When the Bengals lost their eighth game in Week 13, my mind immediately shifted to mock drafts. It's that time of year. You may be in a similar situation with your Dynasty teams right now. Once the season is over and the hopes of a championship or playoff berth have ended, it's natural to start focusing on draft picks. We will take an early look at the 2025 rookie class, but hold off for one more month before going heavy on rookie pick talk. Many managers aren't concerned with draft picks at all right now because they're in the thick of competing to win their leagues. With many trade deadlines already passed, trading might not play a significant role at this stage. However, waivers and lineup decisions are critical during this time. I spent a good amount of time looking at schedules, health, and recent trends to update player values for the remainder of the 2024 season and will include those numbers on the trade value charts below for running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

In December's Dynasty Trade Value Chart article, we will touch on the following topics:

• An early look at 2025 rookie pick values based upon consensus mock drafts and historical data.
• Some thoughts on rookie quarterback values.
• Balancing risk versus reward when valuing Anthony Richardson.
• The overall RB1 who is separating from the pack.
• Accounting for changes in how the NFL is valuing older veteran running backs.
• Value bumps for Puka Nacua, Ladd McConkey, and Jerry Jeudy.
• Considering a change in how to approach the tight end position.

2025 Rookie Picks

As noted above, we will wait until January to really dive into the 2025 rookie class. In the meantime, I want to add a link to a simple tool I made two years ago:

Rookie Pick Calculator

The tool above automatically scrapes the latest consensus mock drafts from the Mock Draft Database.

It then applies a positional value algorithm to estimate a player's trade value in a PPR dynasty league based only on his position and projected NFL Draft capital. These values will not account for the player's individual skill set or scouting report but do provide a good starting point to contextualize how much value each incoming rookie is likely to have. The tool also provides a great way to estimate specific rookie pick values in advance of the draft. 

Note: Travis Hunter is listed as a Cornerback in the Mock Draft Database. Thus, he is not included at all in the rookie pick calculator tool. Figuring out how to value Hunter and estimating how much time he will spend on offense at the next level will be one of our biggest challenges between now and April.

Quarterback

For each position, I have broken the players into tiers. At quarterback, each table below lists the player's positional rank, age, value in single quarterback leagues, and then value in Superfle leagues. 

I now have four rookie quarterbacks in this top tier. Three of the biggest positive movers over the past month have been Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix. Williams has bounced back in a big way after coaching changes. Nix has been playing winning football, and his partnership with Sean Payton looks like a match made in heaven. We will go more in-depth on Maye below.  

Drake Maye
The slow but steady emergence of Maye as one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league continues. I update my dynasty trade values every week, and I've found myself bumping Maye up a point or two each time. Two things have become clearer the more I watch him: (1) he is not as raw a passer as many pre-draft scouting reports suggested, and (2) his athleticism translates well to the NFL level.

The sample size is still relatively small (38 carries), but 9.1 yards per carry is extraordinarily impressive. As with Josh Allen before him, the scouting reports underestimated just how much his combination of size and speed would enhance his game at the NFL level.

That said, not everything is sunshine and rainbows. Maye has thrown at least one interception in each of his last five games. Additionally, for Maye to emerge as a fantasy QB1, New England will need to figure out how to acquire skilled wide receivers. The Bengals drafting Tee Higgins one round after selecting Joe Burrow helped accelerate Burrow's development. At this point, it's safe to say Ja'Lynn Polk is nowhere near becoming Maye's version of Higgins, and there doesn't appear to be a Ja'Marr Chase in the 2025 draft class.

Anthony Richardson
In June's dynasty trade value chart article, I discussed dynasty startup draft strategy and emphasized the importance of building sturdy rosters in the early rounds:

Let's define sturdy as players (or picks) who are (1) highly likely to be long-term starting-caliber fantasy options and (2) unlikely to see a big dip in their dynasty trade value over the short term. We will go more in-depth with some specific examples of players who fit the mold of being "sturdy" values when discussing targets at each position to best illustrate the concept. But think of somebody like Justin Herbert. He just turned 26 years old. He's locked in as the long-term starter, and it is hard to envision a scenario where he gets benched any time soon. Herbert (2.05 ADP) is a sturdy, long-term building block.

Both last offseason and now, as we approach Week 14, there's very little sturdiness in Richardson's value. I would be surprised if Richardson manages to do enough over the next few games to completely solidify his status as Indianapolis's long-term starter without any lingering doubts.

That said, I also mentioned in that June article the importance of incorporating some "flash" into our dynasty rosters—players with significant upside who can either garner massive trade hauls or be elite fantasy performers on our teams. With how much Richardson's value has dropped this season, he now offers the potential to signficiantly outperform his current valuation. 

Determining where to balance this risk versus reward in 2025 startups (or offseason trades) is one of the most fascinating questions we'll face. My inclination is to roll the dice on Richardson as long as the price is reasonable. For instance, I might prefer Richardson's upside over the relative safety of Dak Prescott. Richardson is a player I would have a really hard time trading away right now for his current market value in Superflex leagues.

Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy
It will be interesting to see how these two, who essentially redshirted as rookies, are valued this offseason compared to the top incoming rookies from the 2025 class. We may be able to acquire them for the equivalent of a late first- or even second-round rookie pick. If that becomes the going rate, I will likely be a buyer.

Kirk Cousins
Is it almost time to start panicking about Cousins? Through the first nine weeks, Cousins and the Falcons were cruising, with him posting a 17-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Since then, the Atlanta passing offense has struggled, and Cousins has a 0-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the current three-game skid.