Dynasty, in Theory: Many Leagues, One Team

There's a lot of strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

A New Perspective

One thing I like to do with this column is to offer a new way of looking at things. Instead of treating wins as a goal, consider treating roster value as a goal and wins as a byproduct. Consider valuing future production based on the chances you'll be around to benefit. Consider whether it's better to be a specialist or a generalist. Consider the ways that optimism is baked into the fabric of dynasty. Consider treating "prospect" as its own position, distinct from QB, RB, WR, or TE.

Or don't consider these things. They're ways of looking at your team and your process that can give you a new perspective and suggest new approaches, but none of them change the underlying reality. These are all frames that I sometimes adopt and sometimes cast aside.

Today I want to pass on a framework that a friend gave to me nearly a decade ago. It has probably changed the way I play dynasty more than any other idea.

You Have Many Leagues, But Only One Team

Let's say you have Lamar Jackson, but you're a huge fan of Jayden Daniels and you're bummed that you missed out on him in the rookie draft. You know from FantasyCalc-- which calculates player values based on actual trades from actual leagues-- that Jackson and Daniels are essentially considered a tossup-- Jackson is rated at 6030 points, Daniels at 5999.

You offer Jackson for Daniels, but it turns out that the manager with Daniels in that league is also a True Believer and won't let him go for anywhere close to market value. This is the problem with the entire concept of "market value" here-- if a dynasty league is a market, it is a thin one with only one potential seller for each player. As a result, we'll see wild swings in asking price from league to league. 

Because of how it's calculated, the value on FantasyCalc will always be an accurate representation of a player's price in aggregate; if he costs more than that in some leagues, that only means he must cost less than that in others. If you could just trade players in leagues where your target was overvalued to acquire him in leagues where he was undervalued, this wouldn't be an issue. But you can't. 

Well, you MOSTLY can't.