Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 25: New York Jets

Photo: Imagn Images

The Jets went 7-9 last year, but how good could they have been if they had not lost Aaron Rodgers in week one? Let’s just say that the defense did its job. New York gave up a lot of yards on the ground, but that was only because they faced the third-highest rush attempts. Their 4.1 yards per carry was tied for tenth, and they ranked in the top half of the league in runs of 20+ yards and rushing touchdowns.

While the run defense was above average, the Jets’ pass defense was downright stingy. Two teams gave up fewer yards, they ranked fourth in yards per attempt, and third in completion percentage. Only three teams allowed fewer points through the air and New York surrendered the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. The team got it done in the splash play columns as well. Their 48 sacks tied for seventh and they forced the eighth most turnovers.  

As would be expected on the heels of such a performance, the organization put more focus on offensive personnel in the offseason. They added one significant free agent in edge defender Haason Reddick, along with a handful of guys who will contribute. New York’s only draft picks on the defensive side were a pair of third-day defensive backs. There were a few defections, but none of the players who left were hard to replace. All in all, the Jets are poised for another strong season defensively.

Defensive Linemen

The Jets have never been shy about spending early draft picks on defensive linemen. They have taken three in the first round over the last six drafts. It started with tackle Quinnen Williams at third overall in 2019. It was a big investment, and Williams has been worth every bit of it.

Williams is an active and mobile big man who does an excellent job of getting off blocks to make plays in tight spaces. He also has enough range and quickness to make plays outside the tackle box. Most guys that are north of 300 pounds rely heavily on the bull rush in passing situations. Williams can bullrush with the best of them, but he’s not a one-trick pony.

It matters not if you look at Williams from the NFL perspective or as an IDP manager, he is an elite player either way. On the field, he is a cornerstone of a young and exciting defense. In the box scores, he is an elite-tier DT1. Williams commands double teams on virtually every snap yet still manages to be highly productive on the stat sheets.

His prowess as a pass rusher showed up in 2020 and 2021 when Williams kicked in seven and six sacks, respectively. In 2022, he exploded twelve. His sack production crashed back to earth at five in 2023, but three turnovers and career-highs in tackles and assists helped Williams to his fourth consecutive top-twelve ranking, including three in the top-ten.

The twelve-sack season could remain a career outlier, but one thing we can count on is strong tackle totals. He has at least 33 solo stops and at least 51 combined in each of the last four seasons, with last year's 39-23 representing career marks in both columns. He is the foundation of the Jets' defense and, at age 26, is in the prime of his career.

Williams was a mainstay in the lineup last year, logging nearly 800 snaps. The other tackle position was more of a revolving door, with Solomon Thomas and Quinton Jefferson splitting the bulk of the playing time while several other guys contributed. Thomas was the next most productive, totaling 15-15-5 on 484 plays. Jefferson is gone, but unless someone steps up big and forces the coaching staff to leave them on the field, the only thing likely to change in 2024 are the names.

The one guy with the potential to force their hand is Javon Kinlaw. New York added the 49ers' 2020 first-round pick, along with former Cardinals starter Leki Fotu to fill the void. Kinlaw came into the league with the expectation he would replace DeForest Buckner in San Francisco. He battled injuries in 2021 and 2022, playing in 13 games over those two seasons combined. Last year was his best to date at 14-11-3.5, but it was not good enough to keep him in San Francisco. Kinlaw is a talented young man with a skill set that should make him a great fit in the Jets penetrating scheme. He could benefit greatly from the fresh start and is a watchlist player with the potential to break out.

New York had a pair of young first-round picks on the outside last season. Jermain Johnson played sparingly as a rookie in 2022, going 18-11-2 on 312 plays. Everything more than doubled for him in year two. Johnson emerged not only as a starter but the lead man at the position. His 747 snaps were over 250 more than any other edge on the team.

At 36-19-7.5 with 3 turnovers, 7 batted passes, and a touchdown, Johnson was the fantasy game’s 20th edge defender based on overall numbers. His value to fantasy managers was tainted by inconsistency, though. Johnson put up 13 or more points in four games and 6 or fewer points in six games.

Johnson is long and lanky with a huge wingspan and the frame to add muscle without affecting his speed or explosion. He was considered raw but talented entering the league. He started for one season while at Florida State but that one season was impressive. Considering the talent, upside, and the major leap in production between his first and second seasons, Johnson is on a trajectory for a breakout in 2024. At worst, he is a good option as the third edge on our rosters.  

The team picked Michael Clemons three rounds after Johnson in 2022. They played had an equal number of opportunities as rookies and produced similar numbers. The organization had high hopes that Clemons would be the bookend, but his year two was nothing like Johnson's. Clemons went the wrong way, seeing a few more snaps but far less production. Instead of Clemons, it was Bryce Huff who stepped up with a team-leading ten sacks.

The Jets used last year’s first-round pick on Will McDonald IV, who is an undersized third-down specialist with a way to go before earning a big role. The organization still has hope for its young players. However, with Aaron Rogers closing in on the end of his career and the window closing soon for the team, they were unwilling to be patient. New York ponied up the money and signed Haason Reddick to start opposite Johnson.

Reddick is a proven pass rusher with double-digit sacks in four straight seasons and a career-best of 16 in 2022. He has a knack for forcing turnovers as well. Reddick’s resume’ includes 14 forced fumbles and 4 recoveries since 2020. The only downside for IDP managers is Reddick’s steadily shrinking tackle production. He had 51 solos in 2018. That number has fallen each year since, dipping below 30 in 2023.

The Jets scheme is similar to the one Reddick played in when he racked up 16 sacks for the Eagles. Another plus is that defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is not afraid to keep his edge players on the field if there is a drop-off to the next guy on the depth chart. That could mean upwards of 800 snaps for Johnson and Reddick. He could continue to be light in the tackle department, but Reddick is a safe bet for double-digit sacks and three or four turnovers.  

• Edge Jermaine Johnson – Target as a strong edge3 with breakout upside
• Edge Haason Reddick – Priority edge3 with upside and added value in big-play formats
• Edge Michael Clemons – Injury sleeper at best
• Edge Will McDonald – Pass rush specialist with marginal value
• DT Quinnen Williams – Elite DT1 or priority DL2
• DT Solomon Thomas – No impact
• DT Javon Kinlaw – Deep sleeper to keep an eye on
• DT Leki Fotu – No impact