Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 16: Detroit Lions

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The Lions defense was good and bad in 2023. They were stingy against the run, allowing the second-fewest yards on the ground and just five carries of 20+ yards. On the other hand, they were generous versus the pass, giving up the fourth-most yards through the air and the most pass plays of 20+ yards.  

Sometimes, the number of yards doesn't tell the whole story. We might point out that they faced the third-fewest rushes as the reason for their low yardage. There is surely a correlation but if we want to know how good a team is, look at yards per carry. Detroit's 3.7 was the third-fewest.

The same observation can be made about the Lions' pass defense. They faced a lot of attempts so it makes sense that they allowed the fourth most yards through the air. That's true but it sure doesn't help when only one team surrenders more yards per attempt. When you mix it all together, the Lions were a mediocre defense last year. Their 41 sacks were respectable and they were middle of the pack in both turnovers and scoring.

As we have seen since the hiring of head coach Dan Campbell, the Lions are a team that does a good job of identifying needs and addressing them in the offseason. They will have one new starter and possibly two along the front line while the secondary has four new faces to compete at the corner positions, including first and second-round draft picks.

Defensive Linemen

The Lions have a cornerstone in third-year edge defender Aiden Hutchinson. The second overall pick is 2022, he has been everything the organization expected. Most rookie pass rushers start slowly and break out in year two or three. In his first season, Hutchinson went 34-18-9.5 with five turnovers and 3 batted passes. If that is his version of a slow start, this guy will be special.

If not for such a productive rookie campaign, Hutchinson's year two numbers would have been a breakout. Instead, they were simply an improvement at 36-15-11.5 with 6 turnovers, 7 batted passes, and 14 tackles for loss. Hutchinson turns 24 in August and is just entering the prime of his career. He was the fantasy game's eleventh-ranked edge defender in 2023 and could be a perennial top ten.

Hutchinson is an outstanding building block but if the Lions expect to go anywhere, he will need some help. Detroit had 15 players contribute in the sack column in 2023. Hutchinson was the only one with more than 5. The rest of the defensive line accounted for 13 between them, with only six and a half credited to other defensive ends.

It is not that the Lions failed to address the other edge position; it's how they went about it that is in question. We've all heard the cliché' that sometimes the best ability is availability. That has been a problem for Marcus Davenport throughout his six years in the league. The 2018 first-round pick of the Saints has never missed fewer than two games in a season and has been sidelined for a total of 32, including 13 last year. Those numbers don't include all the games he was banged up and played sparingly or was ineffective, and there have been plenty of those.

When healthy, Davenport is a talented player. In eleven games for the Saints in 2021, he totaled 23-16-9, forced 3 fumbles, and recovered 1. In his other five seasons combined, Davenport has 13 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. The organization is rolling the dice here. If he can beat the injury bug, Davenport can be a strong bookend. If he comes up gimpy yet again, there is not much of a backup plan. The team has to be concerned that he is already missing time during OTAs.  

What plan they do have, consists of Josh Paschal, John Cominsky, and a collection of undrafted rookies and taxi squad guys. Cominsky is a serviceable backup who can give the team a few snaps every week but is not a starting talent. It is Paschal that the organization has high hopes for. He was a round-two pick in 2022, the same year Hutchinson came aboard. The Lions expected him to step up and be the bookend to his draft-mate but so far it is not looking good.

Injuries have been a big factor for Paschal. He was slowed by a sore knee and a core injury that started bothering him during his rookie training camp. After recovering from sports hernia surgery, Paschal was eyeing a bigger role in year two before missing time with a sore knee. All indications are that the injuries are behind him heading into training camp.

When healthy, Paschal is a strong edge setter who plays the run well, but he does not excel as a pass rusher. He is more of a big-body who can help on early downs, but his contributions as a pass rusher are modest. The best scenario for the Lions would be to have Paschal in the game on running downs while Davenport concentrates on rushing the passer. That might help both players avoid injury, but it's not going to make either of them IDP targets.

Detroit added some beef to their tackle position by signing 335-pound D.J. Reader. He will replace last year's starter, Benito Jones as the team's one-technique, which is sort of an off-set nose tackle in the Lions 4-3. Reader is an excellent anchor for the run defense and does a pretty good job of getting off blocks to make tackles, but he has little to offer as a pass rusher. He will be on the sideline in most passing situations and is a marginal fantasy option at best.

A glance at the numbers of last year's tackles will cause most IDP managers to turn the page and look elsewhere. There is one player of interest here though. Alim McNeill was the most productive of Detroits' interior linemen last season at 17-15-5 with a forced fumble. Those are not eye-catching numbers but they look much better when we consider that virtually all came in nine games. If we project his averages over a full 17-game schedule, we get something like 30-25-9.5. That would be low DT1 fantasy points.

He is not garnering much attention this summer so if you need a DT3 with potential or get pinched for a second starter, McNeill could be your answer.

• DE Aidan Hutchinson – On the cusp of becoming a perennial top-twelve
• DE Josh Paschal – Marginal expectations
• DE John Cominsky – No IDP value
• DE Marcus Davenport – High ceiling but considerable injury risk
• DT Alim McNeill – Sleeper DT3 with upside
• DT DJ Reader – Marginal IDP value
• DT Levi Onwuzurike – No impact expected
• DT Broderick Martin – No impact expected