Photo: USA Today Sports

This month’s article focuses on understanding the different sources of upside in dynasty leagues. One lens through which we can view fantasy upside is to break it into two pieces  – (1) the player’s share of the offensive pie and (2) the overall size of the offensive pie. The two breakout rookie wide receivers from last season, Puka Nacua and Tank Dell, are great examples of how not all dynasty upside is created equal. Nothing was surprising about the Rams having a productive passing game last season. We had a large sample size (14 years' worth) of Matthew Stafford passing offenses to tell us there would be receiving yardage and touchdowns to go around in the 2023 Rams offense. In fact, the passing offense in Los Angeles was not any better than expected. The size of the pie was what we thought it would be. Nacua’s breakout resulted entirely from earning more of the offensive pie than expected. At this time last season, Nacua eclipsing Cooper Kupp as Stafford's go-to target would have seemed far-fetched.

On the other end of the spectrum, Dell’s pre-injury fantasy breakout was less about the fact that he emerged as one of the go-to options in the Texans' passing offense. That was not a shock. The depth chart was wide open, and he was the 69th overall pick last spring. Instead, his meteoric rise in dynasty value was due mainly to the Texans' passing offense and rookie quarterback CJ Stroud exceeding all reasonable expectations. Our entire view of the Texans' offense shifted. It is a textbook example of a player who benefitted from situational upside.

Finding the Next...

July's Dynasty Trade Value Chart article will not be a "Finding the Next Puka Nacua" article. However, there is value in looking at the past for lessons. Now is a great time to look back and remind ourselves of the ADP of some of 2023's breakout players and look to see if we can spot trends that might help us put together the best rosters we can right now. To do so, I compared each player's late-June 2023 Dynasty ADP (Superflex) to their current ADP. Below are the Top 10 ADP risers over the past 12 months:

The 10 players above went outside the Top 150 overall in startups last offseason. Their ages listed in the table above were their age at this time last year. The first thing that leaps out about the list is that every single player was 25 or younger. Unsurprisingly, our biggest breakout players all had youth on their side. However, it is interesting to note that six of the Top 7 were young veterans but not rookies. Many (myself included) can become too hyper-focused on rookies and forget about guys like Kyren Williams and Nico Collins when trying to target potential breakout players later in startup drafts and auctions.

The list above is the Top 10 biggest overall risers, but we can also look at the biggest risers among the players who were going in the Top 150 of Superflex startups this time last year: