Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 23: Carolina Panthers

Photo: USA Today Sports

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For a defense transitioning from a 4-3 to a 3-4, the Panthers did some things surprisingly well. The pass defense allowed the fewest yards in the league and the fifth-fewest yards per attempt. Only three teams allowed fewer passing touchdowns, and Carolina was tied for the fewest passes of 20+ yards. As tough as this unit was versus the pass, they were equally bad in most of the other important categories.  

Carolina finished 23rd in rushing yards allowed. Opponents didn't need to score through the air because they could stroll into the endzone on the ground against a defense that allowed a league-high 25 rushing touchdowns. The Panthers could not get pressure on the quarterback, sporting a league-low 27 sacks. They did not take the ball away, with a league-low eleven turnovers, and only three teams allowed more points.

The team used its first two draft picks on offensive skill position players but took a linebacker on day two, adding players at all three levels on day three. It didn't break the bank on any high-profile free agents, but it did spend judiciously, adding eight players. Seven of those players have a chance to start or at least hold significant roles.

They should do better in those lacking categories in 2024, but the Panthers are still missing that one elite player that all great defenses seem to have. Looking at their current roster, it doesn't look like that guy is showing up this year, either.

Defensive Linemen

When a team only has 27 sacks, it's usually not a great idea to scrap the guy who led the club with 7.5 of them. Jettison might not be the best term to describe it, but not much effort was made to keep Brian Burns from leaving. There are two things to consider when evaluating the team's decision on Burns. First, he is among the most over-rated players in the league at the position, and second, the Panthers were able to sign both D.J. Wonnum and Jadeveon Clowney and still save five million left over from what the Giants are paying him this year.

Are Wonnum and Clowney better than Burns? I might not go that far, but they did have more sacks last year, and both are upgrades against the run. Wonnum was a third-round pick of the Vikings in 2020. He was part of their edge rotation from the beginning and made a lot of starts for Minnesota over the last three years. He comes to Carolina with 23 career sacks on his resume. Wonnum has reached 8 twice in his young career, the first time in 2021 and again last season when he missed two games but was still a career-best 33-29-8 with 6 passes defended and a fumble recovery for a score. Those numbers translated to 10.7 points per game and Wonnum's first top-ten ranking.

Playing opposite Danielle Hunter has been a plus, making it hard to judge how well Wonnum's production will travel to Carolina. What we do know is that there will be no competition for the starting job and that the Panthers are willing to let their players stay on the field enough to put up good numbers. Burns played 814 snaps last season.

Jadeveon Clowney started his career as the first overall pick by the Texans in 2014. His first couple of seasons were affected by injuries, starting with a hangover from his last year at South Carolina. He spent five seasons with the Texans, including three rather productive ones, but never lived up to the billing of a first-overall pick.

Since 2018, Clowney has become the league's premier rent-a-player at the edge position. He's worked for five teams in six years and has nine sacks in three of those seasons. The problem with Clowney is consistency. We never know if he will be the guy who had nine sacks for the Texans, Browns, and Ravens or the one who had three for the Seahawks, none for the Titans, and two in his second year with Cleveland. What we do know is that Clowney doesn't make a lot of tackles. He had 40, 41, and 37 solos in his last three years with Houston, but over the past five seasons, Clowney's best is 24. He is still looking for that elusive ten-sack season and his first top-twelve ranking. Neither of those marks will likely be achieved this year either.  

Carolina's depth on the edge is mostly a collection of second or third-year guys drafted in the middle-rounds or later with limited experience. The one exception is former Jaguars' first-round bust, K'Lavon Chaisson. Jacksonville invested four years and a lot of money in him. What they got was 71 total tackles, 5 sacks, and 2 batted passes. Maybe the change of venue will get him going, but don't hold your breath.

Wonnum and Clowney will land on a roster in most IDP leagues, but neither is sure to be more than depth for us. The Panthers have a lot more to offer at the tackle position. The challenge for us is deciding which Derrick Brown we will see in 2024. Will it be the one who was 30-37-1 with a pick, 7 batted passes, and a rank of 17th in 2022, or the one that piled up a league-leading (for the position) 103 combined tackles with 2 sacks, 6 swatted passes, and a pick, to rank second among tackles last year? Considering that 2023 was Brown's first experience in a three-man front, and he killed it. I would lean toward top-ten expectations.    

A'Shawn Robinson is set to start at the other outside tackle position. He, too, could provide useful numbers for those of us in leagues starting two tackles. Like Brown, Robinson is limited as a pass rusher. He has seven sacks over eight seasons, with none in the last two. He does make a lot of tackles for the position, though. Robinson totaled 62 combined in 2023. He missed time in 2020 and 2022 but has at least 32 solo tackles in each of the other five since his rookie campaign in 2016. Pick him up as depth at the end of your draft in start-two leagues, but don't expect much more.  

Shy Tuttle is the favorite to round out the starting lineup at nose tackle, but he is not a lock. Nick Thurman or rookie Jaden Crumedy could get their names in the hat with a strong training camp. Regardless of who wins the title, don't look for much production from the position. The Panthers often pull their nose tackle for an extra defensive back on passing downs. Tuttle held the job last year averaging less than four and a half points per game.

• Edge D.J. Wonnum – Good Edge3 with a little upside
• Edge Jadeveon Clowney – Solid depth if he has a good year
• Edge K'Lavon Chaisson – No impact
• Edge D.J. Johnson – Injury sleeper with limited upside
• Edge Amare Barno – No impact
• DT Derrick Brown – Target as a solid DT1 with top-five potential
• DT A'Shawn Robinson – Decent DT3 without much upside
• DT Jaden Crumedy – No impact
• DT Shy Tuttle – No impact
• DT Nick Thurman – no impact