Dynasty Trading Post: Slow-Starting Tight Ends

Welcome to the dynasty trading post, where optimizing strategy, roster construction, format, and player value oscillations are examined weekly with examples and completed dynasty trades.

This week, we'll focus on the big names of the tight end position with a slow start to the season.

*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore

Theme of the Week: Sample Size

Mark Andrews is one of the few unquestioned elite tight ends over the past half a decade in the NFL, full stop. Andrews has five straight TE6 or better finishes in aPPG entering 2024. Only Travis Kelce and George Kittle have longer active streaks at the position. Another key stat for Andrews within the position is the active tight end list with 2.00 yards-per-route-run or higher for their career. The list is Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, and (three games into his career) Brock Bowers. A retired recent inclusion is Rob Gronkowski. Earning targets is another rare trait for tight ends over a large sample size. Mark Andrews has a 24% target-per-route-run rate in his career. The 23% TPRR threshold eliminates everyone but Andrews, Jordan Reed, and Brock Bowers. 

In doing a deep dive on Andrews career comps (there are only a select few), I looked specifically for the most extreme fall-off possibilities. Andrews is TE30+ through the opening three weeks and there is a 'sky is falling' feel out there.

Zach Ertz fell to TE26 after a string of four straight TE5 or better finishes in his prime. After that TE26 aPPG finish, he bounced back to have two more in the top-12.

Jimmy Graham was elite for four straight years, then 'dropped' to the top 12 for three straight years, then two more in the top 18 of the position. Graham was a steady decline in terms of career arc.

Darren Waller is the only other remotely close comparison (a much lesser peak) and was derailed by injuries and then retired this offseason.

Those are the declining dramatically at this juncture or post-peak examples.

The true comps for Andrews are Tony Gonzalez, Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, and George Kittle. None of them finished (TBD on Kittle) outside the top 12 until a handful of seasons beyond this point outside of Rob Gronkowski missing a season due to injury.

In short, if Andrews mires through this year, even outside the top 12, it will be a historically outlier of epic proportions considering his profile. 

It has been a slow start for Andrews without question, but a small sample size of three games, including a week where Andrews was shut out and Baltimore threw 15 passes in the overtly positive game script against Dallas. If it is Halloween and Andrews is still miring well beyond the position's starting zone for October, the reassessment can begin. Until then, Andrews is one of the glaring profile buys with the opportunity squarely until he rebounds with a more typical Andrews pop performance.

Here are a few key Andrews trades this week with him as a buy valuation and recommendation:

• Buy Andrews for 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (1PPR TE boost)
• Buy Andrews for Jameson Williams (2PPR for TE)
• Buy Andrews for Zack Moss (2PPR for TE)
• Buy Andrews, 25 1 for Drake London
• Buy Andrews for D'Andre Swift, Jonnu Smith (1PPR TE boost)