Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 6: San Francisco 49ers

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For the third consecutive season, the 49ers played championship-caliber defense. San Francisco finished among the top ten in virtually every important category. The pass defense tied for the league lead with 22 interceptions, their pass rush tied for seventh with 48 sacks, and they allowed the eighth fewest points through the air. The team's 14th-place finish in passing yards was their only mediocre ranking, and that only happened because they were ahead on the scoreboard most of the time, so opponents threw against them 621 times. Only two teams faced more pass attempts. The run defense was also stout, allowing the third-fewest yards and the tenth-fewest points on the ground. About the only thing this defense did not do well was force and recover opponents' fumbles.

Despite the unit's strong play, the organization made several roster changes on the defensive side of the ball. Four of the new faces could be in line for big roles right out of the gate.

Defensive Linemen

One of those new faces is Leonard Floyd who is set to start opposite Nick Bosa on the edge. Floyd spent his first four seasons with Chicago, where the 2016 ninth-overall pick was rather disappointing. The move to Los Angeles in 2020 resuscitated his career. Over three seasons with the Rams, Floyd totaled 29 sacks and forced six turnovers. He spent last season with Buffalo where he added another ten and a half sacks, giving him four consecutive campaigns with at least nine.

On the field, Floyd is not an elite player, is not going to make the Pro Bowl, and is not going to win a sack title. He does, however, give San Francisco a dependable eight-year veteran who will be a substantial and consistent contributor.

For IDP managers, there is more to think about when considering the value of Floyd. He provided good numbers during the stint with Los Angeles, putting up at least 31 solo stops and no fewer than 55 combined, along with at least 9 sacks, in each of those seasons. A lot of IDP managers will only look at last year's numbers (21-11-10.5) and undervalue Floyd. What they won't consider is that Buffalo rotates a lot of players. In the three years with Los Angeles, he never played fewer than 933 snaps. Last season Floyd logged 628 while no other Buffalo lineman played more than 659. Meanwhile, in San Francisco, Bosa played more than 75% of the snaps in eleven games while averaging about 80% on the season. The moral of this story is that Floyd will have a lot more opportunities than last year. He should be at least a strong third man and likely a solid Edge2.

It does not take a lot of research or speculation to figure out Nick Bosa, who is elite from both NFL and fantasy perspectives. Throw out 2020 when he missed virtually the entire season and you get a player who averages 37 tackles, 14 assists, 13.5 sacks, and better than 4 turnovers. He is a perennial top twelve edge defender and unlike Floyd, is a threat to win a sack title, especially now that his supporting cast has been improved.

When the 49ers used a second-round pick on Drake Jackson in 2022, they envisioned a player who would be an immediate contributor and a long-term starter. The organization has not given up on the second half of that vision but so far it is not looking good.

Jackson had a limited role as a rookie, totaling 14 combined stops and 3 sacks on 315 snaps. He was off to a great start in year two, getting to Steelers quarterbacks three times in the opener before vanishing. Jackson recorded one tackle and three assists the rest of the way, before landing on IR with a knee injury after week eight. He is just 23 years old but the addition of Floyd sends a clear message that the team will not be waiting for him. This could be a make-or-break year for Jackson. He needs to step up and claim the third spot in the rotation at the very least. Considering his competition, that should be an attainable goal. Yetur Gross-Matos, Austin Bryant, and Robert Beal Jr. make up the rest of the depth chart. Short of injuries, it would be a shock if any of those guys land a steady role.

There was a time when the 49ers gave us one of the fantasy game's elite options at tackle. That ended when the team elected to move on from DeForest Buckner after the 2019 season. Since that time, they have thrown both high draft picks and significant free-agent capital at the position with marginal success.

After another disappointing season in 2023, the team finally gave up on 2020 first-round pick, Javon Kinlaw, . Arik Armstead had a big year in 2019 along with Buckner but was never the same after Buckner left. He will be playing in Jacksonville this year.

The organization threw a lot of money at the position last season, signing Javon Hargrave on the heels of the best season of his career. His first year with the team was, inconsistent at best. The 49ers paid for the 60 total stops and 11 sacks Hargrave recorded in 2022. What they got for their money was respectable overall at 44 tackles and 7 sacks but there were a lot of weeks that he was virtually invisible.

