Dynasty News, July 10, 2024

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This summer, we will examine the dynasty news through the lens of the three key aspects for dynasty managers: talent, value, and opportunity.

Identifying the correct talent level is the first order of business for dynasty managers. Understanding the appropriate level of talent determines whether it is pursuing a correct valuation and comprehending of the opportunity.

Success in all three areas is necessary for a successful dynasty manager. In today’s  Dynasty News, we will examine a few quarterback situations that dynasty managers need to understand because they will have a trickle-down effect on the other skill-position players.

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft will have a lasting impact on dynasty leagues. The following were the quarterbacks drafted in round one:

• Pick 1.01 Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
• Pick 1.02 Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
• Pick 1.03 Drake Maye, New England Patriots
• Pick 1.08 Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
• Pick 1.10 J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
• Pick 1.12 Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Each of these teams has a veteran passer as competition, with some of these veterans serving as nothing more than token competition.

QB Situations From a Dynasty Perspective

Caleb Williams, Chicago

Williams has as much potential as any incoming rookie in the past decade. He is assured the opening-game starting job. With Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien behind him on the depth chart, Williams’ only competition will come from within. The Bears did an outstanding job adding talent around their rookie, with D'Andre Swift added to the tailback room to complement Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, veteran receiver Keenan Allen signing in free agency, and the drafting of Rome Odunze a few picks after Williams was selected. The Bears also added veteran tight ends Gerald Everett and Marcedes Lewis to offer flexibility in specific situations. In dynasty, Williams’ presence is a boost for the rest of the backs and receivers. Swift, Allen, DJ Moore, and Odunze are all worth dynasty investment to different degrees. Allen may be a free agent next offseason, so that and his age are reasons to invest only if needing a solid starter for 2024. While coming off a decent season, tight end Cole Kmet may see his opportunity take a hit with the additions of Swift, Allen, and Odunze. Sure, he was a redzone target hog the past two seasons, but that was in a lineup chock full of limited weapons.

Jayden Daniels, Washington

Daniels is also very likely to start. Even though coach Dan Quinn has historically leaned on veterans, the lowly Commanders will want the energy of the rookie over the veteran Marcus Mariota. Washington also added a trio of weapons to help the rookie. They signed running back Austin Ekeler, who will compete with Brian Robinson for backfield touches. The Commanders also drafted wide receiver Luke McCaffrey and tight end Ben Stinnott. This pair of rookies will be brought along slowly but are good bets to start by late in the season. McCaffrey is a sure-handed possession receiver, and Stinnott is a versatile tight end who will be groomed by starter Zach Ertz, who signed in the offseason. Ertz is reunited with his Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels has immense fantasy upside due to his rushing ability. The only viable receiver is Terry McLaurin. This lack of weapons is another reason to lean upon the rookie to make plays. Quinn always has his teams playing at a competitive level. If McCaffrey and Stinnott start the season slowly, they make great dynasty buy targets as each will get ample opportunity to shine in 2024.

Drake Maye, New England

Maye will battle veteran Jacoby Brissett for the starting job, and new head coach Jerod Mayo may choose to bring the rookie along slowly. Maye was not the “gimme” of a prospect as Williams and Daniels so taking time to groom him is a good move. The Patriots were not active in free agency, only bringing in receiving back Antonio Gibson to complement Rhamondre Stevenson and Kevin Harris. New England did draft two promising receivers, Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, to add to Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne. Douglas is the best bet for 2024 fantasy relevance, but Baker is a playmaker and could be the top pass catcher in the offense for many years. The tight ends are borderline fantasy-worthy in deep leagues. Hunter Henry remains and Austin Hooper signed to be a role player. This team will struggle to move the ball in a conservative offense while playing in a difficult division.

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta

The Falcons’ selection of Penix was a head-scratcher for many, not because of his talent, but because Atlanta signed veteran Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180-million contract and $100 million guaranteed less than a month before. The team cannot get out of Cousins’ contract for at least two years, and Penix will be 26 years of age by then (2026). Penix has talent and should be a good professional. He makes for a great dynasty buy target for rebuilding dynasty teams. Atlanta did not invest much in the skill-position players as they spent so much capital on the quarterback position (Cousins and Penix). Only Darnell Mooney was signed in free agency. The team boasts a promising group of fantasy players in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Mooney, and Kyle Pitts. Cousins will be a huge boost to the dynasty outlooks for each of the four. Sadly, Robinson, London, and Pitts are valued near their highest potential and not easy to acquire via trade. However, the quarterback upgrade from Desmond Ridder to Cousins is substantial and could enable one of the trio to ascend higher than expected.

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota

Minnesota was rumored to be trading up for McCarthy but the team held firm and let the ex-Michigan quarterback continue to fall. He will duel veteran Sam Darnold for the starting nod. Darnold is talented and has shown glimpses of quality in the past. His presence will be good for McCarthy and dynasty managers. The rookie can sit until he is prepared for the role. The NFC North will be a tough battleground and the Vikings will want to ensure he is ready before inserting McCarthy under center. The team added Aaron Jones to the backfield, And Ty Chandler will play a complementary role. Superstar Justin Jefferson returns to anchor the receiving corps, while second-year Jordan Addison will play a prominent role. Gone is WR3 K.J. Osborn, who will be replaced by Brandon Powell. Tight end T.J. Hockenson will need much of the season to fully recover from last year’s knee injury.  With the uncertainty at quarterback and Hockenson’s injury, expect Jones and Chandler to play prominent roles as Minnesota tries to add balance to the Jefferson-led offense. Hockenson is a great buy target. Chandler is a player to consider adding off the waiver wire – if available – as Jones did not look like his old self in 2023. In a division with Detroit, Green Bay, and Chicago, Minnesota may need a year to get McCarthy up to speed and Hockenson healthy. Savvy dynasty managers will use the slow starts by these fantasy stars as an opportunity to acquire at a reasonable price.

Bo Nix, Denver

The selection of Nix surprised some, as Denver was not publicly eyeing him. Coach Sean Payton tabbed Nix as “his guy” after the draft, and the rookie only has to beat out Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham by Week 1. Neither should be seen as a threat to Nix. The Broncos also added running back Audric Estimé and receiver Troy Frankin through the draft. The team also signed veteran Josh Reynolds in free agency after trading Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns. Payton is reshaping this team to reflect his philosophy. The Jeudy trade was rumored for many months. He and his coach were not on the same page. Denver has an eclectic group of running backs, with Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin competing with Estime for playing time. This feels like a situation that will frustrate dynasty managers, as it will take at least half of the season to sort out a pecking order. McLaughlin played great in a limited role as a rookie last season. He is undersized but adds a speed element to this offense. After the Jeudy trade, Courtland Sutton is the unquestioned top receiver, with second-year pro Marvin Mims Jr. primed for a breakout. Reynolds will be the third receiver, and Franklin will vie for playing time. Franklin is a speedster who could unseat either Mims or Reynolds. At tight end, Greg Dulcich should start when healthy, but that has been his bugaboo throughout his career. Lucas Krull is a player to watch in case Dulcich misses time. Payton is building a young nucleus for the future.

These six quarterbacks will make large impacts on their NFL teams – and those of dynasty managers – throughout the next two years. As we venture deeper into the offseason, progressing toward Week 1, we will gain more contextual dynasty clues.

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