Dynasty Movement: Week 3

Week 2 showed everything we learned in Week 1 could be wrong. That is what we love about this league. Each week a group of Footballguys staffers will discuss a pressing issue while identifying key movers at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. 

Dynasty Movement at Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami

Andy Hicks - Last year, Tagovailoa was someone I was very concerned about due to his concussion risks. He managed to get through the entire season without incident. To suffer a concussion on such an innocuous hit against the Bills confirms all the fears I had last season. If, and it is a big if, he comes back, can he avoid a hit to his head on every single play? He moves right down the rankings.

Jason Wood - The reality is that regardless of how you valued Tagovailoa before this week's game, you now have to discount him substantially. As most know, the Dolphins quarterback suffered another concussion, raising concerns about his long-term health and the merits of continuing his NFL career. Tagovailoa has publicly stated his intention to keep playing, and if he can stay healthy, he has an enviable supporting cast and an offensive structure that will allow for plenty of big weeks. However, given his age and recently signed contract, you might have viewed Tagovailoa as a long-term, low-risk asset. Now, he's one big hit away from potentially ending his career.

Geno Smith, Seattle

Andy Hicks - With a new coaching staff in place and Sam Howell coming off a good fantasy year in Washington, I expected Smith to cede way to Howell. The performance against the Patriots cemented Smith as the starter moving forward. At age 33, Smith has many good years left in the NFL. Given the impatience shown and the high bust rate of rookie quarterbacks, it is time to give Smith a boost in fantasy rankings.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Andy Hicks - Lawrence has started 52 games for the Jaguars. He received a healthy new contract. But apart from a handful of games has been the poster child for average quarterback play. At what stage do we not consider him a future great? Some of us are already there. Excuses ran out some time ago.

Bryce Young, Carolina

Jason Wood - Fortunately, I was already among the lowest in the industry on Bryce Young's dynasty prospects. However, despite already being near the bottom, I'm lowering him further following the news that he's been benched in favor of Andy Dalton. There's no way to interpret this other than the organization throwing in the towel on the Young experiment in hopes of keeping the locker room together; the Panthers' 2025 starter isn't currently on the roster. Young's best path forward is landing on another team as a No. 2 quarterback and then, in a few seasons, getting an opportunity as a stop-gap or transitional starter. That's not worthy of his consensus dynasty ranking.

Corey Spala—The benching is an obvious drop in dynasty rankings. Young did not appear confident in his play, and the coaching staff agreed. It may benefit his future outlook to find a new environment, develop, and learn behind a veteran quarterback. Young should have never been thrust into a starting role and should have been allowed to develop. I hope he can get the chance. 

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay

Corey Spala - According to his box score, Baker Mayfield struggled against Detroit in Week 2. He was running for his life in the game as the offensive line struggled against Detroit's pass rush (five sacks). Mayfield salvaged the game and brought the win home for Tampa Bay. Mayfield has an obvious chip on his shoulder and the confidence to win games and lead his team. He is our current QB19, and I have no problem moving him ahead of Jared Goff (QB17) and Tua Tagovailoa (QB16). 

Dan Hindery - As Dave Kluge noted in his article Three Up, Three Down, Baker Mayfield is averaging 24.7 fantasy PPG and is fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback. Again, he looks like the player drafted first overall and had a solid start to his career in Cleveland. At 29 years old, Mayfield is a good bet to remain an NFL starter for the foreseeable future. With weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan, he has a strong chance to continue producing starter-caliber fantasy numbers, placing him solidly within the Top 20 dynasty quarterbacks.

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh

Dan Hindery - Fields caught a break when Russell Wilson re-aggravated his calf injury, leaving him unavailable to start the season. Fields has capitalized on the opportunity, playing mistake-free football and leading the Steelers to a 2-0 record. With Fields starting again in Week 3 and Pittsburgh opening as slight home favorites, he has a good shot at leading the team to a third consecutive win. As long as the Steelers keep winning, it's hard to see Mike Tomlin benching Fields in favor of Wilson. While the public narrative has pointed to Wilson as the likely starter for 2024, insider rumors suggest that the team is intrigued by Fields' rushing ability and youth. Even if Wilson had been healthy, his leash would have been short. All signs point to Fields having a real chance to hold onto the starting job for the remainder of the season and potentially earning a long-term deal as Pittsburgh's franchise quarterback. Given his rushing upside (22 carries through two games) and youth, Fields moves into my Top 20 position.

Aaron Rodgers, NY Jets

Dan Hindery - Rodgers needs more value for non-contending dynasty rosters. At almost 41 years old, he is nearing retirement. The bigger question is whether he has any value for contenders. Even early in the season, it's challenging to see Rodgers as a meaningful contributor, aside from maybe being a bye-week fill-in. Rodgers is averaging fewer than 12 fantasy PPG. At his age, coming off a torn Achilles, he isn't adding anything with his legs (zero rushing yards), and the Jets aren't running an explosive, pass-heavy offense. With no rushing production and modest passing numbers, there's little reason to believe Rodgers will have significant fantasy value moving forward. 

Andy Dalton, Carolina

Matt Montgomery-  It's no secret that the Panthers offense has been anemic under the leadership of Bryce Young, but the team has made a quick decision to move forward, and I think this signifies they feel they can compete with a different man under center. Andy Dalton was an effective fantasy quarterback for many seasons in Cincinnati, and while the playoff success wasn't there, he still led a high-powered offense to the playoffs. He gives an immediate boost to the players around him and even will have the ability to provide starter-worthy weeks for your teams, at least in the short term.

Derek Carr, New Orleans

Matt Montgomery- I know it has only been two weeks, but is it crazy to say that these two games may be a point of reference for us beginning to believe in the Saints' offense? Klint Kubiak knows how to run an offense effectively, and we are seeing Carr put the ball in the hands of his playmakers. They're converting big plays and first downs to extended drives and his time on the field. Not every week will be as sexy as the win against the Cowboys was, but Derek Carr may make owners uncomfortable by keeping him on the bench, and that is movement if I've ever seen it!