In his defense, Hargrave played part of the season with a thumb injury and had a sore hamstring late in the year. After plummeting from the top five in many formats in 2022, to around 25th in 2023, many IDP managers are left with a bad taste. Keep in mind that there are slim pickings at this position and the fact is, Hargrave is one of the game's better options for us. We should not count on a return to the top ten but he is a safe target as a priority DT2.

To fill the second and third spots in the tackle rotation, San Francisco added free agents Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott this off-season. Collins projects as the other starter opposite Hargrave with Elliott expected to battle Kevin Givens for the third spot. Collins has shown potential at his previous stops but has never managed to string together a complete season of quality production. Outside of Hargrave, make someone show us something before committing a roster spot.

• DE Nick Bosa – Perennial top-12 with top-5 potential
• DE Leonard Floyd – Solid second starter or excellent depth
• DE Drake Jackson – Watchlist sleeper
• DE Yetur Gross-Matos – No impact expected
• DE Austin Bryant – No impact
• DE Robert Beal Jr. – Developing player in his second season
• DT Javon Hargrave – Priority DT2 at a thin position
• DT Maliek Collins – Worth keeping an eye on when the season starts
• DT Kevin Givens – No impact
• DT Jordan Elliott – No impact

Linebackers

In last year's column, I stated there was no guesswork with the San Francisco linebackers. That statement is still true when Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are healthy. Warner is the man in the middle and Greenlaw has quietly become one of the league's better, yet most underrated weak-side linebackers.

Warner was a third-round steal in 2018 and quickly became one of the league's best linebackers. There is no weakness to his game. He has sideline-to-sideline range and a knack for making his way through traffic. Warner can stack and shed blockers with the best, rarely misses a tackle, and is one of the game's better coverage linebackers.

Last year I wrote that Warner falls short of the elite tier but is exceptionally consistent week-to-week and year-to-year. I'll continue to stand by that position for now but if he repeats last year's showing, a re-evaluation will be necessary.

Between 2022 and 2023, Warner reached double-digit points in 25 games, falling below eight point only three times in two seasons. He has at least 79 solo stops and no fewer than 118 combined tackles in all six seasons as a pro, with highs of 90 and 138 respectively. Warner can even be counted on for a handful of big plays each year. Before 2023, his best fantasy season was in 2019 when he finished seventh among linebackers. His lowest ranking of 17th came as a rookie in 2018, and he was 15th in 2022.

Warner's tackle production was normal last year at 82 solos and 50 assists but he exploded in the big play columns. The eight turnovers were a career-best, as were his eleven pass breakups, and he threw in the usual pair of sacks to slide into the second spot in the final linebacker rankings. It's hard to say if this is just a particularly strong season among a career of really good ones, or if it was the beginning of a special run. What we know for certain is that Warner is 27 years old and in the prime of a great career. If you pick him as your LB1, there is no danger. If you can land him as your LB2, there is a lot of upside.

The guesswork comes into play with Greenlaw's health. Many of us remember the fluke Achilles injury he suffered when running onto the field during last year's playoffs. Players often come back from Achilles injuries in time for the following season. Because Greenlaw went down so late, his chances of being ready for week one are slim.

While Greenlaw is expected to play at some point in the campaign, The team is not taking any chances while their window to win a championship is open. They signed De'Vondre Campbell to fill the void for as long as necessary.

Campbell is a quality starter with a ton of experience. He can play either of the linebacker positions, makes a lot of plays in the run game, and is strong in coverage. He is not exactly a playmaker but will contribute to those columns. In short, he appears to be the perfect fit for the situation. Campbell's IDP value has fluctuated throughout his career. He has finished everywhere from the low LB3 range in 2020 to third in the rankings in 2021.

It is widely expected that Greenlaw will open the season on the PUP list. That means Campbell will start at least the first six games. Considering the 49ers are one of the few teams that still have two full-time linebackers, Campbell should give us quality numbers early on at the least. If he plays well, there will be no need for Greenlaw to rush his rehab, allowing him to get fully healthy before returning.

There is a red flag here to consider. If the team decides to ease Greenlaw back into action over several weeks, this could be messy for IDP managers. I would suggest that if you roster either of these guys, try to get them both and hope for some cut-and-dry answers when the time comes.

• MLB Fred Warner – Solid LB1 with top-five potential
• WLB Dre Greenlaw – Quality LB2 if healthy but may not get there this year
• WLB De'Vondre Campbell – Solid LB3 when playing full-time
• SLB Ezekiel Turner – No impact expected
• SLB Tatum Bethune – Developmental rookie
• MLB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles – No impact
• WLB Curtis Robinson – Special teams contributor

Defensive Backs

What a difference a scheme makes. Charvarius Ward spent his first four years as a pro, with the Chiefs. During those years his IDP value was marginal at best. In two years with San Francisco, he ranked eighth among corners in 2022 and third last season.

