Dynasty Deals: Grade the Trades

Photo: USA Today Sports

Winning a dynasty trade can be tough to judge. depending on the state of each roster involved in the deal. A team trying to win now has different needs than one starting a full rebuild. Combining those factors with the value of the players involved can make for a tricky evaluation.

This week, I gathered some submissions from Twitter and brought them to some of our Footballguys staff. Together, we analyzed the deals to help you all in your future dynasty trading.

Dynasty Trade 1 (from @ffyinzer):

Format: 12 teams, SF, PPR

• Receive: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Send: Josh Jacobs

Ryan Weisse’s Grade: A

The circumstances for both teams probably make this trade sensible, but acquiring a young wide receiver for an aging running back is always a win. I'd guess the team wanting Jacobs is in a win-now mode and needs a running back to improve in 2024. My concern is that Jacobs' deal is structured so that Green Bay has outs after every single season, meaning 2024 might be all you get out of him. They likely used a high first-round pick on Smith-Njigba last season, and I wonder if they would have traded that exact pick for Jacobs. At the very least, I would have wanted a second-round pick added to the Jacobs side, as acquiring the first wide receiver drafted in 2023 seems cheap.

Hutchinson Brown’s Grade: B+

This trade boils down to personal preference. I am going to lean with the Smith-Njigba side of this deal. While Jacobs could do good things in Green Bay, I'm worried about his horrid performance last season at an expiring age for running backs. Smith-Njigba has a make-or-break year coming up for his dynasty value. After disappointing a bit as a rookie, I expect him to make the leap and show why he was a first-round pick just last year.

I like the strategy here of investing in young wideouts, and one-for-one deals like this can lead to immense value. You can take advantage of managers who like a particular player on your roster a lot more than you do and get an asset you want from them.

Leo Paciga’s Grade: B

Context and roster build come into play with this deal - but in a vacuum, I’ll take the 22-year-old WR coming off of a somewhat disappointing rookie season (93 targets/63 catches/628 yards/4 TDs) as the WR3 behind Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. The risk with Smith-Njigba is a year-two drop in value if we don’t see expected improvements in productivity. Trading for an RB in May - even a proven commodity like Jacobs - is a strategy I generally avoid, even if it forces me to pay an August premium down the road after camp dust settles.

Dan Hindery's Grade: B

This trade requires some short-term pain for long-term gain. Jacobs is a fourth-round redraft pick and Smith-Njigba is going off the board at least three rounds later. Expect Jacobs to outscore Smith-Njigba in 2024. However, Jacobs is a running back entering his sixth NFL season. Expecting more than a couple more productive seasons is unwise, given the recent history of similar backs. Smith-Njigba just turned 22 and should be a productive fantasy producer for the next eight to ten seasons.

Chad Parsons' Grade: B+

I am generally not a fan of trading wide receivers for running back in the offseason. The key running back months are in-season and IF they are healthy and IF they are productive to a meaningful level. So, the timing of the deal is what keeps this from an "A" grade. That said, Smith-Njigba is one of the more overrated wide receiver assets, considering he is still blocked due to other talent in Seattle and will drop a significant amount in value if his statistics from 2023 occur yet again in 2024.