Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 20: Tennessee Titans

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When the Titans earned playoff berths from 2019 to 2021, they did so by running the ball and playing great defense. Over the last two seasons, that formula did not work so well, largely because the defense began slipping. They were still good, but not enough to carry the team.

The run defense held up in 2022 tying for the fewest yards per carry. It remained strong in 2023 as well, slipping to fourth in that category and 13^th in yards surrendered. It is the pass defense that has regressed significantly. In 2023 Tennessee allowed 7.7 yards per attempt. Only the Bengals and Lions gave up more. The pass rush got home a solid 45 times, but the Titans managed a league-low six interceptions and were 31^st in total turnovers.

Defensive Linemen

Odd-front defenses normally rely on the edge positions to supply the pass rush. The Titans got 26.5 sacks from their interior linemen in 2022 and 19 from those positions last year. After recording 19 of those 35.5 sacks, Denico Autry will be suiting up for the division-rival Texans. That production will be difficult to replace. The team had no one waiting in the wings to take over so they signed Sebastian Joseph-Day.

A sixth-round pick of the Rams in 2019, Joseph-Day is a five-year starter in the league, covering three teams. He should be a bit of an upgrade over Autry versus the run, but with eleven career sacks, Joseph-Day is a big step down as a pass rusher.

From the IDP perspective, Joseph-Day could have surprising value in this system. He is productive in the tackles columns, totaling 35-19-1 in 2020. He followed that season with a 2021 campaign that had him on pace to go 46-30-6 when injury struck. Joseph-Day moved to the Chargers in 2022, where he once again exceeded 50 combined tackles but added just 2 sacks. His 2023 season was split between the Chargers and 49ers and resulted in the lowest tackle totals of his career, but he managed to tie his career best of three sacks.

The reasons I am optimistic about Joseph-Day with the Titans are the scheme and the production of the players in it. During Autry's three seasons there, he put up the first and third-highest tackle total of his ten-year career, along with three of his four best sack totals. Tennessee runs an aggressive, penetrating, one-gap attack that allows linemen to make plays instead of strapping them with space-eating responsibilities. If there is a place that can bring out better numbers from Joseph-Day, this is it.  

There is no need to speculate when it comes to Jeffrey Simmons. He is one of the best in the NFL at the position and is among the most dependable options in the game for IDP managers. It took the 2019 first-round pick a couple of years to get going. He hit his stride in 2021. That season Simmons was 43-12-8.5 with six batted passes and a rank of sixth among tackles. He followed that with 54 combined stops, 7.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and seven pass breakups in 2022 for a rank of twelfth.

Simmons missed the final five games of 2023 with a sprained knee. When he was injured in week thirteen, he ranked fourth among tackles. Simmons has recovered from the sore knee and at age 26, is set to be a perennial top-twelve IDP option for the next several years.  

The Titans had several players see snaps at their nose tackle position last year. In 2024, most of that playing time should go to rookie T'Vondre Sweat. The second-round pick is a six-foot-four, 366-pound mountain. He is not quick, fast, or athletic but will demand double teams on virtually every snap, and most of those will still not move him.

There is not much technique involved when Sweat rushes the passer. Instead, he will use brute force and a long reach to collapse the pocket and blot out the middle of the field. Sweat will see most of his action on early downs but could get more snaps than most nose tackles. His impact on games can be huge while his contributions in the box scores might be limited. That said, Sweat totaled 45 tackles and 2 sacks in his final season at Texas.

 Marlon Davidson is the next man up at the three-technique positions, while Keondre Coburn is the favorite to spell Sweat when he needs a breather. Neither of these guys has much experience, and no future starters are waiting in the wings. An injury to any of the starters could be a problem.

In Harold Landry III, the Titans have an outstanding three-down edge defender and an excellent IDP target. He missed all of 2022 with an ACL injury. In every other season since his rookie campaign in 2018, Landry has at least 44 solo tackles and 21 assists. Landry averaged six sacks over his first three years in the league but has 22.5 over his last two.

The strong tackle production alone is enough to give Landry some value. Consistent double-digit sack totals make him an every-week starter for us. He slipped into the top twelve in 2021 and ranked fifteenth in 2023. Now that he is two seasons removed from the injury, Landry is a candidate for the top ten.

The Titans need a bookend for Landry but that will have to wait for another offseason. For now, they will continue to go with journeyman Arden Key. The 2018 third-round pick spent three seasons with the Raiders before starting a three-team tour that included stops in San Francisco, Jacksonville, and now Tennessee. He is a steady veteran placeholder who will contribute but has limited upside.

Key has never exceeded 30 combined stops or 6.5 sacks in a season. He was 17-13-6 with a pair of forced fumbles as the starter opposite Landry last season. With the help of the scheme and a strong supporting cast, it would not be a surprise to see the best numbers of his career in 2024. That does not necessarily mean they will be good enough to make Key roster-worthy for IDP managers.

With Key as the best option opposite Landry, the team is short on quality depth at the position. Rashad Weaver served as the third man last season and is in line for those duties again. The Titans 2021 fourth-round pick missed his rookie season with a broken leg but showed promise in year two. With Landry out, Weaver took on the lead role on the edge, going 18-9-5 with 3 turnovers and 6 batted passes on a team-high 640 snaps at the position. Instead of taking the next step in 2023, he was replaced as a starter by Key and went 11-9-0 on 240 plays.       

The closest thing to competition for Weaver is second-year undrafted free agent Caleb Murphy, who played four snaps last year, and seventh-round rookie Jaylen Harrell who could see a few snaps as a nickel or dime rush specialist. TK McLendon is a tweener who could see some early down action on the edge.   

• Edge Harold Landry – Quality second starter with a little upside
• Edge Arden Key – Marginal impact expected
• Edge Rashad Weaver – Injury sleeper with marginal potential
• Edge Kaleb Murphy – No impact
• Edge Jaylen Harrell – No impact
• DT Jeffery Simmons – Solid DT1
• DT Sebastian Joseph-Day – Sleeper with DT2 potential
• DT Marlon Davidson – Injury sleeper at best
• DT TK McLendon Jr. – No impact
• NT T'Vondre Sweat – Watchlist rookie with no grand expectations
• NT Keondre Coburn – No impact