With at least 48 solo stops in each of the last three seasons, Ward's strong tackle totals are not in question. The career best of 5 interceptions and 23 passes defended, however, are a different story. Ward had never recorded more than 2 picks or 12 pass breakups in any season before last year. Even if he falls back to earth a bit, Ward is a good target as a low CB1, and we may not have seen his best production yet.

Many NFL teams give us no quality IDP targets at the corner position. San Francisco gives us two. With an average just shy of nine points per game, Deommodore Lenoir was the 17th-ranked corner in 2023. Unlike his teammate who made a lot of hay in the splash play columns, most of Lenoir's value came from tackles where his 57 solos were tied for ninth at the position and his 25 assists ranked second. Lenoir was not without big play production. His three picks and ten passes defended certainly helped. He was 54-25 in tackles as a first-time starter in 2022 so those numbers appear to be his norm. Considering his big play numbers doubled from 2022 to 2023, there is reason to be optimistic about his prospects for the upcoming season. At worst Lenoir should make a decent CB2.

Second-round pick Renardo Green is a sticky press corner with good speed. Excellent agility and body control helps him to stay in the receiver's back pocket through quick breaks and double moves. Green's versatility allows him to work on the outside or over the slot and should help him get on the field early. His skill set could allow Green to become one of those IDP-friendly slot guys who move around and are put in positions to make a lot of plays.

The rookie corner rule is on Green's side but the lack of statistical production in college is a bit of a concern. In 26 games as a starter for Florida State, he compiled 101 combined tackles and 18 passes defended but put just one interception in the turnover columns.

The rest of the depth chart includes several veterans. Ambry Thomas, Isaac Yiadom, Rock Ya-Sin, and Samuel Womack III are all in the mix for subpackage duties. There will be a heated competition to establish the lower half of the pecking order. None of these guys are likely to see more than part-time action unless there are injuries.

When it comes to fantasy value, there were a lot of lean years where we got virtually nothing from the 49ers safeties. Talanoa Hufanga broke that trend when he was the fantasy game's number four safety in 2022. His tackle totals were somewhat modest at 66-31 but Hufanga has a knack for the big play. Nine pass breakups, six turnovers, a pair of sacks, and a score, catapulted him into the fantasy limelight.

Hufanga had some hiccups early in 2023 but righted the ship and was on the way to another productive season when an ACL injury shut him down in week eleven. There is optimism that he will be able to return in time for the season but we will have to monitor the situation once camp opens. Even if he can play, there is no guarantee he will be comfortable enough to turn it loose.

The 49ers were short on depth at safety even if Hufanga's health were not a concern, so they used a fourth-round pick on Malik Mustapha. He may not be the same level of big play threat, but Mustapha is a thick, compact strong safety who plays downhill in run support and is good in short zone coverages. He was fairly productive over 22 starts for Wake Forest in the last two years, totaling 77 tackles, 61 assists, 4 sacks, and a pair of turnovers. If Hufanga is not ready, Mustapha could become a surprisingly productive option for us.

With Tashaun Gipson out of the picture, the coaching staff is looking for more from the deep safety position. Ji'Ayir Brown was arguably the best safety in the 2023 draft class. He is a versatile defensive back who can play in the box, as a single deep, or over the slot with equal success. Keeping in mind that Hufanga is also capable of playing either safety spot, the team could throw some sort of junk ball at us here. What we need to know is who will be working as the box safety and who will draw the deep role. If everyone is healthy, they might be used interchangeably, making the fantasy value of either player a tough call.

• SS Talanoa Hufanga – Quality second starter with big-play upside if fully healthy
• FS Ji'Ayir Brown – High ceiling if the role is right
• SS George Odum – No impact
• SS Malik Mustapha – Rookie with the skill set to be productive
• CB Charvarius Ward – Target as a priority CB2 with high CB1 upside
• CB Deommodore Lenoir – Decent CB2 or excellent CB3
• CB Renardo Green – Rookie corner rule could be in play
• CB Ambry Thomas – No impact
• CB Samuel Womack III - No impact
• CB Isaac Yiadom – No impact

That does it for this offering. Next up, Seattle Seahawks.

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