is the fee FanDuel collects for hosting the tournament, which directly impacts the overall expected value for each player. Since players are paying $15 to enter but the average return is only $12.60 ($1,600,000 / 126,985), each entry has a negative expected value of -$2.40.

3. Most GPPs have top-heavy payout structures. Many people (myself included) are attracted to contests with big first-place prizes. It is more fun to turn on the Red Zone Channel on Sunday when you know you at least have a chance of winning $100,000. It is why in past years I have liked the $55 Sunday Bomb ($100K to First) contest on FanDuel. For the $55 entry fee contest, the non-1st place prize pool is $200,000 after subtracting the $100,000 reserved for the top spot. With 6,417 total entries, the expected value for each entry based solely on non-1st place prizes is approximately $31.17 ($200,000 / 6,417). Given the $55 entry fee, this results in a negative expected value of -$23.83 for entries that do not win the top prize, highlighting how the top-heavy payout structure impacts overall returns. If you enter this contest and do not get first place, you should expect to lose about 43% of your entry fees. 

My Favorite FanDuel Tournament

That was all a bit depressing, but I did promise good news after the bad. Let's talk about my favorite 2024 DFS contest. It flips all of the negatives detailed above upside down. 

In the $700K Sun NFL Rush (Top 50% Paid!) GPP, each of the 210,000 entries costs $3, totaling $630,000 in entry fees. Since the contest guarantees a $700,000 prize pool, FanDuel actually contributes an additional $70,000 to cover the difference, meaning there is no rake; instead, there’s an effective overlay. It's like the good old days!

The top prize is $70,000, leaving $630,000 for other payouts. With 210,000 entries, the expected value (EV) for each entry is $700,000 / 210,000 = $3.33, providing a positive EV of $0.33 per entry. To put it differently, the rake is negative 11%. 

The contest is not top heavy, paying out half of all entries. Even for those who do not win first place, the expected value from the remaining $630,000 in prizes matches the total entry fees, which means your expected payout from a single entry, if you don't win first place, is exactly $3. In other words, if you don’t take the top spot, you can still expect to break even on average.

Game Selection for GPP Players

Contest selection is hugely important. My advice: If you are playing about $10 of DFS each week, you should enter this contest 3 times. If you are playing about $100, enter this contest 33 times. If you are playing about $500 each week, max enter (150) this contest and then throw an entry into the Bomb. You get the idea. This should be the first contest you enter each week. At the very end of this week's article I added a note about my game selection and how it has led to my best September results since 2021. 

Please pardon the long intro this week. I thought the above contest was so compelling it deserved to be highlighted.  Now, let's get into the slate breakdown. 

Slate Overview

This week, I want to focus a bit more than usual on strategy and spotting spots where we can get an edge on the competition based upon projected percent rostered (aka "ownership %"). One way to view ownership is through a team lens and comparing implied team totals to how popular we expect players from each team to be. In the table below (split into two separate images), we see each team ranked by their implied team total. The percentages are the total percent rostered from each team at the position. For example, the 49ers trio of Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings is projected to combine for 20% ownership. 

My big takeaways from the table are that the Jaguars, Texans, and Bengals project to be less popular than their team totals would indicate. For the Texans, Cam Akers may rise in the next projected percent rostered but there is potential for value here. A player like Tank Dell is not projected to be a popular play despite a solid salary ($6,000) and a decent spot against the Bills. Nobody is on the Jaguars despite their having the fifth-highest team total on the slate. Some other teams stand out negatively. The Panthers have a team total of 18.2 but still are expected to have some popular plays. I like fading their pass ctatchers this week. The Commanders have been on fire but the Browns defense is a much tougher matchup than the defenses faced on their recent hot streak. Fade the chalky Commanders options like Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.

