Eyes of the Guru IDP Info: Week 16

Congratulations! If you are reading this, chances are you either earned a first-round bye or won your first-round game. It feels good to get here but don't make the mistake of taking your foot off the gas. No one wants to be a Jonathan Taylor and drop the ball just before crossing the finish line. If anything, with two games to go, turn up the heat for these last two weeks and sprint to the finish.

A few words of wisdom as we look to field a week 16 winner. Do your homework, but don't outsmart yourself. If there is anything I've learned in 30+ years at this game, it's not to be over-reliant on matchups come playoff time. Things change fast in December. Teams are heading in a variety of directions. Some are in the NFL playoffs and chasing a bye, some are desperately trying to land one of the remaining tickets to the dance, and others are already looking to next year. Injuries are taking their toll, forcing offenses and defenses to adjust and evolve. Simply put, in many cases, the numbers we have been looking at to determine the best matchups are no longer relevant.

The bottom line here is when in doubt, stick to the horses that pulled your wagon to the dance. Don't play a backup over a guy who's been starting for you all season just because the numbers from the first 12 weeks suggest the matchup is better. There is more to winning a championship than just crunching numbers.

Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals

Mack Wilson Sr. suffered a concussion early in Sunday's game. Krys Barnes got the majority of the snaps after Wilson left, but the team moved away from the base defense, using some big nickel and bringing on Julian Okwara as an extra pass rusher on some plays. Wilson played 4 snaps, Barnes 23, Okwara 18, and Dedrion Taylor-Demerson 12. Unless the team gives us some reason before Sunday to believe differently, we are not getting any help from these guys.

Here's a nugget for the dynasty managers. Darius Robinson not only recorded his first NFL sack, but he also led the team's interior linemen in snaps at 59%. Slip this guy onto your roster for safekeeping. He's going to be a good one.

Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons

Bad news for anyone looking to get linebacker production from any Falcon besides Kaden Elliss. Atlanta shut Troy Andersen down, placing him on IR. Instead of plugging Nate Landman back into the lineup, they went with a time-share between Landman and rookie JD Bertrand. Bertrand worked on 29 snaps, while Landman saw action on 20. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens

We could get some help from the Ravens. Malik Harrison had a solid outing against the Giants, going 2-6-1 on a 79% play share. He worked on two more plays than Roquan Smith in the blowout win. Meanwhile, Trenton Simpson was an afterthought, logging five snaps. Harrison went 4-2 on 47% of the playing time versus Pittsburgh in the first meeting. He should produce better with the expanded role.

Since moving into the starting lineup, Ar'Darius Washington has turned in double-digit fantasy points in five of eight games, including a 13-point outing against the Steelers in week eleven. Washington was 5-7 in the tackle columns in that game. He also has two picks and a sack in eight starts and is coming off his highest point total of the season versus the Giants last week. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills

Matt Milano left Sunday's game with a groin injury, and Dorian Williams departed with an elbow. That left Baylon Spector to handle the final 18 snaps at the weakside linebacker position. Williams was back on the field for a few snaps late in the fourth quarter, suggesting his injury is not serious. We should know more about the status of these players when the participation reports come out on Wednesday. The Patriots have been an excellent matchup for linebackers over the last several weeks, so we could get some help here.  

Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp were both inactive versus Detroit. Both players have a chance to get back on the field this week in a plus matchup. Cole Bishop and Cam Lewis saw most of the action at safety last week with an appearance by Kareem Jackson. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers

Claudin Cherelus got the start at weak-side linebacker against Dallas. He made a good impression, recording nine combined stops with five solos, on 73% of the action. The Panthers put Trevin Wallace and Cherelus on IR Tuesday. The next man up on Sunday was Jon Rhattigan.  

The spell is broken for A'Shawn Robinson. Blame this one on me. After watching him rack up double-digit points in six straight games, I finally broke down and started him over DeForest Buckner. It cost me a close playoff game. Sadly, I knew better and should have listened to my own advice. In my defense and Robinson's, he is not practicing early this week due to a sore knee.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears

Safety Elijah Hicks returned to action after missing three games, but he did not return to a full-time role. Instead, he worked in a time-share with Jonathan Owens getting 55% of the playing time. This may have been a case of Hicks being on a pitch count. Owens was far more productive with 6 solo stops to Hicks 2-2. Unfortunately, there is no way to know how the playing time will break down for week 16, so plugging in Owens is a major risk.

Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals

Sam Hubbard suffered a PCL injury on his TD catch. He will not suit up for week 16 and could miss the rest of the season. Look for Joseph Ossai to get the start against Cleveland and split time relatively equally with Myles Murphy. The Browns have been a strong matchup for edge defenders, but I'm not sure either of these guys can take advantage of it.  

Jordan Battle took the lead in the strong safety time-share when the Bengals returned from their bye in week 13. His playing time has increased in each game since, reaching 90% against Tennessee. Not so coincidentally, Battle had the most productive game of his young career, going 5-5 with a fumble recovery for nearly 20 fantasy points. The Browns have been an inconsistent matchup for safeties, and they will have a new starting quarterback this week. For anyone in dire need, Battle is worth a shot. This news is probably more valuable to dynasty managers looking to pack their rosters with next year's prospects.

