Photo: USA Today Sports

We’ve finally reached the point of the season where many of the CFB stars posting gaudy stats eventually play stiffer competition as we get into conference and ranked games. This makes it much easier to evaluate because we get the best against the best and see who they really are as prospects under pressure. Furthermore, the prospects begin to separate within their position and there are fewer full tiers of TEs and QBs.

Standout Performances

QB Garrett Nussmeier (JR - LSU) 6’2, 201 lbs

I’ve been reluctant to rank Garrett Nussmeier because I’m a stickler for process and won’t judge a prospect without at least a three-game sample size. Hate me all you want, I do this to provide you with consistent analysis that is as objective as possible despite the film being partially subjective. Now that we’ve gotten that caveat out of the way, Nussmeier has some elite ball placement and I’ve been dying to talk about it.

This throw and catch from Garrett Nussmeier to Aaron Anderson was pretty incredible. Wow. pic.twitter.com/86wolWxXtI

— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) September 14, 2024

The only reason this offense hasn’t picked off from last season is that they lost two dynamic 1st round athletes at WR. Daniels was a talent in his own right, but Nussmeier's consistent on-time accuracy makes up for what he lacks in explosive athleticism. We love a good highlight or explosive play, but scouts love a QB who can layer a throw over linebackers with veteran anticipation. It’s especially impressive to see efficiency despite LSU’s struggles, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him climb draft boards regardless of their season.

WR Luther Burden III (JR - Missouri) 5’11, 205 lbs

Tetairoa McMillan’s freakish mobility at his size, Luther Burden would be the unquestionable WR1 in this class and is reminiscent of Percy Harvin or an uber-athletic Randall Cobb.

Luther Burden is such a weapon after the catch. pic.twitter.com/JtQ5H5cest

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 14, 2024

This doesn’t make him a strict gadget player either, but fits more of the mold of the modern “all-around weapon” that the NFL deploys and is a sufficient route runner at all three levels of the field. Burden’s skillset is somewhere between Malik Nabers and Jayden Reed and can be a QB and OC’s favorite weapon because he’s capable of a big play with every touch.

RB Devin Neal (SR - Kansas) 5’11, 215 lbs

Devin Neal could’ve been the RB2 or 3 in 2024’s class had he not returned to Kansas, and this means he’ll be an absolute value in 2025 in the right situation. Neal has the size, burst, vision, and contact balance to be complete back in the NFL.

Devin Neal is a DAWG

pic.twitter.com/J0dEeRh8zp

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 14, 2024

Neal profiles best into an outside zone scheme, not unlike the Dolphins or the Texans. In fact, my dream pairing would be Devin Neal and whatever team Bobby Slowik is coaching for in 2025. The most productive NFL running backs have elite burst in outside zone schemes so I grade them accordingly, and it’s increasingly more difficult to keep a player as consistent as Neal below players like Ollie Gordon.

Fallers

WR Emeka Egbuka (SR - Ohio State) 6’1, 205 lbs

Emeka Egbuka is everyone’s favorite devy darling and sophomore breakout.

Ohio State WR #2 Emeka Egbuka finding a way to get open vs. Missouri (2023) pic.twitter.com/6pookYx8Kb

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) September 13, 2024

But I have a hard time visualizing him being drafted to be a team’s WR1 like so many believe him to be, particularly the analytical-driven scouts. Both Egbuka’s usage and play strength make him a mid-level master of none who is best used off the ball, in the slot, and near the line of scrimmage. He’s demonstrated downfield ability in college, but the tape leaves a lot to be desired to consistently separate downfield in the NFL. Right now, is range of outcomes is somewhere in between, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kayshon Boutte, and Temu Deebo Samuel Sr.. He could be productive in the right situation or could be a better “football player” than he is a productive wide receiver.

RB Ollie Gordon (JR - OSU) 6’1, 225 lbs

Was the end of 2023 a fluke for Ollie Gordon? His early outing has been fairly underwhelming when he was considered one of the top backs of this class.

OSU HAS to get Ollie Gordon going!
I understand that teams are loading the box on many occasions, and that, as a result, the passing game is very effective, but, still, 17 for 45 isn't going to cut it week in and week out.

As with any part of a team that struggles, it's never… pic.twitter.com/Wgt175IADS

— OState Daily (@Ostate_Daily) September 15, 2024

The Oklahoma State offense as whole looks flat, but Gordon doesn’t have the decisive cutting and burst that he flashed last season. A 3.9, 2.9, and 2.4 YPC in games where the offense scored more than 35 points three times consecutively is concerning

QB Carson Beck (SR - Georgia) 6’4, 220 lbs

Any Heisman or QB1 talk is probably over after a tough game against Kentucky.

Carson Beck missed a couple of these on Saturday and that's out of character for him. pic.twitter.com/hfO5fJ2C9y

— Jake Rowe (@JakeMRowe) September 17, 2024

I’ll be the first to give credit where it’s due and say that the Wildcats have a top-notch defense fronted by who I think is a Top 10 prospect in Deone Walker. But Carson Beck has to be comfortable consistently throwing with anticipation across the middle of the field. The NFL only gets faster and he’ll have to be better displaying his evident arm talent on time. A key issue with new QBs entering the draft.

2025 Draft Pick Values

So let’s say you’re a rebuilding roster, have an excess of positional value, or just straight-up love to hoard draft picks like all the random cables that you swear you’ll need one day and want to buy picks. What are prices going for in this economy? Well I scrolled through values on Keep Trade Cut and listed them for you (because I care.)

Early 1sts

• Jonathan Taylor RB,  Indianapolis (don’t think we’re there yet)

• Jaylen Waddle WR, Miami

• Brock Purdy QB, San Francisco

• Trey McBride TE, Arizona (if you can buy him this cheap, do it)

Mid 1sts

• Jameson Williams WR, Detroit

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, Seattle

• Baker Mayfield QB, Tampa Bay

• Kyle Pitts TE, Atlanta

Late 1sts

• Michael Pittman Jr WR, Colts (might be time to take this deal)

• Brian Robinson Jr RB, Commanders (I’m buying for that price if competing)

• Isaiah Likely TE, Baltimore

• Rhamondre Stevenson RB, New England (I’m buying for that price if competing)

2nd Rounders

• Bo Nix QB, Denver (Yikes)

• Adonai Mitchell WR, Colts (I’ll buy at cost)

• Justin Fields QB, Steelers

• Jerome Ford RB, Cleveland (Sell)

2025 Draft Pick Trades

• Rome Odunze/’25 1st for Nico Collins/’27 3rd

• Amon-Ra St. Brown for Isaiah Likely/George Pickens/’25 1st

• Kimani Vidal/’25 1st for Brandon Aiyuk

• Brian Robinson Jr for ‘25 2nd

• Michael Pittman Jr for Alec Pierce/’25 2nd

• Justin Fields for ‘25 2nd/’26 2nd