Like quarterbacks, wide receivers are the best assets you can hold in dynasty fantasy football leagues. We are good at projecting their annual production. They hold value through bumpy stretches of production. They have long careers. Those factors make them worthwhile players to trade for and hold.
If running backs are the cryptocurrency of dynasty markets, high-end wide receivers are akin to mutual funds. Of course, we get the rare Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill that unexpectedly boom in value. And first-round picks occasionally bust. But the value moves slower than other positions. In my running back article, I discussed how players like Javonte Williams and Kyren Williams have aggressively fallen and risen in consensus dynasty rankings. We don’t see that same type of volatility in dynasty wide receiver rankings.
Wide receivers work well in any build. If you’re rebuilding, invest in wide receivers. If you’re contending, you want a stable of strong wide receivers.
As with every article in this series, this is not a flat list of rankings. In each tier, receivers are ranked by my preference. However, the players are lumped with other players in similar situations or scoring profiles.
In a startup, I almost exclusively draft quarterbacks and wide receivers early. We’ll cover tight ends next week, and I will look at a select few in the early rounds. However, quarterbacks and wide receivers possess an insulated value that running backs do not. Wide receivers are safe, long-lasting, and score a lot of points.
I’m unlikely to trade away elite wide receivers in trades. Unless I have a positional need for a quarterback or tight end and get an elite one in return, the top-tier guys are typically on my “Do Not Trade” list. Trading away young and productive wide receivers for picks rarely works out.
So let’s dive in, starting with my aptly named first tier of wide receivers.
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Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings and Tiers
You Can Pry Them From My Cold, Dead Fingers
As I alluded to in the intro, there are few situations where I am even entertaining a trade offer for these players. I need to be contending with a hole at quarterback or tight end, and getting an elite one in return. You’ll often hear these guys valued at “two firsts,” but I would rarely trade these guys away for picks alone. They already surpassed their pick value, and a first-round pick could be a bust.
All four of these wide receivers will produce for the next five-plus years. Even a season-ending injury in 2024 would keep their value insulated as high-end assets. They have all proven capable of elite production and are entering their age-25 seasons or younger. I listed them in order of my personal preference, but they are all interchangeable within this tier.
CeeDee Lamb rose the ranks after his eye-popping 2023 campaign with 1,862 scrimmage yards. Whether he stays in Dallas long-term or ends up in a different city, he’s displayed enough versatility in his playstyle to succeed anywhere. Justin Jefferson fell from the consensus WR1 to WR2 after Lamb’s breakout and the loss of Kirk Cousins. But if anyone dares to sell Jefferson low, they are making a grave mistake. Jefferson had the best three-year start to his career in NFL history. If Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy opens a buy window for Jefferson, do whatever you can to add him to your team. Chase was in the same tier as Jefferson last year, and injuries to him and Joe Burrow caused a mini dip in value. However, the same practices should apply to Chase as they do to Jefferson. If anyone is selling, try to buy. Amon-Ra St. Brown took a bit longer to crack into this tier. Fighting an uphill battle against draft capital, he has finally proven himself as an elite asset here to stay. Over the last two seasons, only Tyreek Hill, Jefferson, Lamb, and Keenan Allen have averaged more points per game. St. Brown received mega-extension and has the security of being tied to Jared Goff for the foreseeable future. Any concerns about draft capital can be thrown out the window.
In dynasty startups, these wide receivers are viable targets after the first few quarterbacks are off the board. They shouldn’t slip into Round 2. They are the safest tier of players in dynasty wide receiver rankings.
Could Make The Jump
These are arguably the best wide receivers to target in trades. They could quickly find themselves in the tier above. Last year, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown both would have found themselves here. These wide receivers have all done enough to insulate their value for the next few seasons. Even if they don’t make the leap this year, you can likely flip them for similar value next offseason.
