Free agency starts in two weeks, which is why some of the biggest swings in dynasty trade value occur in March. This will be especially true in 2024 because the overall landscape at running back is incredibly murky. The expectation is we will see some big winners and losers at the position between now and when the dust settles after the first wave of free agency. The landing spots and the details of the financial commitments teams are willing to make to veteran backs should have a major impact on how we value those players moving forward. Footballguys will have instant reactions to every fantasy-relevant signing. In addition, I will update the player values in the Dynasty Trade Value Chart every few days in response to the latest news. March also brings a slew of new information about NFL Draft prospects. We always see the consensus on top prospects shift due to the NFL combine and Pro Days. The Dynasty Trade Value Chart includes a tab that shows 2024 Rookie Pick values that can be customized to your league. These values will also be updated regularly to reflect the latest buzz on top prospects and whenever there are athletic testing numbers that move the needle.
The main focus of this month's article is on bigger-picture lessons we can learn from comparing past dynasty startup auctions to auctions that are taking place this offseason. Analyzing real auction results provides insights on the following topics, which we will explore in depth:
- Evidence in favor of the concept that rookies are systemically undervalued (especially non-premium rookies)
- The stickiness of player values from one year to the next at each position and what that should mean for our startup strategies
- The quarterback traps you should avoid in Superflex startups
- Further evidence you should be wary of wide receivers approaching Age 30 (including one who turned 30 today)
- The dynasty impact of the changing of the guard at tight end
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