Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 19: Jacksonville Jaguars

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Jacksonville defense bottomed out in 2021. They improved but were not exactly good in 2022. The Jaguars got a little closer last year. There were still some unflattering statistics, such as passing yards, where they ranked 26th, and sacks, where they ranked 25th. They allowed too many long runs, with thirteen of them 20+ yards. In most important categories, however, the Jaguars were middle of the pack or better.

The run defense was fairly stingy, ranking ninth in yards and fifteenth in yards per carry. Their 7.1 yards per pass attempt was mediocre, and their 40 sacks were respectable. Jacksonville allowed the 17^th most points, another mediocre number, but there was one important category they did well in. Only seven teams created more takeaways.

Mediocre was not good enough, especially when considering the contribution of the defense to Jacksonville's late-season collapse, so they parted ways with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell the day after the season ended. The reins have now been handed to Ryan Nielsen.

Nielsen spent one season as an NFL defensive coordinator. In 2023, the Falcons showed great improvement under his leadership. He became available after Atlanta cleaned house following the season, which had little to do with the performance of the defense. His Falcons went from the gutter to a top-ten pass defense, helped greatly by a pass rush that doubled its production from 21 sacks in 2022 to 42 last year. 

The organization did not use much draft or free-agent capital on the defense in 2023. This year the investment was more significant. The defensive line and secondary got plenty of attention with free agents and draft picks added at both levels. There will be a new face or two in the trenches but the biggest changes are likely to come in the secondary where there could be a lot of open competition for starting jobs.

Defensive Linemen

Anyone who claims to have predicted Josh Allen's breakout season is lying through their teeth.  He had 25 sacks over his first four years combined. His 17.5 last season was tied for second most in the league. The dilemma for IDP managers is figuring out if this is a career outlier or the beginning of a trend.

Allen is not a stranger to good tackle production. His 2020 season was lost to injury, in each of Allen's other four years in the league, he has at least 32 solos. While his career-best of 70 combined stops came in 2021, Allen has at least 57 in each of the last three seasons, so we can safely count on that production. The sack numbers are where it gets sketchy.

At 43-23-17.5 with 3 turnovers, Allen made his first appearance in the top five last year. He managed ten sacks as a rookie in 2019 with seven in 2021 and six in 2022. The first step in determining between a fluke and a trend is to identify the trigger. What was different in 2023 for Allen? It was not playing time, there was no significant change to his supporting cast, nor was there a significant change in scheme. That is not a good sign.

There are positives with Allen as well. As I pointed out in last year's column, he was near the top of the league in quarterback pressures in 2022, so we should not have been surprised that he turned some of them into sacks. The short but impressive track record of his new coordinator is a plus, as is Allen's age at 26. There is a chance the light just came on for him in year five, but all things considered, drafting him among the top ten at the position would be risky. The tackle numbers have been consistent, but don't bet on a 17-sack repeat. Twelve or so would be a more realistic expectation. 

Jacksonville used the first pick in the draft on Travon Walker in 2022. His rookie campaign produced a modest three-and-a-half sacks. Year two was much better. When entering the league, many scouts had Walker tagged as a great run defender who could contribute as a pass rusher but not dominate. From that perspective, his double-digit sacks in year two were a pleasant surprise.

Walker is strong versus the run, holding ground and setting the edge well when teams run at him. He is not a blazing-fast upfield pass rusher. While he lacks the high-end upside of a guy like Allen, Walker turned in 49 combined tackles as a rookie and 52 last year. I'm not sure double-digit sacks will be a regular thing for him, but 50-55 combined tackles and 7-10 sacks with a turnover or two and a couple of swatted passes could make him a solid third edge for us.

An injury to Allen or Walker could be a devastating blow to the Jaguars' chances. Tackle Roy Robertson-Harris was third on the team in sacks last year with three and a half. Meanwhile, the only other Jacksonville edge defender to record a sack was K'Lavon Chaisson with two. The 2020 first-round pick never amounted to much and was jettisoned after last season.

Under Mike Caldwell, the team's down linemen were saddled with a lot of two-gap responsibilities. That could change with the new coordinator but it doesn't change the fact there are no DeForest Buckner types on this roster. Jacksonville has a group of quality veteran players in their interior line rotation. They got quicker and more athletic with the signing of Arik Armstead but that does not guarantee any IDP value.

Armstead turned in 54 combine tackles, 10 sacks, and 3 turnovers in 2019. That was by far the most productive of his nine seasons in the league. He had another good year in 2021, going 30-33-6. Outside of those two years, his career has been rather disappointing for a former 17^th overall pick. Armstead could be a good fit and has the potential to surprise, but let him show us something before devoting a valuable roster spot.

DaVon Hamilton lines up at the nose tackle position. He is a 335-pound road grader who is formidable against the run but doesn't offer much as a pass rusher beyond the ability to push the pocket. With 55 combined stops, a couple of sacks, and 2 takeaways, Hamilton was the number 26 interior lineman in 2022 before missing most of last season. If he is healthy, Hamilton could provide decent depth in leagues starting two tackles, but his ceiling is limited. 

Robertson-Harris and Adam Gotsis made up the rest of the tackle rotation last year. Those guys are still on the roster, but there will be competition for playing time. The Jaguars picked up Maason Smith in the second round, Jordan Jefferson in the fourth, and Myles Cole in the seventh.

Smith is a high-upside pick who has the measurables and skillset to become a disruptive force. What he does not have is experience. He missed time at LSU with a shoulder injury in 2021 and tore his ACL in 2022. Smith had 19 tackles and 4 sacks in nine games as a freshman in 2021 and played in twelve contests last year. Working mostly as a backup, he totaled 28 tackles with 2.5 sacks. Smith has the tools but a lot to learn. NFL.coms Lance Zierlein put it best when he said Smith has early-round traits but middle-round tape.

Jacksonville went back to LSU for Jefferson. He is a developmental prospect who needs to get stronger at the point of attack but the Jaguars like his quick feet and knack for getting into the backfield as a one-gap penetrator. Unlike Smith, Jefferson has no lack of experience having played in 42 games at West Virginia before adding 13 more after transferring to LSU. In 26 games over the last two seasons, he was 26-41-5.5 with 6 batted passes and a forced fumble.

These two players have their shortcomings but they fit the scheme and could be significant contributors this year. Cole might have to wait a little longer to get on the field. He is tall at six foot six and has a huge wingspan that helps him get off blocks and interfere with passing windows. At 278 pounds, his struggles as a point-of-attack defender could spell a move to the edge at some point.  

• Edge Josh Allen – Priority second starter with top-ten ceiling
• Edge Travon Walker – Solid depth with marginal upside
• Edge Trevis Gipson – Injury sleeper with limited potential
• Edge Yasir Abdullah – No impact
• Edge De'Shaan Dixon -  No impact
• DT Roy Robertson-Harris – No impact
• DT Arik Armstead – Watchlist worthy
• DT Adam Gotsis – No impact
• DT Davon Hamilton – Depth in leagues starting two tackles
• DT Maason Smith – Watchlist dynasty prospect
• DT Jordan Jefferson - Watchlist dynasty prospect