Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 30: New York Giants

Photo: USA Today Sports

Overview

The Giants defense was horrible in 2021. They made a lot of moves to get better heading into 2022, improving to mediocre. The organization did not use much capital on the defensive side last offseason. Instead, they added a couple of key players and counted on the young additions of the previous seasons to do the rest. That strategy was an epic failure but to be fair, injuries were a big factor.

The pass defense was mediocre in terms of yardage and didn't give up a bunch of big plays but the pass rush was weak with four teams recording fewer than the Giants' 34 sacks. When it came to stopping the run, it was ugly. New York finished 29th in yards and 27th in plays of 20+. Only Denver surrendered more yards per carry and only Carolina allowed more rushing touchdowns.

Injuries were not the team's only problem. There was internal strife seemingly throughout the organization that led to in-season coaching changes to the staff. That included the departure of defensive coordinator Wink Martindale. Thus, the team's first step in turning things around was the hiring of Shane Bowen as defensive coordinator.

Bowen is a 3-4 guy who ran some good defenses as the Titans' coordinator over the past three seasons. The Giants have more talent to work with than the statistics show, and the few moves they made this offseason look like good ones. It will be interesting to see how big of a difference Bowen can make. Call me optimistic.  

Defensive Linemen

The Giants' plan going into last season was to rely heavily on their two young edge defenders to supply a pass rush. Kayvon Thibodeaux came through big time. The 2022 first-round pick led the team with eleven and a half sacks, forced three fumbles, and recovered one. The splash plays are enough to make Thibodeaux roster-worthy, but his low tackle totals in his first two seasons limit him to the marginal second-starter category.

Thibodeaux's rookie campaign produced 49 combined stops with 33 solos. In year two, it was 50 total stops with 26 solos. That might be who he is, but we should not overlook the upside here. The young man is 23 years old and improving, and the new defensive coordinator has a history of good production from his edge players.

The other young edge defender they were counting on was 2021 second-round pick Azeez Ojulari. That didn't go so well. He battled an ankle injury all season, missing several games and not playing much when he was active. Ojulari is a talented player with a lot of potential. The issue is availability.

Ojulari showed a lot of promise as a rookie. He didn't make a ton of tackles (49 combined), but his eight sacks led the team. Expectations were high entering year two, but the season was a virtual wash due to a string of injuries. Ojulari missed the first two games with a sore hamstring and two more with an ankle at the end of the year. In between, he was out seven games with a strained calf. The team is certainly not giving up on the young man, but they are gun-shy to the point that they coughed up a bunch of money to pay Brian Burns.

New York gave him 41,000,000 guaranteed over three years. That is a lot of money for a player who has recorded more than eight sacks once in five seasons. Either the market was high on edge rushers, or the Giants were looking at the Burns of 2022. That player put up career-highs in tackles with 63 and sacks with 12.

Burns was exceptionally consistent over his five years with Carolina. He put up 7 sacks as a rookie in 2019. In three of his other four seasons, Burns recorded 8. He has between 31 and 35 solo stops in four consecutive campaigns and has produced 2 or 3 turnovers in four of five. Those numbers are probably the floor for him in this defense. There is always some risk when a player changes teams. This one looks safe, and the change of venue could be just what Burns needs to ignite his upside.   

If he can stay out of the trainer's room, Ojulari should get the third-most snaps on the edge, with Carlos Basham not too far behind. If they are forced to go any deeper than that, it will be a problem.

Denico Autry recorded 28 sacks while playing under Bowen over the last three seasons. With at least 8 in each of those years, they represent three of the four highest sack totals of his ten-year career. The problem is that there is no Autry on this roster.

What the Giants have is a roster full of big bodies that can stuff holes, but there is not much wiggle among them. The projected starters are Dexter Lawrence II (340 pounds), D.J. Davidson (320), and Rakeem Nunez–Roches (305). The rest of the rotation should include Jordan Phillips (330), Jordon Riley (315), Etc. The only tackle checking in under 305 is Ryder Anderson.

While this collection of space eaters is not a goldmine for IDP managers, there is one player worthy of consideration. Most people have Dexter Lawrence II penciled in at nose tackle. He may line up there in base situations but even at 340 pounds, Lawrence is the best interior pass rusher of the group. He has 19 sacks in four seasons with a career-high of 7.5 in 2022.

Coach Bowen's defenses tend to pull a down lineman in favor of an extra defensive back in passing situations. That should mean at least some looks from a three-technique alignment for Lawrence, and we should keep in mind that he played some outside tackle in three-man fronts with the Giants in recent years.

Lawrence has been an IDP factor since becoming a starter in 2020. He has at least 53 combined stops in four straight seasons with a career-best of 35-33-7 with 2 forced fumbles in 2022. Those numbers put Lawrence in the top ten. He slid back to the low 20 range in 2023. That has been his norm. There is some upside with Lawrence, and at worst, he should be a high DT3.           

• Edge Brian Burns – High floor and Edge1 potential
• Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux – Low Edge2 with big upside
• Edge Azeez Ojulari – High upside injury sleeper
• Edge Carlos Basham – Modest impact at best
• DT Dexter Lawrence – Target as a low second starter with low DT1 upside
• DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches – No impact
• DT Jordan Phillips – No impact
• DT J.D. Davidson – No impact
• DT Ryder Anderson – No impact