The Bills' defense has been strong over the last three seasons. The 2023 edition gave up more runs of 20+ yards than they would have liked and ranked 27th in yards per carry, but Buffalo was in the top half of the league in every other important category and top ten in most. They were 15th in rush yards, 6th in passing yards, 7th in pass plays of 20+, and 8th in yards per attempt. The Bills were even better in the areas that matter most to fantasy managers. Their 54 sacks were fourth most in the league, only two teams forced more turnovers, and three teams allowed fewer points.
Maybe the most impressive part of the team's 2023 performance is that they did it despite injuries to some key players. By week five, they were without starting tackle DaQuan Jones, linebacker Matt Milano, and number one corner Tre'Davious White. Credit the coaching staff with a fine job of holding things together.
The coaching staff may have to pull another rabbit out of their proverbial hat if the unit is to continue playing at such a high level. Buffalo found themselves in a salary cap pinch this offseason. They could not re-sign Leonard Floyd who led the team in sacks and the secondary was ravaged. White and his fellow corner Dane Jackson, along with safety Jordan Poyer all took the free-agent train out of town. The team could also be without their other starting safety as Micah Hyde has not been an offseason participant while considering retirement. The team is not counting on Hyde and made plans to move on without him.
It will be a challenge for new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich but at least he does not have to implement a new scheme. Babich was promoted from within after head coach Sean McDermott pulled double duty in 2023.
Defensive Linemen
The defensive line accounted for 40.5 of the team's 54 sacks last year. Floyd's departure will hurt, but he is not the only player from the group who has moved on. Longtime edge contributor Shaq Lawson is also gone, as are tackles Poona Ford, Jordan Phillips, Linval Joseph, and Tim Settle. Between them, the four tackles accounted for 1144 snaps in 2023.
In Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, Buffalo has an outstanding tandem of starters on the inside. Oliver has been a mainstay in Buffalo's lineup since joining the team as a first-round pick in 2019. He is a steady contributor both on the field and on the stat sheet. As the 3-technique tackle, Oliver averaged 26-15-4, a turnover, and 3 batted passes over his first three seasons. While those are not big numbers, they were enough to make him roster-worthy as a low DT2 or solid DT3.
Many players put up their best numbers in contract years. Oliver missed that memo. He signed an extension last June that will keep him in Buffalo through at least the 2027 season and then blew up the box scores for the best production of his career. In 2023, Oliver turned in personal highs in tackles at 34, tackles for loss at 14, and sacks with 9.5, and he did it despite missing two games.
With a line of 34-17-9.5, a turnover, and 3 batted passes, Oliver made the top ten for the first time. The question is, will it be the last or simply the beginning of a new trend? When the team selected him ninth overall in 2019, he was expected to be this kind of player. He missed several games in 2022 and was not a full go until after the team's bye in week eight. Over the eight games when Oliver was healthy, he was on pace to go 38-29-5 so I will lean toward this being the beginning of a trend. Oliver could backslide a little or post even better numbers in 2024. What we know for sure is that the floor and ceiling are high.
Jones missed most of the regular season with a pectoral injury. He returned for the final two games and the playoff run so it is safe to say the injury is behind him. At six feet four and 320 pounds, Jones is the anchor of the run defense and a player who soaks up constant double teams to keep the linebackers clean. While he is an important piece on the field, Jones is not an option for IDP managers. His best numbers over a ten-year career are 31 tackles, 21 assists, and 3 sacks, all coming in different seasons.
To replenish the depth chart, Buffalo signed veterans Austin Johnson and DeShawn Williams and then drafted DeWayne Carter in round three. Johnson and Williams were good additions. They have plenty of experience as starters and signed cap-friendly contracts. They can provide quality snaps when the starters need a rest or could be serviceable starters in the event of an injury. Johnson had a big season with the Giants in 2021 and Williams had 4.5 sacks for Denver in 2022, but neither has much fantasy potential.
For now, Carter will compete with the backups for playing time, but he was not drafted to be a career backup. In some ways, he is a poor man's Ed Oliver. Carter is at his best as a one-gap penetrator who can shoot gaps and disrupt behind the line of scrimmage. He can be pushed around a bit by powerful blockers if they get their hands on him squarely, but he excels at the kind of line stunts and games the Bills use to keep that from happening.
