Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 26: New England Patriots

Photo: Imagn Images

The Patriots were not easy to run on in 2023. They allowed 3.3 yards per carry, which was the best in the league. Four teams gave up fewer runs of 20+ yards, and they were eleventh in rushing touchdowns. The pass defense was not bad, either. New England was seventh in yards per attempt and finished in the top half of the league in completion percentage and long passes.

The only thing holding this defense back was a lack of big plays. With the early season injury to Matthew Judon, New England's pass rush got home 36 times, ranking 27th in sacks. Unlike the opportunistic Patriots defenses of the past, this squad was not good at taking the ball away. Their 18 turnovers on the season were tied for 23rd.

The organization must be counting on Judon's return to fix the pass rush and generate more turnovers because they did virtually nothing to improve this unit's personnel. The only draft pick dedicated to the defense was a sixth-round corner, and none of the few free agents signed project as more than depth.    

Defensive Linemen

There was no need to spend capital on the defensive line this offseason. The groceries have already been bought, and the cupboard is full. The organization committed a ton of draft capital to the defense over the previous four seasons. Nine of the twelve picks made in the first three rounds of those drafts were on defense, with five used on tackles and edge defenders. They turned to free agency for one major addition to the defensive line. That was in 2021 when they picked up Matthew Judon.

New England's sack numbers were down in 2023. What a difference Judon would have made. He put up four sacks in the first three games before leaving early in week four with a torn biceps. The rest of the team's edge defenders combined for nine sacks on the season, if you count Deatrich Wise Jr among the edge guys.

Judon put up good numbers during his five years with Baltimore. Since coming to New England, his production has been outstanding. In 2021, he recorded 60 combined tackles, twelve sacks, and recovered a fumble. In year two, Judon's tackle totals were virtually the same, but he added three sacks and a couple more turnovers.

Judon was the number 21 edge defender in 2021. In 2022, he jumped to twelve, and when he was injured last year, he ranked fifth. The injury is behind him, and Judon is set to pick up where he left off. He turns 32 in August but is only signed through the upcoming season. So we can add the motivation of a contract year to our evaluation. I was very high on Judon going into last season and continue to be. The injury might allow us to pick him up in the mid-edge2 range, which would be a steal.

Uche made a great showing down the stretch in 2022, going 20-4-11.5 with a pair of forced fumbles over the final eight games. He was my favorite edge sleeper heading into 2023. That didn't work out very well. Instead of seeing an increased role, his playing time remained limited while Jennings, Deatrich Wise Jr, and Keion White all played at least 195 more snaps.

Deatrich Wise had the best season of his six-year career in 2022. His 33 tackles, 25 assists, and 7.5 sacks were all career-bests for the 2017 fourth-round pick. At six foot five and 285 pounds, he is a versatile player who can stay on the field in any situation. When the team is in a four-man front, Wise can work on the outside, offering a dependable anchor versus the run with a little pass-rush ability. In three-man fronts, he can work the edge and will do so once in a while, but he usually slides into the five-technique role with his hand on the ground opposite the offensive tackle. Wise has modest upside and is unlikely to make a big splash on the stat sheets.

New England had a trio of 310+ pound interior linemen that made things tough on offensive lines. Lawrence Guy is gone, so last year's second-round pick, Keion White, is expected to see an increased role. Putting Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, and Christian Barmore on the field together had a lot to do with the Patriots' success against the run. White is smaller than Guy and might not be as stout against the run, but he should provide a little more pop on passing downs.  

Godchaux doesn't pack much punch as a pass rusher, though he does have a sack in two of his three seasons with the team. He has, however, put up 65, 63, and 65 combined stops in the last three seasons, respectively. The scarcity of production at the tackle position could be enough to make Godchaux worthy of a roster spot as a DT3.  

Barmore's numbers were minimal in 2022, but that was only because he missed eight games. Entering his third season, the 2021 first-round pick was set to take over the lead role at one of the five-technique tackle spots in three-man fronts. He can also play either tackle spot in four-man fronts. That versatility got him on the field for 749 plays in 2023. Barmore used the opportunity to show why the organization made the right decision when drafting him. He broke out for 39 tackles, 26 assists, 8.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and 6 batted passes to finish sixth among tackles. Barmore turns 25 in late July and is entering his prime. We may not have seen his best production.  

If White is not the answer to the hole in the interior rotation, free-agent addition Armon Watts would be the next guy to get a shot.

• Edge Matthew Judon –Elite potential in a contract year
• Edge Joshua Uche – There is potential but believe it when we see it
• Edge Anfernee Jennings – Marginal value regardless of role
• Edge Oshane Ximines – No impact expected
• DT Christian Barmore – Solid DT1 with elite-tier potential
• DT Keion White – Watchlist player
• DT Davon Godchaux – Decent DT3 with limited upside
• DT Deatrich Wise – Marginal impact
• DT Armon Watts – No impact expected