Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 9: Cincinnati Bengals

Photo: Imagn Images

Cincinnati missed the playoffs last year for the first time since 2020. Everyone considers the injury to Joe Burrow the reason, but there was more to it. The other big difference between their recent success and the 2023 season was the defense. As recently as 2022, this unit was very good. That season, the Bengals ranked fifth against the run, and their 58.9 % completion rate against the pass was the best in the league. Cincinnati surrendered the third-fewest points, and their 24 takeaways placed in the top third of the league. By those standards, the 2024 campaign was a disaster.

Cincinnati finished 26th against the run last year, with only Denver allowing more yards per carry. The Browns and Broncos were the only teams to allow more runs of 20+ yards, and seven teams surrendered more points on the ground. The pass defense was not much better. The team did manage a respectable 44 sacks and 17 interceptions, but they were in the bottom half of the league in passing touchdowns, 27th in passing yards, and their 8.1 yards per attempt was dead last.

It is not a case of the organization neglecting the defense. The reality is, that they have used more draft picks, including high ones, on that side of the ball than on the offense since 2021. This year's draft was no exception with half of their picks on defense, including second, third, and fifth rounds. Indeed, it is hard to put a finger on what happened last year. The good news is they still have the horses to turn it around. In a division known for playing great defense, they will have to if this team is going anywhere.

Defensive Linemen

Judging from their reaction, the organization must have seen the interior defensive line as a big part of the problem. The offseason brought them free agent addition Sheldon Rankins, second-round pick Kris Jenkins, and third-rounder McKinnley Jackson. Which of those guys will replace last year's starter, D.J. Reader, who took the free agent train out of town?

One clue to how the team plans to adapt is that they also parted ways with Josh Tupou, who was Reader's backup. These players are space-eating wide bodies, checking in at over 335 pounds. That leaves the rookie, McKinnley, as the team's biggest defensive lineman at 326. It appears the goal is to get quicker and more athletic up front.

Rankins has been penciled in as the starter next to B.J. Hill. It's not like these guys are small at 305 and 311, respectively, but they are rangy and mobile for big men. It is hard to say if the Bengals are planning tweaks within their scheme, but they might give IDP managers more to work with this year.

Both Hill and Rankins have some juice as pass rushers. They had ten sacks between them last season with Rankins posting the second-highest total of his career at six. He has shown glimpses of IDP value over his eight years in the league but has never sustained much consistency. Had he not missed four games last year, Rankins would likely have had his best statistical season to date. He added 8 assists, 6 sacks, and a pair of turnovers to a career-best mark of 29 solo tackles for an average points-per-game that ranked 20th at the position. There is no reason to expect a breakout after eight years in the league, but there is a reasonable chance that Rankins can be at least useful depth in most leagues.  

Hill is the better, or at least more safe, target for IDP managers. The 2018 third-round pick of the Giants had a strong rookie season, totaling 32-15-5.5 and knocking down a couple of passes. He was on the side of milk cartons for the next two years before re-emerging with the Bengals in 2021. Hill has at least 50 combined stops in each of his three years in Cincinnati, with a career-best of 69 in 2022. He has 12.5 sacks, 7 turnovers, and 9 batted passes over those three seasons as well. There may not be any top-ten finishes in his future but Hill can be counted on as a steady second starter.

Dynasty managers will want to keep an eye on Kris Jenkins. His statistical production as a two-year starter for Michigan was not particularly impressive, but the talent is there. Jenkins totaled 91 combined stops and 4.5 sacks over 29 games with the Wolverines, but don't let the modest numbers scare you off.

Jenkins has great bloodlines. His father made the Pro Bowl four times as a defensive tackle and was a valuable IDP commodity. Like his father, Jenkins is a relentless ball of energy with quick feet, strong hands, and enough anchor to hold up as a point-of-attack run defender. He is more productive as a pass rusher than the numbers suggest, regularly getting pressure in the face of the quarterback and chasing him out of the pocket.

The physical skills are present for Jenkins to become an outstanding 3-technique tackle at the pro level, but he is unrefined. A year or two of good coaching should go a long way toward improving his technique while allowing Jenkins to develop more moves and counter moves as a pass rusher. With Hill in the final year of his contract and Rankins signed through 2025, Jenkins will be groomed to possibly take over as the starting 3-technique as early as next season.  

McKinnley Jackson could also play heavily in the team's long-term plans. He worked mostly as a zero-technique nose tackle while at Texas A&M but some scouts think Jackson would be better if he were to drop a few pounds and line up over the guard or in the center/guard gap. The Bengals run a 4-2-5 base defense so their tackles rarely line up right over the center. Like Jenkins, McKinnley's college production was not eye-catching but he has a chance to be a much bigger factor with some good coaching at the pro level.    

Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson are the Bengals established starters at defensive end. They have last year's first-round pick, Myles Murphy, waiting in the wings and quality depth in Cam Sample and Joseph Assai. Thus there are no personnel changes at the position heading to 2024.

Hubbard is not an elite pass rusher but is a consistent and dependable three-down guy who excels versus the run and will contribute significantly to the pass rush. His career best of eight sacks came in 2019 but Hubbard has at least six in five of his six years in the league. While mediocre sack totals mean he will never be an elite fantasy option, five consecutive seasons with at least 33 solo stops and 58 combined make him a quality second starter for us. Hubbard is a model of year-to-year consistency as well. He has five consecutive top-15 finishes with a pair of top-10 and a top-5 in 2019.  

Hendrickson's appeal is focused more on the big play department. He is not as stout against the run but has an extra gear that makes him one of the game's premier pass rushers. In IDP leagues, with balanced scoring and modest tackle totals, his value is kept in check. In leagues with more emphasis on sacks, Hendrickson is a star.

His numbers slumped in 2022 when the Bengals had just 30 sacks as a team. Even then, Hendrickson led the team with 8. He rebounded strongly last season with career-highs across the board. His 28 tackles, 15 assists, 3 forced fumbles, 17.5 sacks, and 3 batted passes all tied or set new career marks, while the sack total was tied for second most in the league. The key with Hendrickson is figuring out where he fits in your scoring format so he can be valued appropriately.

Myles Murphy is the wildcard here. As a first-round pick last spring, he comes with grand expectations, yet his rookie campaign was quiet, resulting in 20 combined tackles and 3 sacks while playing behind Hubbard. Murphy is somewhat of a Hubbard clone in that he stands up well as a point-of-attack defender versus the run and excels in backside pursuit, but is not an explosive upfield speed guy. He has a great motor and the work ethic to eventually become a quality three-down starter for the Bengals, though he may have to wait at least one more season to get there as both Hubbard and Hendrickson are under contract through 2025.

Murphy spelled Hubbard and Cam Sample was there when Hendrickson needed a breather last season. Joseph Ossai went from seeing over 400 snaps in 2022 to fewer than 200 last year as he was relegated to the bottom of the defensive end pecking order. At one point, both Sample and Ossai were thought to be potential future starters. That may be off the table at this stage but they do give the team quality depth at the position.

• DE Sam Hubbard – Consistent and dependable DL2
• DE Trey Hendrickson – Value dependent on the scoring system
• DE Myles Murphy – Short-term injury sleeper with strong potential long term
• DE Joseph Ossai – No impact
• DE Cameron Sample – No impact
• DE Cedric Johnson – Developmental rookie
• DT B.J. Hill – Priority DT2
• DT Sheldon Rankins – Target as depth with low DT2 upside
• DT Kris Jenkins – Dynasty alert
• DT Zachary Carter- No impact expected
• DT McKinnley Jackson – Dynasty watch list