Welcome to the best week of football of the year! Dynasty staffers Corey Spala, Andy Hicks, Ryan Weisse, and Matt Montgomery hit their movers coming out of Week 12.
The Dynasty staff gathered to work through multiple quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who are the biggest risers or fallers in rankings. Check out the Footballguys Dynasty Football show with Jagger May and myself for more Dynasty content. We do three episodes weekly, discussing a variety of relevant Dynasty trends.
Dynasty Movement at Quarterback
C.J. Stroud, Houston
Corey Spala: I am not saying it is time to have a conversation, but it is time to consider moving Stroud down the rankings. He currently ranks 24th in expected points added per dropback and is 27th in quarterback rating. There has been a noticeable decline, possibly due to variables outside Stroud's control. It could be due to an amplified ranking due to Stroud's age and immediate production from his rookie season. He has regressed. I would move down Stroud from our current QB4 ranking.
Andy Hicks: It is time to start ringing the alarm bells regarding the performances of Stroud. Oddly, at the same time, Bryce Young starts looking good. Stroud has four touchdowns over the last six games. He doesn't look as crisp, and opposing defenses seem to be able to rattle him. Stroud has shown enough in his career to remain confident he can be an elite quarterback. He is not currently, and his ranking must reflect that.
Kyler Murray, Arizona
Matthew Montgomery: I love Murray just as much as the next manager, but we should have a higher standard for quarterback in fantasy. Murray has all the skills necessary to be the #1 overall pick and was potentially a two-sport athlete in the NFL. Still, I don't ever feel like he strings that talent together long enough to be a true game-breaking player in the NFL. The stats are okay; he is electric to watch, but if I told you that Patrick Mahomes II is one spot higher in points scored this season, how would that make you feel? Mahomes has been droppable in redraft, and I understand we don't do that type of thing in Dynasty, but Murray, who is a good player, is a little overhyped compared to what we are seeing him put together on the field.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
Ryan Weisse: Looking over my rankings, I didn't have any movement at quarterback, so instead, I'll defend having Burrow rated 4th while his consensus is 7th right now. While it's easy to see Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson as their tier, Burrow should be at the top of Tier 2. He's only 27, tied to one of the best wide receivers and offensive schemes in the league, and is playing fantastic this year. He's the QB3 in fantasy this season and is on pace for 4679 yards and 41 touchdowns, both career highs. I can't look at Patrick Mahomes II or CJ Stroud this season and fathom wanting either one over Burrow in fantasy football.
Dynasty Movement at Tight End
Theo Johnson, NY Giants
Corey Spala: Johnson has three straight games with six targets. It is eye-opening to see immediate playing time and opportunity for a rookie tight end; he is averaging 84% snaps per game. The Giants should see a superior team and quarterback situation in the future. I am not worried about the Greg Dulcich waiver claim; it is more of an indication for Daniel Bellinger. Johnson is our TE30, and I would be comfortable moving him up to the early to mid-twenties.
Noah Gray, Kansas City
Corey Spala: I wrote about him previously, and Gray continues strengthening his outlook on Dynasty. He plays alongside Travis Kelce, D'Andre Hopkins, and Xavier Worthy, yet he finds meaningful opportunities. Gray has had four touchdowns over the last two games, and though this will not be sustainable, it is essential to note that he is seeing the opportunities to produce. He has three red zone targets over the last two weeks. He is our current TE42 and should move up the rankings.
Andy Hicks: Gray is having the best year of his career to date, and there are still six weeks left in the season. As Travis Kelce ages, the Chiefs did a masterstroke of roster management by signing Gray to a contract extension before he broke out. He lacks the upside of Kelce, but he can be a bottom-end starting option or streaming consideration for the Chiefs in future years.
Sam LaPorta, Detroit
Matthew Montgomery: What happened to the player we saw last season emerge as a genuine threat in the passing game? I was expecting Laporta to take another step forward, but what we got last season may be an outlier of a year for the young tight end. The craziest part about this whole thing is that he is catching his targets at a higher rate than last season, but he is 80 targets off his total from last season with just six total games to go. Something happened with the offensive philosophy this season versus last season, and unfortunately for Laporta managers, it appears he got the short end of the stick.
Jonnu Smith, Miami
Andy Hicks: Coming out of nowhere since the Dolphins bye week, Smith is on track for the best fantasy ranking of his career to date. He has been the number-one fantasy tight end since week seven. He has had good stretches in his career before, only for them to even out stats-wise. Ride him while he is hot, but caution still prevails while he has to be given some ranking reevaluation.
Jake Ferguson, Dallas
Ryan Weisse: Tight ends in Dallas are just copied and pasted. They've been chasing something since they lost Jason Witten, but no one is coming close to Witten's success. They went from Blake Jarwin to Dalton Schultz to Ferguson, and they've all been okay but not great for fantasy and buoyed by volume. It looked like Ferguson would turn that page after 2023, but he started poorly this year, and Luke Schoonmaker looks better when he misses time. I had Ferguson as a top-10 Dynasty tight end based on 2023 and his age, but it seems plausible that he could lose his job to Schoonmaker next season. He is too risky for too little reward.
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