B.J. Hill went 4-0-1 and has a sack in three consecutive games. Giving up an average of nearly 10 combined stops and a sack to the interior line positions, Cleveland gives Hill a shot at four in a row and another quality point total.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns

With Greg Newsome II on IR, the concussion suffered by Martin Emerson Jr on Sunday puts the Browns in a bad spot when they face the high-powered Cincinnati offense. Cameron Mitchell should get the start if Emerson is not cleared.

The Bengals are a tough matchup for edge defenders, giving up six combined stops and just less than a sack per game to the position. That said, Myles Garrett has been a thorn in their side over his entire career. Garrett was poked in the eye and is seeing a doctor this week to have it checked out. It doesn't sound like he is in danger of missing any time, but watch the injury report if he is your guy.   

Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys

After being inactive for week 14, Damone Clark was in uniform but did not play against the Panthers. Instead, it was Marist Liufau with an increased role, going 2-4 with a forced fumble on 87% of the snaps. 

Trevon Diggs is heading for knee surgery that could affect his 2025 season. The recovery is expected to take eight months, pushing his expected return into late September at best.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions

Last week, I talked about all the injuries the Lions defense has suffered. On Sunday, they lost two more starters when Carlton Davis went down with a broken jaw and Alim McNeill tore his ACL. Chicago is struggling offensively, so a game with Detroit's JV defense could be just what they need to put some points on the board. The Bears have been a less-than-stellar matchup for players at the second and third levels of the defense, but this situation could trump that. Kerby Joseph,  Brian Branch, and Jack Campbell combined for 22 tackles, 12 assists, and a pair of pass breakups against Buffalo. No one will mistake the Bears' offense for the Bills, but these guys could all have good numbers again this week. 

Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers

Quay Walker went down with an ankle injury that has the team calling him week-to-week. That normally means the player will miss at least one game. Looking at the stat sheet, we might assume that Edgerrin Cooper (6-1-1 int.) picked up the extra snaps. That was not the case, however. Cooper was in his normal role, seeing 58% of the snaps while splitting time with Isaiah McDuffie. Eric Wilson came off the bench to take over for Walker and played every snap the rest of the way. The Saints were a good matchup for linebackers for most of the season, but they are severely hamstrung by injuries to Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, and now Alvin Kamara, among others. It might be a good idea to avoid the situation this week. That said, the linebackers have a great matchup with Minnesota in week 17.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans

There was no easing back into action for Christian Harris, who was on the field for 82% of the snaps in his first action of the season. His four tackles and four assists were respectable, and most importantly, he came through healthy. Harris could be back to an every-down role when the Texans face the Chiefs this week. Even if he is not, at 80% participation with a good matchup, he is a safe, high-floor play.

Guru's IDP Notes: Jacksonville Jaguars

For most of the last two decades, the Jaguars have been a goldmine of fantasy production at the linebacker position. To say it has been a downseason for Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd would be an understatement. The two bottomed out in week 15 when they let us down big time. Granted, the Jets were a horrible matchup going into the game, so big numbers were not expected. Even with just 16 rush attempts, Oluokun and Lloyd should have been better than three tackles and two assists between them. Fortunately, for those of us who survived the letdown, they have better matchups in the next two weeks. The Raiders are mediocre in that category, and Jacksonville finishes the fantasy season against the Titans, who are a strong opponent for the position.

Guru's IDP Notes: Kansas City Chiefs

Chamarri Conner suffered a concussion and had to be helped off the field late in the second quarter. He will have to clear protocol, and after watching him go off on wobbly legs, I would not count on that happening this week. Nazeeh Johnson stepped in to finish the game and would likely get the start.

Guru's IDP Notes: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have shut down Maxx Crosby who will have surgery to repair the ankle that has bothered him for most of the season. Interestingly, they made Charles Snowden inactive for the Monday night game. As a result, K'Lavon Chaisson jumped from his usual 40% of the snaps to 98% while last year's seventh overall pick, Tyree Wilson went from 45% to 72%. Chaisson is a career backup who, barring injury situations like the one at hand, will never claim a starting role.

Wilson, on the other hand, is someone we need to scoop up and stash in dynasty formats. He was not playing much early in the season. Since week eight, Wilson has four sacks and four games with double-digit points. He was 3-1-1 versus Atlanta, posting those numbers for the second time in four games.

The Raiders poached Andre Carter II from the Vikings practice squad. It will be interesting to see if anything comes of this move.  

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Chargers

Troy Dye put up good numbers against the Buccaneers at 5-4-1, but don't get excited about it. His role was limited to 56% of the snaps with Junior Colson getting 29%. Denzel Perryman opened the week with a limited label. He could be back in action this week as well.   

Tampa Bay shut down the Chargers pass rushers. The group did virtually nothing for the second consecutive week. Next on the schedule, is a horrid matchup with a Denver team that has given up the second-fewest points to edge defenders since week nine. One interesting note here; with all four edge guys healthy, Tuli Tuipulotu led the group in snaps at 65%. Stash that in your memory bank.

Guru's IDP Notes: Los Angeles Rams

Kobie Turner had a big game against San Francisco, going 3-2-2. Christian Rozeboom added his first career sack to nine combined stops for his sixth double-digit outing in the last seven games. For Turner, the chances of another strong outing are good. The Jets are allowing nine combined stops and almost a sack and a half per game to interior linemen since week nine. It will be tougher sledding for Rozeboom. Over the last five games, New York has given up the fewest points to linebackers by a wide margin of over 2.5 points per game.