Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 13: Green Bay Packers

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Last year's Packers were bad on defense. Maybe not historically bad, but bad enough to prompt not just personnel changes but a complete reboot of the defense, including a new coordinator and a completely different scheme.

It has been fifteen years since Green Bay last ran an even front as their base defense. It will not be a traditional 4-3 under new coordinator Jeff Hafley. Hafley hails from the San Francisco coaching tree, where he last coached in the NFL in 2018. Since then, his defenses at Boston College and Ohio State have featured two linebackers and five defensive backs with a single high safety. It's a look that is becoming popular in the NFL.  

There is nearly always a roster transformation and a learning curve when making such sweeping changes. The team must evaluate returning personnel to see who fits and where, and then address the positions of need once those have been identified. We might not see a big statistical upgrade right away but the Packers should get better as the season progresses and everyone settles in.

The personnel transformation is in full swing this offseason with the team signing arguably the best safety available in free agency in Xavier McKinney, and then adding a pair of linebackers and three safeties in the first five rounds of the draft.   

Defensive Linemen

When teams move between three and four-man fronts, the initial personnel shuffle usually involves edge defenders. The Packers have made a significant investment in pass rushers over the last few years so they will give those players a chance to fit in. Rashan Gary was a first-round pick in 2019, Preston Smith was a second-round pick by Washington in 2015 before signing with the Packers in 2019, and Lukas Van Nes was selected thirteenth overall by the team last year.

One advantage this trio has over most 3-4 pass rushers making the transition is size. Many 3-4 edge guys are on the small side, between 245 and 260 pounds. All three of Green Bay's holdovers are at least 265 with Gary checking in at 277 and Van Ness 272. Another factor is that they have all played outside in four-man fronts before - Gary and Van Ness during their college careers and Smith in college and early in his NFL career.

The scheme change could be a plus for all three guys. Gary has been a good player for the Packers but has neither lived up to his first-round status nor been an IDP factor thus far. He is still looking for his first double-digit sack production, though he has reached nine twice. It is modest tackle totals that have held him back the most. He has never reached 30 solo stops in a season and has a career-best of 46 combined. Considering that he is under contract through the 2027 season, the Packers would be ahead of the game if Gary makes a successful transition.   

Smith has been somewhat fantasy-relevant throughout his career but only as depth for the most part. He slipped into the top 20 in 2019 with a total of 55 tackles, 12 sacks (the only double-digit total of his career), and 2 turnovers, and again in 2022 when he was 38-21-8 with a couple of forced fumbles. Smith turns 32 in November but is signed through the 2026 season.

Van Ness had a somewhat quiet rookie season, totaling 32 tackles and four sacks on 443 plays as the fourth man in the rotation, but he might have the highest ceiling of the three. He has the size for a three-down role at six feet five and 272 pounds and has the frame to add more muscle. Van Ness earned the nickname Hercules from his Iowa teammates for his power and prowess as a bull-rusher. Despite impressing those around him, Van Ness was not very productive statistically. In two seasons with the Hawkeyes (26 games), he recorded 70 total tackles and 13 sacks. He will need to become more of a technician, adding some pass-rush moves and counters to his arsenal. Van Ness is stout against the run and, at age 22, is just scratching the surface of his potential.  

The biggest IDP impact of the scheme change could be at the tackle positions. The previous scheme was a read-and-react style with two-gap responsibilities. The new look will be an aggressive, penetrating style with one-gap responsibilities. That could put third-year man Devonte Wyatt and grizzled veteran Kenny Clark in line for success both on the field and in box scores.

Clark has been one of the NFL's better 3-4 nose tackles in recent years. Despite the limitations of the scheme, he averaged 52 combined stops, 4.5 sacks, and 2 turnovers and has been a borderline second starter or quality depth for IDP managers over the last seven seasons. Clark is both powerful and mobile for a man of 314 pounds. He has made a living of stacking up double teams and getting off blocks to make plays. While he is not a threat to reach double-digit sacks, Clark has some wiggle and is not reliant on the bull rush as his only option on passing downs.

Clark worked almost exclusively at nose tackle in recent years but has played the outside (three-technique) position in the past. He should transition smoothly to the new scheme and have a chance to be more than a DT3 going forward.   

Wyatt was a first-round pick of the team in 2022. He failed to make an impact at what was then a deep position for the team. Dean Lowery and Jarran Reed moved on in 2023, and Wyatt's playing time nearly tripled in year two. He managed a respectable 38 total stops with 5.5 sacks in the Packers' four-man interior rotation.

Wyatt rotated with Tedarrell Slaton and Karl Brooks last year. At 304 pounds, Wyatt is smaller, more athletic, and a much better pass rusher than the 330-pound Slaton, who could be more of a short-yardage situational player in this scheme. This is a situation to watch when things heat up this summer, but I expect Wyatt to come out of camp as the starter and possibly have a breakout season.

Brooks had a surprisingly good rookie campaign last year. The sixth-round pick was a steady part of the rotation, seeing about 30% of the action on the season. On 441 plays, Brooks contributed 20 combined tackles, 4 sacks, 4 batted passes, and 3 turnovers. He should be a better scheme fit than Slaton and could see significant action as the third tackle in the rotation, especially on passing downs.     

• Edge Preston Smith – Depth with a little upside
• Edge Rashan Gary – Sleeper with a low edge2 ceiling
• Edge Lukas Van Ness – Sleeper with good long-term potential
• Edge Kingsley Enagbare – Marginal expectations as the fourth edge
• DT Devonte Wyatt – Strong sleeper with DT2 potential
• DT Kenny Clark – Low-end DT2 with a little upside
• DT Karl Brooks – Injury sleeper  
• DT Tedarrell Slaton – No impact
• DT Jonathan Ford – No impact