Dynasty Running Back Rankings And Tiers

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In the dynasty markets, no assets are more volatile than running backs. We regularly see guys skyrocket and plummet in dynasty running back rankings. Kyren Williams, for instance, jumped from RB77 to RB6 in just a few months. Javonte Williams peaked as the dynasty RB2 after his rookie season before falling to RB22 less than a year later. Austin Ekeler, a long-time RB1 producer, has become nearly worthless over the course of one bad season. It feels secure to have a running back room of elite blue-chip prospects. But many dynasty players won championships last year on the backs of guys like Zamir White and Ty Chandler.

Wide receivers and quarterbacks maintain insulated value over multiple seasons. Running back rankings change near-weekly.

This article will examine dynasty running back rankings and the overall landscape. As with other articles in this series, this is not to serve as a flat list of dynasty running back rankings. Instead, each fantasy-relevant player will be placed into a bucket with other running backs who profile similarly.

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My theory regarding dynasty running back rankings can be summed up succinctly: They don't matter. Rather than trading premium assets for running backs, I advise implementing a quantity-over-quality approach. The nature of the position leads to injury, and weighted opportunities are the statistic correlated strongest to fantasy production. Stockpiling “injury-away” running backs and investing in safer assets is often a recipe for success. However, some factors indicate a higher ceiling than simply looking at the RB2 on a team's listed depth chart. Youth, athleticism, and pass-catching abilities are all desirable traits in the backs you roster.

Selling high isn't always necessary when you strike gold with a running back. These players sometimes maintain value in dynasty running back rankings. But more often than not, it makes sense to flip your running backs for less volatile assets and piece together week-to-week production at your running back slot.

While I'd recommend trading away the most valuable guys in dynasty running back rankings, you can win with any team construction. And this first tier of guys, when healthy, will likely give you unmatched potential.

Dynasty Running Back Rankings

The Blue Chips

• Breece Hall
• Bijan Robinson
• Jahmyr Gibbs

Should you buy or sell these players atop dynasty running back rankings? That's a tricky question. All of these running backs are entering their age-23 season or younger. All have displayed the ability to accumulate fantasy points at an elite level. But as discussed in the intro, running backs are volatile. An injury could quickly cause these players to plummet in dynasty running back rankings. Like most “yes or no” questions, this requires a nuanced answer. Don’t sell for the point of selling. But if you can flip one of these running backs into a safer asset, it’s recommended. Consensus rankings currently have these backs in the same range as Anthony Richardson, Justin Herbert, Garrett Wilson, and Malik Nabers. You may even be able to trade down, acquiring Kyler Murray, Jayden Daniels, A.J. Brown, or Chris Olave with extra assets on top. In those scenarios, it's hard to justify keeping the running backs.

However, these are the safest running backs you can hold if you choose to do so. They are all young and athletic, with premium draft capital and a history of success in the NFL. They check all the boxes. But as we've seen with Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, and J.K. Dobbins, dynasty managers are impatient regarding injuries and lack of production. Even Breece Hall, who immediately displayed elite fantasy production, dipped to RB5 after his rookie-season injury. While the time to buy was then, that window has since shut.

These are the only guys you should feel comfortable paying up for in dynasty running back rankings. When healthy, they will give you unmatchable production and longevity at the running back position. However, as we'll get into later, you could likely find replacement weekly production for cheaper.

The RB1… For Now

• Christian McCaffrey

There isn't much to say about Christian McCaffrey that hasn't been said. He's had unmatched production since joining the San Francisco 49ers midway through 2022. You can seemingly pencil him in for 20 points and a weekly touchdown. Outside of a Week 17 game he left with an injury last season, he's scored double-digit fantasy points in every game since the trade. But he's about to enter his age-28 season. When running backs fall off the age cliff, they fall hard. McCaffrey is renowned for his conditioning since injuries plagued his early career. He also accrues much of his value in the passing game. That should extend his shelf life.

But most dynasty running back rankings have him in the top four, along with “The Blue Chips." That value is extremely tough to project going forward. Maybe he will finish as the RB1 again this year. But what if he doesn't? In a doomsday hypothetical, what happens if he gets injured and misses this season? Then the 49ers can save $8M by cutting him. He'd enter free agency as a 29-year-old coming off an injury. We just saw Austin Ekeler follow a similar trajectory and tumble from RB9 to RB45 in consensus dynasty running back rankings.

Of course, that's the worst-case scenario. But given that he is ranked in a similar tier to the young running backs above, McCaffrey is reaching must-sell territory. I could end up with egg all over my face if he finishes the season as the RB1 again. But I would much prefer the safer quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end assets near McCaffrey. They hold similar value and have the benefit of long-term insulation.

Young Workhorses

• Jonathan Taylor
• Travis Etienne Jr.
• Ken Walker III

The four players atop dynasty running back rankings are expensive. Here, we start looking at running backs who are more affordable, making the position's natural volatility more palatable. The further down this tier we go, the cheaper they get.

We could split hairs and put Jonathan Taylor in a tier by himself. He checks almost every box you want to see from an elite dynasty running back, but being 25 years old puts him below “The Blue Chips.” Injuries last season and the looming presence of Anthony Richardson are also notable. Travis Etienne has first-round draft capital, is tied to his college quarterback, and is on a good offense. But his efficiency has left a bit to be desired. Much of his production last year came from volume; he was third in the league in weighted opportunities. His situation is vaguely reminiscent of Joe Mixon's early career. He is inefficient but being fed volume on an above-average offense. Etienne isn't an aggressive target of mine, but I’d be willing to buy for the right price. Ken Walker III is essentially the anti-Etienne. He was 24th in weighted opportunities but top-10 in a slew of efficiency metrics. There is some concern about Zach Charbonnet squeezing touches here, but Walker's big-play upside and youth make him a desirable target.

These running backs will all be ranked high in dynasty running back rankings. And for good reason.