While he is considered an average run defender, Carter gets after the passer as an inside rusher. He became a starter for Duke in 2021. In three seasons with that role, he produced 114 combined tackles, 11 sacks 7 turnovers, 11 batted passes, and a pair of touchdowns.
Buffalo had 54 sacks last year, so how is it that their two best edge guys, Leonard Floyd and Gregory Rousseau, ranked 47 and 48, respectively, among edge defenders? The answer is that they didn't make enough tackles. The reason they were short on tackles is simple: they were not on the field enough. The Bills used too many players in a rotation that saw five edge defenders play at least 258 snaps while none logged more than 585. Considering the limited opportunity, Rousseau's 30 tackles and 12 assists were not bad.
With Floyd and Lawson gone and a 35-year-old Von Miller, who is often hurt, as the third man, the team is not as deep at the position in 2024. They added Dawuane Smoot to help fill the void. Smoot had 23.5 sacks for the Jaguars over the last five seasons and should have a significant role, likely as the third man on the edge. Either we will see a lot of Smoot, fifth-round pick Javon Solomon, or Rousseau and fellow starter A.J. Epenesa will be on the field more.
Rousseau played 585 snaps in 2023. If we project his totals over an 800-play season, we get 41-17-7 with 3 turnovers, 6 batted passes, and a point total that lands him on the cusp of being a second starter. He had 41 solo tackles on about 100 fewer snaps as a rookie in 2021 and produced 8 sacks on 420 plays in 2022, so we know the potential is there if they just let the dog hunt.
Epenesa was the team's second-round pick in 2020. He has been part of the rotation from day one and has provided some spot starts as an injury replacement. He is moving into the role more by default than design. Epenesa has six sacks in each of the last two seasons, so maybe the organization deems him ready. With 20 combined tackles, 6 sacks, 4 turnovers, and 8 batted passes on 376 plays last year, they might be onto something.
There is no guarantee that they won't fill the rotation with warm bodies and continue as usual. The problem is that we are not going to know until week one. It might be a worthwhile gamble to stick one of these guys on the bottom of your roster and see what happens. If it doesn't pan out, we always look for guys to cut for those week-one waivers anyway.
- Edge Greg Rosseau – Watchlist player with Edge2 upside
- Edge A.J. Epenesa – Sleeper with edge2 potential
- Edge Von Miller – No impact
- Edge Dawuane Smoot - Injury sleeper with limited upside
- Edge Javon Solomon – Developmental rookie
- DT Ed Oliver – Low DT2 floor with top-ten ceiling
- DT DaQuan Jones – No impact
- DT Austin Johnson – No impact
- DT DeWayne Carter – Dynasty target
- DT DeShawn Williams – No impact
Linebackers
At this point last year, we were trying to figure out what the Bills linebackers would look like. This year, we are watching to see if Matt Milano has fully recovered from his broken leg. Milano was the one linebacker we knew would be in the lineup; we were not sure where he would line fit. That part of the equation is solved. Milano lined up on the weak side, playing every snap with the first-team defense before the week five injury. All the reports out of Buffalo on Milano's recovery are positive. He is ahead of schedule, participated in OTAs, and is expected to be ready for training camp without restrictions.
A glance at Milano's point totals for last season's games suggests he will be a quality LB3 or better for us. I am not so certain about that, though. His average of 11.1 points per game looks good. It is how he got there that casts some doubt. Four games plus eleven plays is not much of a sample size, but it is all we have to go on.
Three games into last season, Milano was sitting with a modest 7 solo tackles and 10 assists. He reached double-digit points in two, but only because he picked off passes in weeks one and two. He has ten career picks over seven seasons, with a career-high of three in 2018 and 2022, so interceptions in back-to-back games to start the season are an unsustainable fluke.
After those first three games that included a dismal performance (statistically) of 1-4 in week three, Milano gave us a ray of hope. He went 8-2 with a forced fumble in week four, then recorded three solo tackles on the first eleven plays against Miami before leaving with the injury in week five. It is a mixed bag that leaves room for both optimism and pessimism. All things considered, I'll lean toward the optimistic side.
There is no sign of pessimism when talking about Terrell Bernard. He was banged up last summer, missing much of training camp and all of the preseason. Right up to week one, we were uncertain where he would line up or if he would even start. All concerns were quickly dispelled once we got to kickoff.
