Dynasty Movement: Week 16

The semifinals of most fantasy leagues sit in Week 16, and we have few windows left before Dynasty shifts to an offseason of speculation. Dynasty staffers Corey Spala, Andy Hicks, Jason Wood, and Matt Montgomery hit their movers coming out of Week 15.

The Dynasty staff gathered to work through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are the biggest risers or fallers in rankings. Check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself for more Dynasty content. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends.

Dynasty Movement at Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta

Matthew Montgomery: It is now or never, folks. Penix will get his first serious NFL opportunity, so we are at a tipping point for his value. We will learn a lot over the next three weeks, but we should approach this positively, especially considering the runway Kirk Cousins gave him. The Falcons can't get worse at quarterback, so as long as Penix is somewhat viable, we should see his value increase going into next season. 

Corey Spala: Cousins and Penix should be moving in rankings; Cousins should be moving down, and Penix should be moving up, or at least in consideration. Cousins has been horrendous in the last four games, and Atlanta benched him for Penix. Cousins set a career-high with 16 interceptions in 14 games played. Penix has the arm talent to succeed and make passes at all levels. Cousins is currently ranked QB25 and should move below Matthew Stafford (QB30). Penix is currently ranked QB24 and could move ahead of J.J. McCarthy (QB22).

Jason Wood: Fortunately, I already had Penix ranked relatively high, though I admittedly thought the window to acquire him would last a bit longer. Unfortunately, that window may close quickly for those who don't already have him rostered. Now that he's been named the Falcons' starter in place of the struggling Cousins, Penix could soon vault up the consensus ranks. If he performs well over the next few weeks, he has a strong chance to enter 2025 as the clear starter, surrounded by a talented group of skilled players at his disposal.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta

Jason Wood: The Falcons are on the hook for a $40 million cap hit for Cousins in 2025, regardless of whether he's the starter. Kudos to the organization for giving Penix a shot despite the significant financial commitment to Cousins last offseason. The veteran's struggles could be partially attributed to his Achilles tendon tear, but that's little consolation given how his performance has declined as the season progresses rather than improving. While it's not out of the question that a desperate team might trade for Cousins, it's equally plausible that his days as an impactful fantasy starter are over.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay

Jason Wood: When you look at the absolute disaster in Cleveland, it's hard to believe that just a few seasons ago, they had Mayfield on a team-friendly contract and decided he wasn't the answer. Fast forward to today, and Mayfield has 32 touchdowns through Week 15, keeping the surging Buccaneers in playoff contention. He's a top-8 fantasy quarterback in every format, and given his age and confidence, there's no reason to think he can't maintain his value for another five-plus seasons.

Sam Howell, Seattle

Andy Hicks: Given his solid performance as a starter for Washington last year, I was excited at the prospect of Howell being a contender for the starting job in Seattle. Geno Smith held him out and played well, but not spectacularly. Howell got his first opportunity late against the Packers. Woof. I had Howell very high amongst the backups in my ratings. Not anymore. 

Dynasty Movement at Tight Ends

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay

Matthew Montgomery: I now have serious doubts about Otton, who I was very high on in these articles early in the season. Still, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers continue to get McMillan more and more involved in the passing game, we are seeing Otton's numbers fall at an alarming rate. He still has value and viability in fantasy, especially considering the wasteland, which is the tight end position. Still, we should pump the brakes on some of the elite expectations likely thrust upon him in the midseason. 

Brenton Strange, Jacksonville

Corey Spala: Strange has had an intriguing second season. He has averaged six targets per game when Evan Engram did not play. In week 15, he ran a route on 82% of Jacksonville's dropbacks. Looking to the future, Engram has zero guaranteed salary in 2025; Jacksonville can save $11.75M by cutting Engram post-June 1st. Strange is our current TE34, and I see him moving ahead of Luke Schoonmaker (TE32) and Tyler Conklin (TE29).

Andy Hicks: Strange was drafted in the second round by Jacksonville last year with high Dynasty expectations. Like the traditional rookie tight end, though, he recorded only five receptions as the veteran Engram thrived. This year, Strange has been contributing regularly while Engram has battled a few injuries and is finally being placed on IR this week. Strange responded by recording an 11-reception game. Engram is contracted for next year but will be 31. He needs another year to be the starter fully, but he moves into the top 25 tight ends for now, and a few more good performances will vault him higher and make Engram expendable.

Jason Wood: Strange's Dynasty value is rising, partly thanks to Engram's declining stock. Strange has stepped into a high-target role for a struggling Jaguars team and has performed admirably. While it's too early to say whether he'll be a key part of the offense in 2025, that will depend on factors like how the roster is restructured, Trevor Lawrence's health, and the system implemented by the new coaching staff. Still, Strange has shown enough in recent weeks to earn a spot in the tier of speculative assets worth rostering.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville

Jason Wood: It's becoming clear that we've likely seen the peak years for Engram, and that warrants a downgrade. His latest season-ending injury casts even more doubt on his ability to return to the 100-reception form that once vaulted him into the top tier of Dynasty assets. With uncertainty surrounding Jacksonville's offense, it's far more likely that Engram produces a handful of league-average seasons moving forward rather than becoming a difference-maker who helps you win championships.