Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 17: Indianapolis Colts

Photo: USA Today Sports

The Colts' defense was all over the place in 2022. They did some things well and struggled in other areas. The team made a coaching change before the 2023 season but retained defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, hoping the continuity would make them better last year. What they got was more of the same.

Indianapolis ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed, 19th in yards per carry, and allowed fourth most points on the ground, but gave up just 11 runs of 20+ yards. The pass defense was middle of the pack in yards, finished in the bottom half of the league in yards per attempt, and allowed 54 plays of 20+ yards, but was top twelve in scoring. Even the big play stats were all over the place with the team's 51 sacks ranking fourth and their 15 interceptions 18th. The column that matters most to NFL teams is scoring. The Colts did not fare well there, with only four teams giving up more total points.

When you put it all together, this unit was mediocre in 2023. Looking at what they did in free agency and the draft, there is not much reason to expect anything different in 2024. Their biggest defensive addition in free agency was a backup tackle who could see some rotational snaps. They got a potentially great pass rusher in the first round of the draft, but he plays the edge position that was not a team need. On day three, they picked up two safeties and a corner. All of whom are unlikely to have big roles as rookies. It seems foolish to keep doing the same things with the same players and expect different results.

Defensive Linemen

The Indianapolis defensive line includes one of the best tackle tandems in the league. Grover Stewart mans the one-technique position. At six foot four and 314 pounds, he is not the biggest to play the position but he is one of the more productive. Stewart is a hard-to-move rock in the middle of the run defense. He holds up well against double teams and does a great job of getting off blocks to make plays. He is a big man without much wiggle as a pass rusher but will contribute by bull-rushing blockers and forcing the passer out of the pocket.

Stewart turned in career-best numbers across the board in 2022. His 44 solo tackles tied Washington's Jonathan Allen and Colts teammate DeForest Buckner for the second-most by an interior lineman. Add career-highs in assists at 25 and sacks with 4, plus two batted passes and a fumble recovery, and Stewart was number eleven at the position. The big question for IDP managers was, would he repeat? The answer was no.

Seven seasons into his career, Stewart's big 2022 campaign remains an outlier. He missed six games last year but do the math before assuming that was the reason for his production of 23-18-0.5. His per-game average of barely over six points, ranked 31st. Stewart might be roster-worthy as depth in leagues with deep rosters or more than twelve teams. For the rest of us, he is not worth committing the roster space for a guy we can pick up later as a bye-week flier.

There are no such concerns with Buckner, who is a perennial tier-one elite. In eight seasons as a pro, he has never totaled fewer than 35 solo or 59 combined stops. Buckner is one of the league's premier inside pass rushers with 68 career sacks. His personal best of 12 came in 2018, and he has at least seven in each of the last six seasons. He has eight forced fumbles and seven recoveries in the previous five years and consistently knocks down at least three passes a season. Most importantly for IDP managers, since 2018 Buckner has not finished outside the top five with back-to-back number ones in 2019 and 2020 and a return to the top in 2023. While he is not a candidate to be the first defensive player off the board, there is no argument against making him the first defensive tackle taken.  

The 2022 Colts got little from the rest of their interior linemen. Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson II, and Adetomiwa Adebowore combined for 23 tackles, 21 assists, and 4.5 sacks. Former Dolphin Raekwon Davis should find his way onto the field for a few snaps every week, but the Colts are not a team that rotates several players evenly. If they stay healthy, Stewart and Buckner could each see 800 snaps while no one else at the position is a lock to play 350.

Last year's Colts used a three-man rotation at defensive end. In a 2021 draft that was thin at the top on pass rushers, the team used their first two picks on defensive ends Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, respectively. Last spring, they signed Samson Ebukam in free agency. All three players were on the field for between 622 and 702 plays, and all three paid dividends with at least eight sacks.

Ebukam led the way in sacks with 9.5, solo tackles with 39, and fantasy points with slightly over nine per game. Add in 3 forced fumbles and 17 assists, and he slipped into the conversation as a low-end second starter. Paye was not far behind, finishing inside the top 30 with 52 total stops, 8.5 sacks, and 4 turnovers. Lower tackle totals held Odeyingbo back despite his eight sacks and four takeaways.

All three of these players are back for 2024, which is why the selection of Laiatu Latu at fifteen overall, was somewhat of a shocker. Examining Latu's scouting reports and college production gives us perspective on what the organization may have been thinking. This is simply a player with so much talent and potential that they couldn't pass him up.

Latu is tall at 6-foot-5 and has a big wingspan that gives both blockers and quarterback fits. He runs a 4.64 in the forty-yard dash, which is not bad for a 259-pound man. He is mature beyond his years, using combination moves rarely seen by young players, has an exceptional motor, and doesn't stay blocked for long. While his tape will make you say wow, his production closes the deal. After transferring to UCLA in 2022, Latu started 25 games over the last two years. His career numbers with the Bruins were 136 tackles 23.5 sacks, and 7 turnovers.

Between the Colts' aggressive scheme and Latu's skill set and work ethic, he has the potential to become one of the elite at the edge position. He is, however, not without concerns, especially when it comes to IDP consideration. Latu suffered a fairly serious neck injury while at Washington that kept him out for the 2021 season. He was medically cleared and has shown no sign of the issue over the last two years, but some teams still had concerns. What I fear most is that he will become part of a four-man rotation and see about 600 snaps a season, at least until one of the other three moves on. Ebukam and Paye are signed through the 2025 season, but Odeyingbo will become a free agent at the end of this year.

There are two notes within this story for dynasty managers. Be patient for a year with Latu, and pick up Odeyingbo at the end of the season. He is good enough to be a starter in the league and a successful IDP target in the right situation.   

• DE Kwity Paye – Strong depth with limited upside
• DE Dayo Odeyingbo – Bye week fill-in and possible dynasty target
• DE Laiatu Latu – Depth with upside for re-draft managers, possible star long-term
• DE Samson Ebukam – Priority depth with second-starter upside
• DE Tyquan Lewis – No impact
• DT DeForest Buckner – Elite DT1
• DT Grover Stewart – DT3 with marginal upside
• DT Taven Bryan – Injury sleeper with limited upside
• DT Adetomiwa Adebawore – No impact
• DT Eric Johnson - No impact