Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 18: Houston Texans

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The Texans began their overhaul with the hiring of DeMeco Ryans last year. The second objective was to establish cornerstones on both sides of the ball. Check that off the list with the selections of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. within the first three picks of the draft. Houston had a limited budget and a lot of holes to fill on defense, so they brought in a slew of bargain-priced veterans and added a dash of third–day draft picks. From that point on, the 2023 season was an evaluation process. The new coaching staff moved players around, and many got the opportunity to prove themselves.

Houston played slightly better than mediocre defense last year. Considering the roster they were working with, the coaching staff did a good job of getting the most from their players. They were good against the run but not very good versus the pass. They were 16th in takeaways, tied for 13th in sacks, and managed to allow the 11th fewest points.

The organization parted with most of last year's free agents and added another slew of new ones. The difference is, this time they had money to spend. Money can't buy happiness but it purchased the Texans a lot of talent and possibly a championship-caliber defense.

The team was not finished after free agency, adding a corner in round two, a safety in round three, a linebacker in the sixth, and two defensive linemen in the seventh. This unit could easily be looking at six new starters and possibly more. It might take a while for all the pieces to jell. Once they do, this defense could be tough to score on.  

Defensive Linemen

Will Anderson didn't set any rookie records that I'm aware of, but he performed like a third-overall pick on the field and, later in the season, in the box scores as well. As a 21-year-old rookie, Anderson totaled 45 combined tackles and 7 sacks in 13 games. Imagine what he is capable of when he reaches his full potential.

For a glimpse of what that might look like, check out Anderson's numbers over the second half of last season. He consistently put up good tackle numbers from the start but had one sack over the first seven games. In his final six games, Anderson added six more, including four in his last two outings. He was a low-end second starter or a good number three for us as a rookie. Those numbers barely scratched the surface of his potential. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.  

Anderson was not the team's best edge defender. That honor went to Jonathan Greenard, who had a breakout season. With 35 tackles, including 15 for loss, 16 assists, and 12.5 sacks, he looks like a rising star. Most young, rebuilding teams would make every effort to retain such a player when he hits free agency. Not the Texans. Instead, they went all in on free agency's crown jewel at the position, Danielle Hunter.

There are few players at the position that Hunter would not be an upgrade over. He put up twelve-and-a-half sacks as a second-year player in 2016. The only thing that has stopped him from reaching double-digit sacks every year since then were injuries in 2017, 2020, and 2021. Hunter has 14 or more sacks in three of his last four seasons not affected by injuries. Adding to his fantasy value, he also has at least 50 solo tackles and 64 combined stops in each of those seasons.

Hunter had a major scare when a neck injury caused him to miss the entire 2020 season. He then missed much of 2021 with a torn pectoral. Since that time, he has been back on track. In 2023, Hunter set new career highs with 54 solo tackles, 23 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks, and 4 forced fumbles. In nearly any other season, those numbers would put him at the top of the position. Last year, they were good enough for third.

Hunter is healthy and, at age 29, is at the top of his game. He is a candidate for the 2024 sack title and an elite-tier IDP target. He already has four top-three seasons on his resume. It could be five once this one is in the books.    

Greenard and Anderson played between 60 and 70% of the snaps regularly in 2023. Hunter rarely came off the field for the Vikings, consistently logging better than 90% of the playing time. With Anderson in his second season and settled in, and a significant drop off from the starters to anyone else on the roster, it would not be a surprise to see both Anderson and Hunter on the field over 80% of the time going forward.

Houston's starting tackles from last year are gone, and the top four on the current depth chart are all new to the team. Based on the raw numbers, it is hard to call Denico Autry and Foley Fatukasi a big upgrade over Sheldon Rankins and Malik Collins. We should probably consider this one a push.

At 34 years of age and entering his 11th season, Autry is coming off the most productive season of his career. At 30-20-11 with a couple of turnovers, he was the fantasy game's seventh-ranked tackle in 2023. It was his best, but not Autry's first good season. He has at least seven sacks in five of the last six campaigns, including four straight. While he is productive as a pass rusher, Autry has not made enough tackles at his previous stops to be a consistent option for IDP managers. That could change with a new team, but don't count on him as more than a decent third man or bye-week cover.

Fatukasi projects as the other starting tackle, though that is not written in stone. He is a strong anchor for the run defense but has little to offer as a pass rusher. Khalil Davis, Kurt Hinsh, and Tim Settle will all be in the mix for a piece of the action, but none of them give us any reason to expect more than marginal numbers.

• Edge Will Anderson Jr. – Poised for a breakout in year two
• Edge Danielle Hunter – Elite tier Edge1
• Edge Derek Barnett – Injury sleeper with marginal upside
• Edge Dylan Horton – Injury sleeper at best
• Edge Solomon Byrd – Developmental rookie
• DT Denico Autry – DT3 with week-to-week upside
• DT Foley Fatukasi – No impact
• DT Tim Settle – No impact
• DT Mario Edwards – No impact
• DT Khalil Davis – No impact