The only thing keeping Puka Nacua out of the tier ahead is his lack of draft capital and history of sustained success. Like Amon-Ra St. Brown, he has more to prove than elite prospects. However, if he builds off his rookie-year success, he can quickly find himself entrenched in the elite tier of receivers by the season’s midway point. Garrett Wilson has yet to produce as an elite fantasy points compiler so far. But we know the talent is there. He’s displayed an ability to draw targets, catch the ball, and make plays after the catch; all critical requirements for a wide receiver. If he takes the expected step forward with better quarterback play this year, he will quickly climb in value. Chris Olave’s story so far has been similar. We know he’s good, but quarterback play has inhibited his ability to score points. Unlike Wilson, his situation is almost identical to last year’s, making a breakout harder to anticipate.
The three rookies are only suppressed in value because we’ve yet to see it. But Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze all have elite prospect profiles. Just a glimpse of their potential will cause them to shoot up dynasty wide receiver rankings, and rightfully so. Harrison enters a dream situation in Year 1, tied to an elite veteran quarterback with a history of supporting fantasy WR1s. Nabers’ quarterback situation is a bit shakier, but he’s the unquestioned lead receiver in a decrepit Giants’ locker room. Rome Odunze’s 2024 outlook is challenging to predict as he has stout target competition. But the expectation of being tied to Caleb Williams will insulate his value for the next few seasons.
Drake London is probably the most polarizing on this list. But he is also a great example of how safe wide receivers can be. He’s never eclipsed 1,000 yards or caught more than four touchdowns through two seasons. He also displayed a concerning drop in volume and efficiency from Year 1 to Year 2. His target rate fell from 32.4% to 23.0%. His target share dropped from 29.4% to 23.3%. His yards per route run dipped from 2.4 to 1.9. But the excitement surrounding the Kirk Cousins signing has inflated his value. Like the others in this tier, he has the opportunity to shoot up the dynasty wide receiver rankings. But a disappointing Year 3 campaign could cause his value to plummet. He is, by far, the most volatile wide receiver in this tier.
Buy On The Wrong Side Of 25
- A.J. Brown
- Brandon Aiyuk
- DeVonta Smith
- DJ Moore
- Jaylen Waddle
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- DK Metcalf
Wide receivers age much more gracefully than most other positions. Still, a buy window opens when a wide receiver turns 26. All of these receivers are entering their age-26-or-older season. They have also all displayed abilities to be elite fantasy point compilers. And rookie picks are not a sure thing. These players are all still young enough that I’d be willing to trade first-round rookie picks for them, especially if you’re contending. Rebuilders might look to tier down for younger and less-proven players, but these guys can still work in any build. They aren’t at risk of falling off the age curve for a few more seasons and can be had a bit more affordably than younger guys.
A.J. Brown is an excellent example of elite peripheral data becoming elite production in a better situation. Everything during his career in Tennessee told us he was good. But a trade to Philadelphia has provided us with back-to-back top-six seasons. Going into his age-27 season, there’s no reason to expect that trend to stop. Brandon Aiyuk has also displayed elite peripheral data. Unfortunately, a run-first offense and intense target competition have capped his ceiling. You’re getting high-end WR2 output for now. But changes to his environment could quickly push him up in rankings. DJ Moore, another guy with a great efficiency profile, finally broke out in 2023 after a change of scenery. He might struggle a bit in 2024 with a rookie quarterback and Keenan Allen, but he’s the same age as A.J. Brown and should have plenty of productive years ahead of him. Jaylen Waddle has had an interesting career. In Year 1, he was a target hog and considered an elite asset in dynasty wide receiver rankings. In Year 2 with Tyreek Hill, his usage fell off a cliff, but his efficiency spiked. And then, in Year 3, he balanced out in both usage and efficiency while battling many injuries. He deserves to be considered a premium asset, but his recent struggles to produce could open up a nice buy window. Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf both appear destined to be long-term fantasy WR2s. Both failed to reach their hopeful ceilings as prospects. That, coupled with their rising ages, makes them cheap targets. They are the two players in their tier you might be able to pry away in a trade for just a second-round rookie pick.
Aiyuk and Waddle probably have the most room for growth in their expected range of outcomes. But most of these wide receivers have shown us who they are at this point. They’ll maintain the value they currently have for a few more years. They’ll produce when on the field. And they can be had reasonably cheaply. These players can still work in any build but should be priority targets for contenders looking to build an empire.
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