As the calendar turns to November, we enter the stretch run of the dynasty season. The good news is that now is the easiest time to find win-win trade deals. Non-contending teams should be the most aggressive in pursuing trades. These teams cannot afford to bleed value and should focus entirely on securing the most valuable assets for future seasons. The concept of bleeding value means that you should not roster players who will lose a high percentage of their value the moment the fantasy playoffs wrap up in Week 17.
The key to success at this time of year is to clearly separate dynasty player values into two distinct categories: 2024 Value and Future Value. Splitting player values into these two categories is the major focus of this month's Dynasty Trade Value Chart article.
There are pros and cons to any numerical scale for dynasty valuations. One of the biggest advantages of the scale used in the original Dynasty Trade Value Chart is that it simplifies this separation between the current season and future seasons. The entire valuation is built upon fantasy points per game above replacement (PPGAR). For example, if replacement-level production at running back is 10.0 PPG and Saquon Barkley is projected for 20.0 PPG for the rest of the 2024 season, his single-season PPGAR is 10. We might then project him at roughly 8.0 PPGAR in 2025 and assume a further drop to 5.0 PPGAR in 2026. With these simple calculations, we can quickly add up the values to create useful dynasty valuations, offering a clear way to contextualize player values for our dynasty leagues.
Rest of Season Values
In the tables below, you will see each player’s value split out into his 2024 Value and Future Value (2025 and beyond). Before getting into the players and values, I want to explain how I came up with the values for the remainder of the 2024 season. They combine (1) the Footballguys Rest-of-Season projections and (2) mid-season best ball ADP. Specifically, I used ADP from Drafters.com 2nd Half Best Ball Challenge, which runs from Week 9 through Week 17. I firmly believe this ADP is the best reflection of how the market of engaged fantasy players truly values players right now and who we most want on our rosters for the stretch run. ADP captures the combination of floor and upside at least as well as a single projection.
Quarterback
Quarterback production has the longest window of any position, making it the most challenging spot to find win-win deals at this time of year. There are a few quarterbacks who fall more into the “win-now” category, such as Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, and Aaron Rodgers. However, the challenge for non-contenders trying to trade one of these older quarterbacks to a contender is that none of them are putting up elite numbers, and most contenders likely already have one or two better options on their roster. Turning an aging quarterback into a valuable long-term asset may be difficult this season given the mediocre fantasy performance of the aging quarterbacks. In fact, Kirk Cousins (ADP of 125) is the only quarterback older than 31 with a mid-season redraft ADP of below 140.
The best strategy for rebuilding teams would be to target a young quarterback on the roster of a contender who is not contributing this season. Michael Penix Jr.., J.J. McCarthy, and Anthony Richardson are three young quarterbacks with legitimate fantasy upside worth gambling on if you are a quarterback-needy team in the midst of a rebuild. With a mediocre rookie quarterback class on deck in 2025, these young quarterbacks with potential could see a solid value bump in the offseason.
I am going to split the tables below for the quarterback position into one quarterback and superflex this month to account for the fact that I am showing 2024 Value, Future Value, and Overall Dynasty Value. This month, I am also breaking down the player values into general tiers.
- One of my arguments in favor of buying Brock Purdy last offseason was his underrated athleticism. We are seeing his upside in that department this season. He has 210 rushing yards and three touchdowns through eight games.
- Bo Nix is on pace for 627 rushing yards and 8.2 rushing touchdowns. I knew he was athletic but his rushing production has greatly exceeded my expectations and gives him some appeal even in the non-superflex format.
- Of the players above, Justin Fields and J.J. McCarthy are the two who I would be most interested in rostering in the non-superflex format. They are the lone quarterbacks in this tier with realistic Top 12 upside. The rest are depth options and bye-week replacements.
- Fears that the Jim Harbaugh offense will completely destroy Justin Herbert's fantasy value have decreased over the past month. Since the Week 5 bye, he has been averaging 286.8 passing yards per game with incredible efficiency (adjusted yards per attempt of 9.45). He is a potential buy-low candidate in the Superflex format.
- Drake Maye's rushing production is exciting. While he is raw, it feels like a worst-case scenario is that he ends up being a rich man's Daniel Jones. Jones is midway through his sixth season as a starter.
- Anthony Richardson is one of the season's biggest disappointments. On rosters I have him, I will likely hold. Even if that means going down with the ship. While I am not actively trying to trade for him, I would at least consider buying for a mid-second rookie pick. He is risky but has the sort of fantasy upside worth gambling on.
- Michael Penix Jr. is my top trade target if I am a rebuilding team in the Superflex format. He is going to have to sit behind Kirk Cousins for a while, but a Jordan Love career arc is not out of the question.
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