Quarterbacks

As mentioned above, I am looking to be underweight the field on Jayden Daniels. The Browns defense is a tough matchup and the Commanders hot streak is going to make their top options especially popular. We do want as much rushing upside as possible, however. Lamar Jackson is a great play in a plus matchup against the Bengals. Joe Burrow is another strong play on the opposite side of the field from Jackson. The Bengals-Ravens matchup has shootout potential and, as noted above, the top Bengals options are not expected to be as popular as their implied team total would suggest they should be. Justin Fields is going slightly overlooked in the Sunday night matchup against the Steelers. With their top pass rushers out, the Cowboys defense is not as tough as their reputation would indicate. With Jordan Mason expected to be as popular in Week 5 as any player has been all season, the 49ers passing game makes for a nice pivot. If San Francisco scores three or four touchdowns through the air,  Purdy could be the top scoring quarterback on the slate and you have leverage on the rest of the field. 

Core Plays

Lamar Jackson, BAL ($8,800 vs. CIN)

Lamar Jackson has had some big rushing games against the Bengals and provides a solid leverage option over the highly popular Derrick Henry. Additionally, few are considering his pass catchers, making Jackson even more appealing for tournament stacking. While the Bengals' defense seems to be improving with reinforcements arriving on the defensive line, their secondary still has significant issues. Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, once considered the reliable piece in their defensive backfield, struggled so much against the Panthers last week that he was benched after allowing five catches for 84 yards, a touchdown, and a holding penalty. The defense may not be as bad as the numbers look against the run now that the defensive line is starting to get healthy, but there are still plenty of issues in the secondary. 

Joe Burrow, CIN ($7,800 vs. BAL)

The Bengals' offensive line is performing exceptionally well, allowing the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Rookie right tackle Amarius Mims has impressed since his Week 3 debut, while veteran Orlando Brown Jr. is playing at a career-best level. The stability of their interior line, with the same three starters for three seasons, has contributed to this strong performance. With Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins finding their form, the Bengals' passing game is in sync. The Ravens' defense is only average against quarterbacks in fantasy (17th), and they recently allowed 379 passing yards to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in their last road game. At 2% projected ownership in a must-win home game, sign me up for taking some shots on Burrow and the Bengals top receivers. Burrow has also had two of the team's seven red zone carries over the last three games. 

Others to Consider

Jordan Love, GB ($8,200 vs. LAR)

The Packers rarely score on the ground, averaging just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game, which boosts the value of Jordan Love in this matchup. Love has thrown at least two touchdown passes in 12 of his last 13 games and now faces a Rams defense allowing the 6th most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks. Despite playing only two games this season, Love has posted impressive numbers, leading all quarterbacks with an average of 25.8 FanDuel points per game. His target tree has narrowed with the injury to Christian Watson and the questionable status of Romeo Doubs. Packers passing stacks are not exactly contrarian but the matchup and outstanding pricing on his top receiving options make it worth eating some chalk given the upside.

Brock Purdy, SF ($7,700 vs. ARI)

As noted above, Jordan Mason is likely to be incredibly popular, which makes the 49ers' passing game a great pivot. If San Francisco finds the end zone three or four times through the air, Brock Purdy could easily emerge as the top-scoring quarterback on the slate, giving you crucial leverage over the rest of the field. Heading into Week 5, Purdy ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (1,130) and leads the league in yards per attempt (9.26), further enhancing his appeal. The yardage has been there, he just needs some touchdown luck as he is averaging 1.25 per game. Given his past touchdown rates, he is due for some positive regression.

Justin Fields, PIT ($7,600 vs. DAL)

The Cowboys-Steelers game, which opened at 41.5 points and has since risen to 43.5, offers sneaky shootout potential. Steelers quarterback Justin Fields has shown significant improvement as a passer this season, ranking 7th in completion percentage (70.6%) and maintaining a low interception rate (0.98%). He’s also getting the ball out much faster than last season. With the Cowboys missing key defensive players Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, Fields makes for an exciting Sunday night hammer. His rushing ability gives him elite tournament upside. In fact, Fields has scored 48.1% of the Steelers fantasy points on the ground over the past three weeks. That is the highest of any quarterback who has played more than one game: