Dynasty News: Week 18

Dynasty News has been a part of Footballguys for well over a decade. Our Jeff Tefertiller combines strategy with relevant NFL news to help dynasty managers excel with their teams. It examines some of the larger happenings of the week from a dynasty perspective. The news may be injury- or performance-related.

Dynasty News: Sam Darnold, Minnesota

Yes, Sam Darnold has played at a higher level than ever before in his career. This is unmistakable. The Purple Persuasion ran an article quoting veteran NFL writer Mike Sando. In that article, Sando quotes an NFL executive on whether Minnesota should sign Sam Darnold to a hefty contract or go with J.J. McCarthy. The executive said, "This season has proved Sam needs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, (T.J.) Hockenson, one of the grittiest offensive lines and a top back in Aaron Jones. If you are Minnesota, you wave goodbye to Sam, wish him luck, and hope he signs for $50 million with some team that thinks they are a quarterback away but doesn't have all those things Minnesota has. You get the premium comp pick, you found your next Sam Darnold in Daniel Jones and you already have your draft pick (McCarthy) ready to go. That is what a smart organization does."

This has been our opinion all along. Darnold is a mid-level fantasy starter – at best – on any other team, and his dynasty managers should not expect this level of production in the future. Kevin O'Connell made Joshua Dobbs a solid fantasy option (in SuperFlex leagues), and Dobbs is now behind Brandon Allen on the 49ers depth chart. Darnold is definitely better than Dobbs, but dynasty managers are encouraged not to fall into the trap of thinking he will play at this level in Cleveland, Tennessee, New York (either team), or anywhere else.

Dynasty News: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland

Ian Rapoport broke the news late last week that the Cleveland Browns were re-doing Deshaun Watson's contract. Contrary to most expectations, he did not alter the money he will receive. The move was to help the Browns' cap situation. Here is Rapoport's article on the topic, "The Browns have agreed to terms on a restructured contract for quarterback Deshaun Watson with an adjustment aimed at easing future salary cap burden and signaling Watson is expected to be on Cleveland's roster next season, sources say. The new deal doesn't affect Watson's 2025 contract, but it does solidify Cleveland's plans for the QB. Watson, who is recovering from a torn Achilles and will have missed 21 games due to injury over the last two seasons, is still due $92 million fully guaranteed over the next two seasons, and that has not changed. The new parameters of the deal would make his contract easier to manage following the 2026 season when his deal expires. The Browns have not publicly stated their plans for Watson, and sources also say it would make sense to bring in another QB -- whether that's a younger player, current backup Jameis Winston, or another veteran to add competition to the position."

Watson was threatened by the strong play of Joe Flacco last year, but he was okay with Winston backing him up. We expect Cleveland to upgrade the position this offseason, and Watson will become the highest-paid backup in NFL history after the Browns select a passer with their high pick in the first round. Jeremy Fowler offered this context to the contract gymnastics, "Deshaun Watson's reworked contract adds two void years, allowing #Browns to push dead salary cap into 2030, per sources. Watson's contract contained two void years (2027-28) before restructure. Now, it has four."

The Browns are trying to stay competitive in the short term, knowing they have dug a large hole in their future ability to compete.  This team is void of young talent because they have given three first-round picks, a third-rounder, and two fourth-rounders in the past three drafts just to acquire Watson and give him a monster contract that the team cannot get out of. Since landing in Cleveland three years ago, the 29-year-old has thrown for just 3,365 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. 

Dynasty News: J.K. Dobbins, LA Chargers

Last week, the Chargers designated starting tailback J.K. Dobbins to return from injured reserve. His return is well-timed, as Los Angeles is in the playoffs and will need a strong running game to anchor the offense while playing on the road in cold environments. Gus Edwards missed Saturday's game in New England, so Dobbins led the backfield in carries. Coach Harbaugh does not seem to trust running backs who are not named Edwards or Dobbins. As expected, Dobbins led the backfield in carries against the Patriots and even scored a touchdown in his first game back.

Dynasty News: Tank Dell, Houston

Last Tuesday, ace beat reporter Aaron Wilson tweeted, "Sources: #Texans' Tank Dell tore medial collateral, lateral collateral, as well as ACL, dislocated knee, meniscus damage, long road back with multiple surgeries to follow: @KPRC2" Dr. Deepak Chona responded to Wilson's tweet with, "Tank Dell - ACL, MCL, LCL, meniscus, dislocated kneecap. Often treated in 2 surgeries, usually 6-12 wks apart. Avg return = 15 months. Possible, but unlikely to play in '25. Year 1 typically associated w/major performance hit. Young highly athletic players tend to bounce back Year 2 Longevity, durability typically take major hits."

Dynasty managers should not expect Dell to contribute in 2025. Given Dr. Chona's comments, we advise selling Dell low because the odds are not strong for a full recovery back to his 2023 pre-injury production level. Dell has been through a lot in his short career, and this will test his mettle. The Texans have Stefon Diggs and Diontae Johnson able to depart in free agency. Each is a solid buy as they are talented but seen as a distraction by their former teams.

Buying and Selling While Avoiding Groupthink

As we enter the offseason for dynasty managers, we are reminded that groupthink abounds in the offseason. Here are players on whom we will disagree with the consensus.