Bernard opened as the starting middle linebacker, playing every snap and setting the pace with 11 total tackles in week one. When the numbers were all in, he was 84-59-6.5 with 6 turnovers, 5 passes defended, and a ranked sixth at the position. Bernard's consistency was as impressive as his overall numbers. He totaled nine or more points in fourteen games with at least 12.5 points in ten.
There was a scare in the playoffs when Bernard left the field on a cart with what looked like a serious ankle injury. The Bills and their fans breathed a sigh of relief after learning it was a bad sprain. He is healthy now and ready to pick up where he left off.
With the injury to Milano, the Bills learned that their linebacker depth was suspect. They gave rookie Dorian Williams a look and when he underperformed, they switched to Tyrel Dodson for a while. The team would eventually lure A.J. Klein off the couch to start in the playoffs. They are looking for improvement from Williams in his second season but addressed the position by signing veterans Nicholas Morrow and Deion Jones.
- WLB Matt Milano – Solid third starter with a little risk
- MLB Terrel Bernard – Quality LB1
- SLB Nicholas Morrow – Injury sleeper with limited upside
- WLB Deion Jones – Injury sleeper with limited upside
- MLB Dorian Williams – No impact expected
Defensive Backs
The Buffalo secondary will look different, but at least we have a fairly good idea of what it will look like. Taron Johnson is locked in as the slot defender for the fifth consecutive season. Christian Benford earned the starting job on the outside before last season and will continue in that role. The team traded for Rasul Douglas about three weeks after the injury to Tre'Davious White and plugged him in as the other starter. With a year left on his contract, Douglas is expected to keep the job, though he could be pushed by 2022 first-round pick Kaiir Elam.
It has been a long time since we saw a Bills secondary without Micah Hyde or Jordan Poyer. The loss of these two could present a big problem. Taylor Rapp was the third safety last season and projects as one of the starters, with free-agent addition Mike Edwards signed to fill the other spot. We should not overlook the addition of second-round pick Cole Bishop, who could be in the thick of a three-way competition.
There was not as much fantasy value in this secondary last year as we had seen in the past, but there is still plenty of potential. The safe bet here is Johnson. He led all corners with 72 solo and 98 total tackles in 2023. With five splash plays and eight passes defended, Johnson ranked eighth at corner. It was the most productive year of Johnson's career, but not by much. Since 2020, he has consistently been at least a good CB2. There is no reason to think that will not continue.
Douglas has become a journeyman, playing for his fourth team since 2019. He put up useful numbers for stretches at each of those stops. Douglas puts up solid tackle totals for a corner and, over the last three seasons, has 14 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, a pair of sacks, and 40 passes defended. Douglas averaged over nine and a half points per game in all three of those seasons, with a career-best of 10.1 in 2023.
We will need to keep a close eye on the safety position. Rapp and Edwards are penciled in as the starters, but Cole Bishop could be in the mix. Rapp has put up decent numbers in three of his five seasons. The best came with the Rams in 2021 when he was 65-31-1 with 5 turnovers. He may not be a long-term answer at strong safety, but he can be fairly productive for as long as he is there. Edwards is a steady contributor on the field, but the five-year veteran has never been one to fill the stat sheet.
It is Bishop who has the highest ceiling of the safeties. He can play either safety position, but his skill set leans toward that of a physical box safety. Bishop was a three-year starter at Utah and played a lot of football for a rookie. His best selling point is Bishop's college production. Over 36 games at Utah, he racked up 198 combined tackles, 7.5 sacks, 8 turnovers, and 12 pass breakups. He is a dynasty target for sure, and it would not be a surprise to see Bishop come out of training camp as the starting strong safety.
- SS Taylor Rapp – Potential depth
- FS Mike Edwards – No impact
- SS Cole Bishop – Sleeper with good potential
- FS Damar Hamlin – No impact
- CB Rasul Douglas – CB3 with some upside
- CB Christian Benford – Marginal impact expected
- CB Taron Johnson – Priority CB2 with top-12 upside
- CB Kaiir Elam – No impact
- CB Cam Lewis – No impact
That's a wrap for the Bills. We hit the homestretch next, kicking off the NFC East.
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